Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Stratosphere747]

They do not change the tracks on the intermediate advisory. The only changes are made with the newer initialization point.

[destruction92]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2007102912!!/

According to that picture, SoFla is by no means spared from the brunt of Noel....BUT, IS THIS A FRAME FROM THE NEW EURO???

Use the other drop down box on the right to choose the model run time. Your link shows 12UTC or 12z... wait for the new 00UTC run.

Its past 2 AM...I thought the Euro should be out by now. I was told by Stratosphere that the Euro comes out at 2:00AM.

[Vortex]

Euro comes out at 330

[Vortex]

Pretty much all the models are in line between the SE FL coast and Andros..Just a little in either direction and Noel is over SFL or Andros

[Stratosphere747]

I'm CST.

Sometimes the PSU site updates earlier.

[Vortex]

Latest satellite imagery shows a deep plume of moisture advecting from the carribean towards the east side of the circulation..This should give the system a boost as long as it remains just offshore..

[Vortex]

00Z GFDL Hot off the press..


Excellent initialization and shifts to the east passing east of Andros. Well see...

[ericinmia]

I'm CST.

Sometimes the PSU site updates earlier.

True....

Here is that link for those that would want it....

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewalltropatl.html

[Stratosphere747]

Thanks Eric.

Here I am mentioning stuff without providing the links. Past my bedtime.

[ericinmia]

Thanks Eric.

Here I am mentioning stuff without providing the links. Past my bedtime.

Hey no problem... Talking about bed times... I think there is no more to see here until morning, so I'm going to bed. I not as interested in the 5am advisory as much as I am for the 11am. I think by 11am we should have a good grasp on whether Noel is going to strengthen, and how far west he will head.

[Brent]

Noel stronger at 2am

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 55 MPH...90 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM CUBAN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

Has the NHC track changed since 11 PM...I have been informed that the NHC occasionally does tweek forecast tracks during intermediate advisories.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/gr ... p_3W.shtml

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... e#contents

Doesn't look different to me at all, and it doesn't look like it had a noticeable change on any of the intermediates today.

[RattleMan]

The center is closer to the coast of Cuba, 0.6 degrees more west, in the 2AM advisory compared to the 11pm advisory.

[vegastar]

000
URNT15 KNHC 300606
AF307 0516A NOEL HDOB 19 20071030
055400 2223N 07702W 9708 00322 0074 +224 +219 049041 042 027 004 00
055430 2223N 07703W 9708 00324 0075 +223 +219 051041 042 025 004 03
055500 2225N 07704W 9702 00329 0075 +223 +217 052041 042 999 999 03
055530 2225N 07702W 9704 00327 0075 +223 +219 047039 041 999 999 03
055600 2225N 07702W 9704 00327 0074 +224 +219 048039 039 031 003 00
055630 2224N 07700W 9704 00326 0073 +224 +221 047037 038 029 004 00
055700 2224N 07658W 9705 00325 0072 +224 +223 046036 038 031 004 00
055730 2224N 07657W 9708 00320 0071 +225 +223 048037 039 030 004 00
055800 2224N 07655W 9706 00322 0070 +228 +222 047035 038 029 005 00
055830 2224N 07654W 9713 00315 0070 +229 +222 049035 036 030 004 00
055900 2223N 07652W 9705 00323 0070 +227 +220 051037 038 033 004 00
055930 2223N 07651W 9716 00313 0071 +219 +219 053040 042 033 005 03
060000 2224N 07650W 9704 00323 0070 +221 +221 048039 042 032 006 03
060030 2224N 07649W 9708 00319 0070 +220 +220 054041 043 029 008 03
060100 2224N 07647W 9705 00321 0069 +224 +222 055039 041 027 005 03
060130 2224N 07646W 9708 00320 0068 +227 +222 058037 038 028 005 00
060200 2223N 07645W 9706 00321 0068 +227 +223 058036 039 024 004 00
060230 2223N 07643W 9705 00321 0067 +230 +217 061039 040 030 003 00
060300 2223N 07642W 9706 00318 0066 +230 +217 059037 039 030 004 00
060330 2223N 07641W 9712 00312 0066 +230 +218 055037 038 033 003 00
$$
;

[vegastar]

000
URNT15 KNHC 300616
AF307 0516A NOEL HDOB 20 20071030
060400 2223N 07639W 9710 00314 0065 +230 +220 055039 040 034 004 00
060430 2223N 07638W 9707 00317 0065 +229 +216 055040 042 035 002 00
060500 2222N 07637W 9707 00316 0065 +230 +215 054040 042 034 004 00
060530 2222N 07635W 9711 00312 0064 +229 +215 053039 040 036 004 00
060600 2222N 07634W 9709 00315 0064 +229 +215 052039 040 033 004 00
060630 2222N 07632W 9703 00320 0065 +229 +215 053039 041 035 002 00
060700 2222N 07631W 9713 00311 0064 +229 +216 056040 042 035 003 00
060730 2222N 07630W 9711 00312 0064 +229 +216 055040 041 035 003 00
060800 2222N 07628W 9702 00321 0064 +229 +218 057037 039 034 003 00
060830 2222N 07627W 9708 00315 0064 +230 +215 056039 039 034 003 00
060900 2222N 07626W 9705 00316 0063 +229 +220 056037 038 032 004 00
060930 2222N 07624W 9709 00314 0062 +229 +217 055038 038 034 004 00
061000 2222N 07623W 9706 00315 0062 +225 +225 054037 038 032 003 00
061030 2221N 07621W 9708 00313 0064 +209 +209 057036 037 038 010 00
061100 2221N 07620W 9701 00319 0063 +206 +206 053034 035 035 008 00
061130 2221N 07619W 9709 00309 0062 +215 +215 052039 042 034 007 00
061200 2221N 07617W 9714 00306 0061 +222 +222 056041 042 035 003 00
061230 2221N 07616W 9706 00313 0062 +215 +215 056042 042 038 006 00
061300 2221N 07615W 9705 00310 0062 +204 +204 052043 046 035 008 00
061330 2221N 07613W 9716 00302 0062 +204 +204 056042 044 038 008 00
$$
;

[vegastar]

000
URNT15 KNHC 300626
AF307 0516A NOEL HDOB 21 20071030
061400 2221N 07612W 9707 00312 0060 +216 +216 061040 041 034 004 00
061430 2221N 07611W 9710 00309 0059 +224 +223 061045 047 034 004 00
061500 2221N 07609W 9702 00315 0059 +223 +223 059042 043 036 004 00
061530 2221N 07608W 9713 00306 0059 +213 +213 058042 044 039 005 00
061600 2221N 07607W 9706 00310 0056 +215 +215 060044 045 038 005 00
061630 2220N 07605W 9708 00306 0053 +223 +221 061043 043 037 005 00
061700 2220N 07604W 9709 00304 0053 +224 +223 058041 042 036 003 00
061730 2220N 07603W 9708 00305 0054 +222 +222 060038 040 035 005 00
061800 2220N 07601W 9707 00306 0054 +221 +221 059036 036 035 004 00
061830 2220N 07600W 9710 00304 0053 +224 +224 067038 040 035 005 00
061900 2220N 07559W 9702 00309 0053 +220 +220 065039 040 034 006 00
061930 2220N 07557W 9706 00304 0055 +220 +220 064038 041 034 006 00
062000 2220N 07556W 9705 00307 0055 +222 +222 067040 042 036 006 00
062030 2220N 07555W 9710 00303 0055 +225 +225 068042 043 037 005 00
062100 2220N 07553W 9702 00310 0054 +226 +224 072037 040 036 005 00
062130 2219N 07552W 9719 00298 0054 +222 +222 067038 042 035 004 00
062200 2219N 07551W 9713 00300 0055 +214 +214 069038 040 039 007 00
062230 2219N 07549W 9707 00306 0054 +220 +220 070040 042 036 006 00
062300 2219N 07548W 9709 00305 0053 +220 +220 070038 040 038 004 00
062330 2219N 07547W 9705 00310 0056 +222 +222 072034 035 039 011 00
$$
;

[vegastar]

000
URNT15 KNHC 300636
AF307 0516A NOEL HDOB 22 20071030
062400 2219N 07545W 9709 00305 0054 +226 +220 079034 034 113 008 00
062430 2219N 07544W 9709 00304 0053 +226 +221 080034 034 035 006 00
062500 2219N 07542W 9708 00305 0053 +224 +220 080034 034 036 007 00
062530 2219N 07541W 9706 00305 0052 +220 +220 076035 035 038 008 00
062600 2219N 07540W 9710 00301 0051 +219 +219 079034 035 038 008 00
062630 2219N 07538W 9705 00305 0052 +220 +220 080035 036 040 009 00
062700 2218N 07537W 9711 00299 0051 +220 +220 080037 038 040 009 03
062730 2218N 07536W 9703 00306 0052 +219 +219 079035 036 999 999 03
062800 2216N 07536W 9709 00301 0052 +220 +220 077036 037 036 008 00
062830 2215N 07536W 9709 00309 0052 +220 +220 077036 037 035 007 00
062900 2213N 07536W 9709 00289 0038 +219 +219 077034 035 034 007 00
062930 2212N 07536W 9706 00289 0038 +220 +220 079036 037 034 007 00
063000 2210N 07536W 9705 00309 0056 +213 +213 078038 039 036 008 00
063030 2209N 07536W 9706 00311 0060 +208 +208 084037 037 038 015 00
063100 2207N 07536W 9705 00310 0062 +189 +189 086037 038 042 016 00
063130 2205N 07536W 9709 00305 0059 +199 +199 084038 038 045 016 00
063200 2204N 07536W 9715 00306 0065 +209 +209 079031 033 035 008 00
063230 2202N 07536W 9700 00326 0070 +198 +198 084030 032 039 019 00
063300 2201N 07536W 9712 00305 0064 +196 +196 086032 035 046 022 00
063330 2159N 07536W 9705 00304 0055 +209 +209 091034 035 035 012 00
$$
;

[vegastar]

000
URNT15 KNHC 300646
AF307 0516A NOEL HDOB 23 20071030
063400 2158N 07536W 9709 00303 0050 +222 +220 094029 030 028 006 00
063430 2156N 07536W 9704 00306 0050 +223 +223 090028 029 030 005 00
063500 2155N 07536W 9709 00301 0050 +224 +224 089028 030 028 005 00
063530 2153N 07536W 9708 00304 0048 +225 +224 088029 031 029 004 00
063600 2152N 07536W 9709 00299 0047 +227 +219 091029 030 028 004 00
063630 2150N 07536W 9711 00298 0047 +228 +220 092033 034 028 004 00
063700 2149N 07536W 9704 00300 0040 +228 +221 092033 033 028 004 00
063730 2147N 07536W 9710 00293 0034 +226 +222 090032 033 030 002 00
063800 2146N 07536W 9705 00287 0028 +225 +225 088031 032 030 002 00
063830 2144N 07536W 9712 00287 0036 +225 +225 090031 032 029 004 03
063900 2143N 07535W 9704 00282 0023 +225 +225 096032 033 031 006 03
063930 2143N 07534W 9707 00273 0020 +215 +215 101032 034 039 019 00
064000 2142N 07532W 9704 00286 0029 +198 +198 094028 028 045 021 00
064030 2142N 07531W 9705 00288 0031 +204 +204 092030 032 046 021 00
064100 2141N 07530W 9707 00284 0031 +211 +211 098027 028 044 019 00
064130 2140N 07529W 9709 00282 0030 +228 +228 102029 031 032 009 00
064200 2140N 07527W 9703 00296 0032 +226 +226 110034 036 039 006 00
064230 2139N 07526W 9710 00284 0028 +222 +222 111038 039 041 006 00
064300 2139N 07525W 9705 00276 0019 +214 +214 110037 038 041 010 00
064330 2138N 07524W 9706 00279 0026 +219 +219 110038 039 041 010 00
$$
;

[vegastar]

000
URNT15 KNHC 300656
AF307 0516A NOEL HDOB 24 20071030
064400 2138N 07523W 9706 00287 0032 +225 +225 111035 037 041 003 00
064430 2137N 07521W 9710 00284 0032 +225 +225 110035 036 039 004 00
064500 2137N 07520W 9707 00285 0032 +226 +226 110035 036 040 004 00
064530 2136N 07519W 9715 00282 0032 +228 +228 115035 036 041 004 00
064600 2136N 07518W 9703 00289 0029 +227 +227 116035 036 038 005 00
064630 2135N 07517W 9709 00285 0030 +227 +227 119034 036 038 005 00
064700 2135N 07515W 9704 00293 0035 +225 +225 123032 034 036 007 00
064730 2134N 07514W 9712 00283 0035 +230 +223 126035 035 036 008 00
064800 2134N 07513W 9706 00296 0037 +229 +227 127033 033 035 003 00
064830 2133N 07512W 9706 00292 0035 +228 +226 126032 033 036 003 00
064900 2133N 07510W 9699 00300 0037 +227 +227 125030 031 034 003 00
064930 2132N 07509W 9709 00289 0035 +229 +226 126032 033 036 003 00
065000 2132N 07508W 9706 00289 0034 +227 +224 126032 033 034 005 00
065030 2131N 07506W 9708 00289 0035 +225 +223 127032 033 035 003 00
065100 2131N 07505W 9705 00293 0036 +225 +223 126031 032 036 002 00
065130 2130N 07504W 9710 00294 0040 +224 +217 124033 034 035 004 00
065200 2130N 07503W 9706 00296 0040 +223 +212 125033 034 035 005 00
065230 2129N 07501W 9710 00289 0037 +223 +216 124032 034 033 005 00
065300 2129N 07500W 9707 00289 0035 +225 +217 122031 033 036 002 00
065330 2128N 07459W 9708 00290 0035 +225 +218 127028 029 035 001 00
$$
;

[vegastar]

000
URNT15 KNHC 300717
AF307 0516A NOEL HDOB 25 20071030
065400 2128N 07458W 9707 00290 0035 +224 +220 129031 032 034 003 00
065430 2127N 07456W 9711 00287 0035 +222 +214 129031 032 032 003 00
065500 2127N 07455W 9709 00290 0038 +224 +210 127029 030 029 003 00
065530 2126N 07454W 9711 00289 0037 +225 +218 129032 033 031 004 00
065600 2126N 07452W 9709 00279 0026 +226 +220 130029 031 029 002 00
065630 2125N 07451W 9709 00279 0025 +220 +220 139029 030 028 004 00
065700 2125N 07450W 9704 00281 0024 +206 +206 150024 025 034 011 00
065730 2124N 07448W 9711 00275 0027 +198 +198 144026 027 040 018 00
065800 2124N 07447W 9707 00281 0027 +199 +199 133016 022 045 027 00
065830 2123N 07446W 9719 00268 0027 +200 +200 131020 024 047 030 00
065900 2123N 07444W 9712 00276 0027 +209 +209 122026 027 035 020 00
065930 2122N 07443W 9705 00283 0024 +218 +218 126029 031 034 013 00
070000 2122N 07442W 9711 00281 0026 +218 +218 122035 037 032 009 00
070030 2121N 07441W 9705 00287 0027 +223 +223 123037 039 038 008 00
070100 2121N 07439W 9709 00281 0025 +226 +226 122040 041 038 008 00
070130 2120N 07438W 9705 00284 0027 +226 +226 122037 039 037 008 00
070200 2120N 07437W 9705 00285 0028 +226 +226 125036 037 039 007 00
070230 2119N 07436W 9715 00279 0031 +226 +226 125035 037 045 005 00
070300 2119N 07434W 9713 00284 0031 +225 +225 126036 038 038 009 00
070330 2118N 07433W 9703 00288 0030 +223 +223 124033 035 037 008 00
$$
;

[vegastar]

000
URNT15 KNHC 300723
AF307 0516A NOEL HDOB 26 20071030
070400 2118N 07432W 9714 00281 0029 +226 +226 123037 038 038 009 00
070430 2117N 07431W 9706 00288 0030 +228 +228 124036 038 037 008 00
070500 2117N 07429W 9703 00285 0027 +230 +228 124036 037 040 007 00
070530 2116N 07428W 9712 00281 0031 +230 +225 125040 041 040 006 00
070600 2116N 07427W 9702 00293 0032 +230 +224 128040 041 039 005 00
070630 2115N 07426W 9706 00292 0032 +229 +228 124036 037 037 006 00
070700 2115N 07425W 9706 00290 0034 +229 +227 122038 039 038 007 00
070730 2114N 07423W 9706 00292 0034 +227 +227 126039 040 038 007 00
070800 2114N 07422W 9704 00295 0036 +227 +227 124038 039 039 005 00
070830 2113N 07421W 9709 00288 0035 +225 +225 123039 040 039 005 00
070900 2113N 07420W 9706 00292 0037 +222 +222 128038 038 040 005 00
070930 2113N 07419W 9707 00293 0039 +221 +221 126038 039 039 009 00
071000 2112N 07417W 9705 00294 0038 +220 +220 126036 037 039 009 00
071030 2112N 07416W 9710 00290 0040 +221 +221 128038 040 039 010 00
071100 2111N 07415W 9706 00293 0040 +222 +222 129037 040 039 010 00
071130 2111N 07414W 9710 00290 0040 +225 +225 125036 037 039 008 00
071200 2110N 07412W 9709 00296 0043 +227 +227 126038 039 039 007 00
071230 2110N 07411W 9703 00300 0041 +225 +225 127037 038 042 006 00
071300 2109N 07410W 9708 00293 0040 +228 +224 129039 040 039 009 00
071330 2109N 07409W 9707 00296 0040 +225 +225 129036 037 039 008 00
$$
;