TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[wxmann_91]

Models more often underestimate shear than overestimate it. Read: there's a large TUTT in the western Atlantic. Yet it seems half of the people here believe the shear will not materialize and this will become a major. I'm willing to bet this does not become a major within the next week. After that, a ridge drives this towards the US, and that is when we may need to watch it a bit closer, but I still don't think the Andrew/Katrina comparisons are valid. It's too early and this has a better chance of dissipating than becoming a major, IMO. (at least within the next week)

[canegrl04]

Latest:



TD 8 making a comeback.

Hello,Ingrid

[windstorm99]

A comeback i say YES....

[jaxfladude]

TD#8, please make up your mind....

[O Town]

Okay could someone please explain to me how to tell if the barbs are contaminated or not. I heard this said on a few different occasions and just want to know so I can determine that as well. Thanks.

Read the legend on the image. Black barbs are contaminated.

LOL, thanks.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

We are about ready to find out how right or wrong I'm, also test the quickscat. I hope the nhc sends out a special Advisorie for ingrid if they do find it to be a tropical storm.

[TheShrimper]

Damn, what has happened here the last 6 hrs.? Not that anyone is expecting longevity from this TD, but what a change over that time frame. Not a bad looking little system now. It'll keep interest up for a little longer now with the current representation.

[windstorm99]

[TheShrimper]

If that is the case, they'll wait till 11 PM to classify it. They won't be done schlepping around in there until 9-10 PM.

[Brent]

There won't be a special advisory due to it being in the middle of nowhere, but we should get an indication from NRL or the 0z models beforehand.

I fully expect Ingrid at 11.

[Ola]

We are about ready to find out how right or wrong I'm, also test the quickscat. I hope the nhc sends out a special Advisorie for ingrid if they do find it to be a tropical storm.

If they dont send a special advisory it will again fall appart before 11pm and no upgrade will be possible. LOL. If a system is a TS between advisories and always comes down to TD right before the advisory, was it ever a TS if they dont have a chance to upgrade it? Does it count to total number of storms?

[windstorm99]

My concern with TD8 which seems to be making a comeback is with this slow movement it could survive those unfavorable upper level winds just ahead of it.If it does i think it has the potential to be a problem for the east caost of florida as a similar scenario to katrina.A dominant easterly flow regime into next week will push what ever is out in that region towards florida.

Katrina is the sense of finding a favorable enviroment.

[cycloneye]

There won't be a special advisory due to it being in the middle of nowhere, but we should get an indication from NRL or the 0z models beforehand.

I fully expect Ingrid at 11.

Bingo!.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think NHC can wait for the 11 pm AST advisory if this the AC does find a 40 knot tropical storm, it is days from land, and at least a couple of days away from requiring any watches.


I've seen mention of a double standard between Gulf systems and Deep Tropics systems in the Mid-Atlantic, but NHC really has to be quicker on the trigger when a wave that may or may not be a TD, or a TD that may or may not have become a TS, as Gulf systems are closer to land.

[windstorm99]

At the same time this could achieve tropical storm status tonight, only to fizzle again tomorrow with the combination of the diurnal minimum and increasing shear.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If it makes it up to minimal TS, than poofs before the advisory, it'd probably be called a TS in the post season analysis.

[Fego]

Bingo! ???????????
what? what>????
Ingrid?

[dizzyfish]

I'm not in the same room as the TV but I swear I just heard the local met say the I word. I ran in there real quick but I missed it.

BTW they have been all over Humberto ramping up last night.

One more thing-

This from the Tampa Bay NWS this morning...

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...FRONTAL TROUGH WILL WASH
OUT OVER THE STATE AT START OF PERIOD. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A
HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
BAHAMAS WILL BRING A DRIER NORTHEAST WIND THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE
LATTER WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE. FEATURES ALOFT WILL CAUSE
FLUCTUATIONS IN DAILY WEATHER HERE. WEAK TROUGHING SUNDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR NEAR NORMAL RAIN CHANCES. MONDAY AND TUESDAY A DEEPER
LOW WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE STATE...FORCING A DRIER FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE STATE. THEN BY WEDNESDAY THE DGEX AND GFS BRING THIS
LOW AND THE WAVE ACROSS THE STATE...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.

They didn't mention the wave/low this afternoon - but I bet they do tomorrow.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If it makes it up to minimal TS, than poofs before the advisory, it'd probably be called a TS in the post season analysis.

Example from 2006-

Unnamed Tropical Storm
(AL022006)
17-18 July 2006
Eric S. Blake and John L. Beven
National Hurricane Center
15 December 2006
As part of its routine post-season review, the Tropical Prediction Center/National
Hurricane Center (TPC/NHC) occasionally identifies a previously undesignated tropical or
subtropical cyclone based on new data or meteorological interpretation. The TPC/NHC reanalysis
of 2006 has re-classified a short-lived system as a tropical storm. The storm remained
offshore of the northeastern United States and Nova Scotia and dissipated as a tropical cyclone
before moving across Newfoundland.


Link

[gatorcane]

wow its blowing up this evening....

TS Ingrid? Looks like she is a fighter and I think baffling those at the NHC and on this board.