Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

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tailgater
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Re: Re:

#1721 Postby tailgater » Fri Sep 21, 2007 8:54 am

wxman57 wrote:
Cape Verde wrote:How in the heck did the center of circulation move that far north overnight?

I'm breathing a sigh of relief. I'm leaving on a hunting trip in a couple of hours and am supposed to return to Houston on Sunday. There is no way this is a Texas storm unless it does a magical movement like it appears it did overnight.


There were 2 centers last night, one up north, one south. The northern center became the focal point, the southern center is near 25.5N/87.6W and can be easily seen on satellite as a small rotation. I expect the NHC to upgrade 93L to TD 10 within the hour. Fairly tight center with max winds not far from the center. Definitely becoming tropical. Probably just a weak TS at landfall near the MS/LA border tomorrow.


And your thoughts on the Southern system, will it get asorbed or poof or what?
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Re: INVEST 93L: Northern Gulf : Discussions & Images

#1722 Postby ronjon » Fri Sep 21, 2007 8:57 am

I agree wxman57 - probably should have been classified as a TD at 5 am. What are your thoughts on the NW caribbean convective flareup?
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Re: INVEST 93L: Northern Gulf : Discussions & Images

#1723 Postby Cape Verde » Fri Sep 21, 2007 8:57 am

I didn't see anything about a northern circulation before heading for bed last night. I was stunned to see this. It actually looks fairly impressive, but just hundreds of miles away from where I expected to see it.

I actually am going hunting where Cheney did. But it will be dove, not quail, and the hunters will not generally be within point blank range of each other.

I guess I hope this storm makes minor tropical storm status. I don't know how many hours I've spent on this forum, mostly lurking, following this disturbance. It would feel like some sort of vindication of that effort if it becomes Jerry.

I know. That's stupid. But I'm just being honest.
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#1724 Postby Mattie » Fri Sep 21, 2007 8:57 am

Just something of interest and one storm I remember quite well . . . In 1985 - - -


An upper level low pressure system combined with a tropical wave developed a broad trough of low pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico on October 24. A rapid increase in cloudiness and convection led to the formation of a tropical depression on October 26. A high pressure system to its northeast forced it westward, where it became Tropical Storm Juan later on the 26th.

At the time and throughout its lifetime, Juan was very disorganized, and resembled a subtropical cyclone with its winds well away from the center. A developing trough brought the storm northward, where it became better organized. Early on October 28, Juan reached hurricane strength, and hours later it reached a peak of 85 mph (140 km/h) winds.

Under the influence of a large scale upper-level low pressure area, Juan executed a cyclonic loop off the Louisiana coast later on October 28. It turned northward, and hit near Morgan City, Louisiana on the morning of the 29th. Still under the influence of the low, Juan again looped to the southeast, and weakened to a tropical storm over land on the 29th, and emerged into the Gulf of Mexico on the 30th over Vermilion Bay.

Juan paralleled the southern Louisiana coastline and crossed the extreme southeast portion of the state on October 31. Over the open waters of the Gulf, Juan restrengthened to a 70 mph (110 km/h) storm, just before hitting near the Alabama/Florida border that night. Once over land, Juan rapidly weakened, and became extratropical over Tennessee on November 1. Its remnants accelerated northward into Canada by the morning of the 3rd. Of interest, an upper level low closed off in the wake of Juan, forming a new occluded cyclone, which added to the rainfall totals across Virginia and West Virginia. The combined impact of Juan and the occluded cyclone that formed in its wake led to a flood of record across West Virginia.


[edit] Impact
Hurricane Juan caused $1.5 billion in damage (1985 US dollars, $2.71 billion in 2005 USD), most of it from crop damage. At the time, Juan was the 8th costliest hurricane in history, and is currently the 24th. [1] It later caused extensive flooding across the Mid-Atlantic states as a partial remnant, causing an additional $1.3 billion and 50 deaths not included in its final effects.

From Wikepedia. . . .
Last edited by Mattie on Fri Sep 21, 2007 9:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#1725 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Sep 21, 2007 8:59 am

I see multiple circulations, this thing won't be much unless convection concentrates soon.
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#1726 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 21, 2007 9:00 am

Latest:

Image

Image

Image
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#1727 Postby mnjb28 » Fri Sep 21, 2007 9:08 am

Any chance of the low forming further south today ?
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#1728 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 21, 2007 9:10 am

latest:

Image

Image
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#1729 Postby Steve » Fri Sep 21, 2007 9:11 am

Definitely has that winter storm subtropical look to it on satellite IMHO. Is at least a depression, but probably nothing more than that. If it stays offshore, when the convection increases again this afternoon, there could be some nasty storms to the east and rotating around the center of circulation.

>>I suspected things would "gel' overnight but what is that in the central GOM?? Looks like banding is feeding into that too on the satellite?

One of the multiple centers that have been associated with 93L.
--------------------------------
Hey 57,

What do you see the playout for the endgame here? Are the models right, somewhat with a coast hugger, then some pinwheeling tropical moisture coming up from the W Caribbean?

Thanks.

Steve
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Re: INVEST 93L: Northern Gulf : Discussions & Images

#1730 Postby miamicanes177 » Fri Sep 21, 2007 9:13 am

Data from the NOAA aircraft indicates surface winds are sustained at 40mph. This means it will be tropical storm Jerry and bypass TD 10 status when the NHC has to upgrade it.
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#1731 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 21, 2007 9:15 am

355
URNT12 KNHC 211412
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL932007
A. 21/13:33:50Z
B. 29 deg 24 min N
085 deg 28 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 30 kt
E. 017 deg 5 nm
F. 092 deg 030 kt
G. 017 deg 005 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 23 C/ 459 m
J. 24 C/ 449 m
K. 21 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/1
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 04IIA INVEST OB 10
MAX FL WIND 30 KT N QUAD 13:32:00 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
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#1732 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 21, 2007 9:15 am

640
WHXX01 KWBC 211414
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1414 UTC FRI SEP 21 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE TEN (AL102007) 20070921 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070921 1200 070922 0000 070922 1200 070923 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.7N 85.3W 30.1N 86.4W 31.2N 87.9W 32.1N 89.8W
BAMD 28.7N 85.3W 29.9N 86.4W 30.8N 87.6W 31.6N 89.4W
BAMM 28.7N 85.3W 29.9N 86.4W 30.9N 87.7W 31.8N 89.5W
LBAR 28.7N 85.3W 29.9N 86.2W 31.2N 87.0W 32.3N 87.5W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 42KTS 48KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 42KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070923 1200 070924 1200 070925 1200 070926 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.5N 92.0W 38.7N 94.5W 42.7N 89.3W 43.7N 80.5W
BAMD 33.0N 91.7W 38.9N 95.0W 47.5N 86.7W 51.7N 59.4W
BAMM 33.2N 91.8W 38.6N 94.8W 45.1N 87.4W 47.9N 70.8W
LBAR 33.5N 87.7W 36.2N 88.1W 39.5N 85.1W 43.6N 73.5W
SHIP 51KTS 53KTS 46KTS 33KTS
DSHP 31KTS 27KTS 28KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.7N LONCUR = 85.3W DIRCUR = 330DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 27.4N LONM12 = 84.3W DIRM12 = 330DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 27.4N LONM24 = 83.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
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Re: INVEST 93L: Northern Gulf : Discussions & Images

#1733 Postby 'CaneFreak » Fri Sep 21, 2007 9:16 am

miamicanes177 wrote:Data from the NOAA aircraft indicates surface winds are sustained at 40mph. This means it will be tropical storm Jerry and bypass TD 10 status when the NHC has to upgrade it.


Must have been in a squall. :lol: :wink:
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Re:

#1734 Postby tailgater » Fri Sep 21, 2007 9:20 am

HURAKAN wrote:355
URNT12 KNHC 211412
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL932007
A. 21/13:33:50Z
B. 29 deg 24 min N
085 deg 28 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 30 kt
E. 017 deg 5 nm
F. 092 deg 030 kt
G. 017 deg 005 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 23 C/ 459 m
J. 24 C/ 449 m
K. 21 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/1
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 04IIA INVEST OB 10
MAX FL WIND 30 KT N QUAD 13:32:00 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

Those temps would say Tropical right?
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Re: INVEST 93L: Northern Gulf : Discussions & Images

#1735 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 21, 2007 9:23 am

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Re: INVEST 93L: Northern Gulf : Discussions & Images

#1736 Postby tailgater » Fri Sep 21, 2007 9:27 am

cycloneye wrote:http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Expect an advisory shortly.


there it is
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
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Re: INVEST 93L: Northern Gulf : Discussions & Images

#1737 Postby miamicanes177 » Fri Sep 21, 2007 9:28 am

Still says 30kts on the model runs so the NHC must believe the SFMR readings of tropical storm strength were not representative of the storms intensity
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Re: INVEST 93L: Northern Gulf : Discussions & Images

#1738 Postby tailgater » Fri Sep 21, 2007 9:33 am

TD BABY TD unoffical right now but NRL has it as No name 10
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Re: INVEST 93L: Northern Gulf : Discussions & Images

#1739 Postby MBryant » Fri Sep 21, 2007 9:36 am

Does anyone remember any system with multiple centers of rotation where the southern center of rotation became dominant? All the ones I remember have eventually organized around the northern or eastern centers.
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Re: INVEST 93L: Northern Gulf : Discussions & Images

#1740 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Sep 21, 2007 9:51 am

NONAME on NRL!
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