Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[RL3AO]

Thunderstorms flaring over the Yucatan. Lets see what happens tonight near the Yucatan.

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

even in that high shear its influence is beginning to be turn the ll winds. And the WV loop shows that for some reason the shear doesn't look as nasty right along the coast of Mexico's West side of the Yucatan.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[Sanibel]

The weak surface feature is moving slowly. This could be around for the shear decrease tuesday.

[lrak]

6 PM (22) Sep 23 78 (26) 69 (21) 29.81 (1009) WNW 12 Campeche, Mexico

[Nimbus]

You can see the convection coming off the Yucatan has a little spin to it. Its moving pretty slowly so it might consolidate tuesday otherwise its just another moisture pump for the gulf coast.

[Extremeweatherguy]

While there is lots of shear to the NW of the system, does anyone else notice that shear is actually dropping right over the top of it ATM?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

[mattpetre]

Looks to me like this could be in an environment and location quite a bit like Humberto by Tuesday morning. I don't think we'll see intensification like that, but I do think we'll see a TS out of this one by mid-week. I'd be more interested in this feature than anything else out there right now.

[matigre]

Living in the Humberto Environment could you please give me some science behind the "possible TS" by midweek? I have a cast of characters in an elementary school hanging on my every pronouncement... like, "no six weeks' tests due to you won't be here tomorrow kids..." Thanks!

[cycloneye]

94L is gone from NRL.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[Brent]

Next!

[HeeBGBz]

I work where some of the hurricane hunters board their animals. One called today and extended the pet boarding time because instead of going home they were being sent to investigate this storminess sometime soon.

I was away from the news and computer all day today. The rains and weather we got today was what I was expecting to get from TD10. It made me wonder if it was coming from the 94L. It had a tropical feel to it. Hard rain and a nice breezyness.

[Ed Mahmoud]

With the convection further North dying down a bit, maybe the weak low near the NW tip of the Yucatan might have less competition. Big shear to the West, but the CIMMS shear map suggests it isn't too bad right where it is at.

Maybe this will be the last comment before thread lockage, but I give 94L a 25% chance of returning to the NRL page as an active invest and this thread getting unlocked.

[Rainband]

While there is lots of shear to the NW of the system, does anyone else notice that shear is actually dropping right over the top of it ATM?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

I don't think so. It's gone from NRL

[tailgater]

While there is lots of shear to the NW of the system, does anyone else notice that shear is actually dropping right over the top of it ATM?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

I don't think so. It's gone from NRL

Gone but it looks as good as ever to my eyes, lots of shear to the west, still might want to watch this for a while.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

[RL3AO]

I still think people should watch the area just off the Yucatan coast. I would have waited until morning to kill the invest.

[Stormcenter]

I definitely would not put the stake in 94L just yet.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[vaffie]

It'll be back by morning, for sure. Convection is building rapidly and beginning to wrap around what looks like a well defined center of circulation due west of Merida in the Bay of Campeche.

[cycloneye]

I remember 90L was gone from NRL,but returned and the rest is history.In this case it may not occur,but it cant be discounted.

[ROCK]

It'll be back by morning, for sure. Convection is building rapidly and beginning to wrap around what looks like a well defined center of circulation due west of Merida in the Bay of Campeche.

yep, I see it very well....lets see if it persists through the night and into tomorrow......BTW- check out the GFS through 72hrs.....interesting indeed....

[Stratosphere747]

It'll be back by morning, for sure. Convection is building rapidly and beginning to wrap around what looks like a well defined center of circulation due west of Merida in the Bay of Campeche.

yep, I see it very well....lets see if it persists through the night and into tomorrow......BTW- check out the GFS through 72hrs.....interesting indeed....

18z GFS?

Nothing at all there...