Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[AJC3]

It's pretty clear to see on the 00Z 500MB analysis charts. There's a weak H50 short wave trough over the lower MS valley.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/upaRAOB_500.gif

This will get kicked eastward over the next couple days as a much stronger short wave trough deepens upstream. This is forecast by all the global models to erode the western portion of the Atlantic ridge by 36 hours. If there was H50 forecast charts with 10M contours, it would make it much easier to see.

But in a couple of days Noel could be on SE Florida's doorstep. The timing of when this shortwave gets kicked east is absolutely critical.

Absolutely. There's little doubt it will make a close approach. My point was simply to point out to you where it was.

[Vortex]

Radar indicates center is now on or skirting cuban coast...

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 300456
AF307 0516A NOEL HDOB 12 20071030
044400 2040N 07253W 6540 03704 0095 +051 +051 163029 030 999 999 03
044430 2041N 07256W 6791 03394 0099 +066 +066 159031 032 999 999 03
044500 2042N 07258W 7040 03093 0103 +081 +081 152033 034 999 999 03
044530 2042N 07300W 7299 02793 0122 +083 +083 148031 032 999 999 03
044600 2043N 07302W 7574 02482 9990 +091 +999 141034 035 999 999 05
044630 2044N 07305W 7855 02177 9990 +120 +999 140034 034 999 999 05
044700 2045N 07307W 8132 01885 9990 +132 +999 136034 034 999 999 05
044730 2046N 07309W 8392 01603 9990 +164 +999 137033 034 019 006 05
044800 2046N 07311W 8630 01360 9990 +178 +999 137031 032 020 005 01
044830 2047N 07313W 8845 01147 9990 +196 +999 137030 031 020 005 01
044900 2048N 07315W 8985 01002 9990 +205 +999 136032 033 016 007 01
044930 2049N 07317W 9058 00930 9990 +208 +999 138032 032 017 006 01
045000 2049N 07319W 9081 00906 0071 +208 +194 142032 032 017 006 01
045030 2050N 07321W 9077 00908 0073 +205 +173 140033 033 018 007 00
045100 2051N 07323W 9077 00906 0071 +198 +182 139034 035 022 008 00
045130 2052N 07325W 9089 00894 0070 +194 +193 141035 036 022 008 00
045200 2052N 07327W 9080 00906 9990 +199 +999 140033 034 023 006 01
045230 2053N 07328W 9081 00906 9990 +196 +999 140030 031 026 007 01
045300 2054N 07330W 9147 00842 9990 +196 +999 131031 031 023 007 01
045330 2054N 07332W 9389 00608 0067 +213 +200 128030 032 023 007 00
$$
;

Continuing the descent.

[cycloneye]

00z CMC



Recurves very close to South Florida and then races NE while it turns into a very strong extratropical feature towards Halifax.

[RL3AO]

One thing for sure is that Noel will make one impressive extratropical storm.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 300506
AF307 0516A NOEL HDOB 13 20071030
045400 2055N 07334W 9643 00376 0063 +228 +217 120033 035 026 006 00
045430 2056N 07336W 9759 00266 0060 +242 +221 117033 034 021 005 00
045500 2056N 07338W 9740 00282 0058 +241 +223 118033 035 999 999 03
045530 2057N 07339W 9713 00305 0056 +240 +219 118035 036 999 999 03
045600 2058N 07341W 9724 00296 0057 +240 +222 118033 034 012 005 03
045630 2058N 07343W 9721 00299 0058 +240 +221 119035 036 023 006 00
045700 2059N 07345W 9720 00299 0058 +239 +221 120035 036 024 007 00
045730 2100N 07347W 9722 00299 0059 +240 +222 121034 036 024 007 00
045800 2101N 07349W 9729 00292 0058 +240 +222 122035 036 027 006 03
045830 2101N 07350W 9720 00299 0058 +240 +223 124034 035 029 006 00
045900 2102N 07352W 9722 00297 0058 +240 +225 123034 035 028 004 00
045930 2103N 07354W 9722 00298 0057 +240 +227 122033 034 026 006 00
050000 2104N 07355W 9720 00299 0057 +240 +227 122034 034 024 006 00
050030 2106N 07357W 9719 00297 0056 +240 +225 122035 036 029 006 00
050100 2107N 07358W 9722 00295 0056 +240 +224 121036 037 030 007 00
050130 2108N 07400W 9724 00294 0056 +239 +225 121035 036 030 007 00
050200 2109N 07402W 9719 00297 0056 +239 +223 121037 037 032 007 00
050230 2110N 07403W 9722 00296 0056 +238 +219 121038 038 031 009 00
050300 2112N 07405W 9720 00298 0056 +239 +224 121035 036 033 008 00
050330 2113N 07406W 9721 00296 0056 +237 +225 120035 036 033 009 00
$$
;

Operational altitude. 38 kt FL, 33 kt SFMR.

[cpdaman]

it may be skirting IR2 tends to show that little ball of convection moving due west not 285 or so but 270 275 IMO right into that little corner of cuba and like ernesto cuba maybe is starting to suck this thing in ....for a few hours

going to bed when i check computer around 8 am my guess is 21.3 north 76.4 west

just inland over cuba ................like ernesto

[gatorcane]

it may be skirting IR2 tends to show that little ball of convection moving due west not 285 or so but 270 275 IMO right into that little corner of cuba and like ernesto cuba maybe is starting to suck this thing in ....for a few hours

going to bed when i check computer around 8 am my guess is 21.3 north 76.4 west

just inland over cuba ................like ernesto

I don't think it will be inland. There is just not enough ridging to move it due West and islands don't "suck" storms in...

Noel also appears to be getting better organized tonight and still has plenty of time to strengthen

[Typhoon_Willie]

Fairly large system as well with tropical storm force winds extending out about 200 miles...

Another thing to consider when judging how close this thing will come.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 300516
AF307 0516A NOEL HDOB 14 20071030
050400 2114N 07408W 9722 00296 0055 +233 +228 122037 038 030 011 03
050430 2115N 07409W 9723 00293 0054 +234 +228 120038 039 033 009 03
050500 2116N 07411W 9721 00294 0052 +235 +226 117038 039 034 007 00
050530 2117N 07413W 9723 00291 0052 +234 +231 114036 037 030 008 00
050600 2117N 07415W 9722 00291 0051 +232 +231 114037 037 033 007 00
050630 2118N 07417W 9722 00293 0051 +234 +230 114037 038 032 007 00
050700 2119N 07419W 9719 00295 0051 +231 +231 118037 037 034 009 00
050730 2119N 07420W 9728 00284 0050 +229 +229 117035 037 027 010 00
050800 2120N 07422W 9721 00291 0051 +227 +227 128030 035 020 014 00
050830 2121N 07424W 9719 00292 0051 +224 +224 129027 029 021 007 00
050900 2121N 07426W 9724 00290 0051 +226 +225 129030 031 019 005 03
050930 2122N 07428W 9721 00292 0051 +225 +223 128030 031 024 004 00
051000 2122N 07429W 9722 00290 0051 +227 +222 128032 033 021 006 00
051030 2122N 07431W 9722 00291 0050 +229 +220 129034 035 028 004 00
051100 2122N 07433W 9720 00291 0051 +229 +215 131035 036 026 006 00
051130 2122N 07435W 9721 00290 0049 +228 +215 131037 038 029 004 00
051200 2122N 07437W 9721 00289 0048 +233 +204 128039 039 030 005 00
051230 2123N 07439W 9722 00289 0048 +235 +205 127038 039 031 005 00
051300 2123N 07441W 9722 00288 0047 +233 +214 127036 037 031 004 00
051330 2123N 07443W 9721 00288 0047 +234 +215 125038 039 032 005 00
$$
;

39 kt FL, 34 kt SFMR. Large TS wind field.

[Vortex]

noticed that...

[cpdaman]

you may be right gator i'm getting dizzy from looking at IR 2 and infared spinning for so long

can't tell if the part off the little corner of cuba that sticks out is the center or the blob on infared about 50 miles north east of that little corner ....i give up nite nite people

[gatorcane]

NWS Miami is predicting gusts up to 50mph for parts of South Florida..even if Noel misses.

Expect them to raise these winds if she gets closer to South Florida.

That could easily knock down limbs and create isolated to widely scattered power outages.......

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... +Statement

[destruction92]

Has anyone been plotting Noel's movement and track compared to the NHC's 11 PM forecast track?

Is Noel following the NHC track or is to the right or left?

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 300526
AF307 0516A NOEL HDOB 15 20071030
051400 2123N 07445W 9724 00285 0046 +233 +215 124040 041 032 004 00
051430 2123N 07447W 9722 00286 0045 +234 +217 123037 038 032 004 00
051500 2123N 07449W 9722 00286 0045 +233 +223 124035 036 030 005 00
051530 2123N 07451W 9721 00286 0044 +234 +232 123032 033 031 004 03
051600 2124N 07453W 9721 00287 0044 +235 +230 123033 034 028 004 00
051630 2124N 07455W 9721 00288 0043 +235 +227 124034 036 026 005 00
051700 2125N 07456W 9721 00286 0044 +228 +228 123034 035 024 006 00
051730 2126N 07458W 9720 00286 0044 +231 +224 123033 035 028 006 00
051800 2126N 07500W 9722 00286 0044 +232 +222 116028 029 024 005 00
051830 2126N 07502W 9723 00283 0043 +232 +223 109028 028 026 005 00
051900 2126N 07504W 9719 00286 0043 +231 +225 110029 030 026 006 00
051930 2126N 07506W 9722 00284 0043 +231 +226 110031 032 026 005 03
052000 2127N 07508W 9723 00283 0042 +232 +227 111033 033 028 004 00
052030 2127N 07510W 9722 00283 0042 +231 +228 110033 034 031 004 00
052100 2128N 07512W 9720 00284 0041 +234 +225 111033 033 032 006 00
052130 2128N 07513W 9720 00284 0040 +233 +226 109033 034 033 006 00
052200 2129N 07515W 9723 00280 0039 +232 +229 106033 035 034 005 00
052230 2130N 07517W 9722 00282 0039 +231 +231 104034 034 038 004 00
052300 2130N 07519W 9720 00283 0038 +235 +229 107035 035 034 007 03
052330 2131N 07521W 9715 00287 0038 +233 +225 108036 037 033 007 00
$$
;

38 kt SFMR.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Tough to tell. It looks right on track so far...

[Stratosphere747]

Until recon gets a fix, anything is subjective at this point. If the center is indeed near the Cuban coast then that of course will cause further limitations.

[gatorcane]

Miami Beach already is reporting near TS gusts with near TD sustained winds and the action hasn't even begun to start:

W PALM BEACH PTCLDY 78 71 79 E16 30.04F
FT LAUDER-EXEC PTCLDY 80 68 66 E14G23 30.02S
FT LAUDERDALE MOCLDY 81 68 64 E16G25 30.00F
POMPANO BEACH MOCLDY 80 68 66 E23G30 30.01F
PEMBROKE PINES LGT RAIN 79 69 71 NE17 30.03F
OPA LOCKA PTCLDY 80 70 71 NE17 30.01F
MIAMI PTCLDY 80 69 69 NE13G21 30.00F
MIAMI BEACH N/A 80 74 80 NE30G38 30.01S
WEST KENDALL MOCLDY 78 71 79 E16 29.99F
HOMESTEAD PTCLDY 77 72 84 E14G25 30.00S

[destruction92]

VERY INTERESTING WORDS FROM DEREK:

"The primary forecast issue is the timing of the trough off of Florida. Most models suggest that it will reach Noel about 100 miles east of Florida. However, GFDL and HWRF continue to make slight westward adjustments. The trough is not currently making any progress to the south and this will have to be monitored. For now, the forecast goes with the guidance and is similar to the previous forecast, except that the 120 hour position is a little closer to Canada."

[curtadams]

The models have a strong agreement now - skirting the Cuban coast as a slowly strengthening storm, turning at Andros island as a borderline hurricane, and then racing to the Maritimes as a powerful hybrid. CMC, NGP, and GFS all agree and the UKMET is similar except that is splits the storm in two in the Bahamas and has only the northern part race to the Marticimes. Unusually strong consensus for such a complicated scenario.