CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[KFDM Meteorologist]

What a joke though. Ok it went from Galveston at 12Z to Sabine Pass Texas at 18Z.

[hial2]

One of our local weather guys just said that with the new models out, this was much better for us (here in Palm Beach County) because it looked like it would go into the Florida Straits. I just wonder why they say things like that when it's so far out. I remember he was the same one who told us that Francis was not coming our way as well. Just seems a little early to say anything one way or the other in my opinion.

With this new model,he's right....when the next run comes out,who knows??.....The track error this far out is hundreds of miles..
I have yet to see one accurate model one week or so from possible landfall...IMO,this thing could still go anywhere from C.A to complete CONUS miss..

[canegrl04]

One of our local weather guys just said that with the new models out, this was much better for us (here in Palm Beach County) because it looked like it would go into the Florida Straits. I just wonder why they say things like that when it's so far out. I remember he was the same one who told us that Francis was not coming our way as well. Just seems a little early to say anything one way or the other in my opinion.

Utterly stupid .Any professional would be saying "too early to tell" right now

[weatherguru18]

What a joke though. Ok it went from Galveston at 12Z to Sabine Pass Texas at 18Z.

Rita was just there!

[Brent]

My head hurts.

Last night=Recurve
6z=Florida
12z=Middle TX
18z=TX/LA border

Predictions for 0z?

[Tenspeed]

This is not looking good for LA.

[x-y-no]

One of our local weather guys just said that with the new models out, this was much better for us (here in Palm Beach County) because it looked like it would go into the Florida Straits. I just wonder why they say things like that when it's so far out. I remember he was the same one who told us that Francis was not coming our way as well. Just seems a little early to say anything one way or the other in my opinion.

Utterly stupid .Any professional would be saying "too early to tell" right now

As Derek would say, that guy should be shown the red card.

Totally irresponsible.

[destruction92]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_slp_228l.gif

Landfall Sabine River

with this track, Houston appears to be in better condition...actually, this track is a little east of Rita...so less impact than what Rita did, which wasn't much for Houston.

Louisiana is a different story. Trending east...

[Opal storm]

My head hurts.

Last night=Recurve
6z=Florida
12z=Middle TX
18z=TX/LA border

Predictions for 0z?

0z=Sharp East turn back to Africa.

[cycloneye]

Oil up

[PTPatrick]

What are the synopitcs in the end game there KDFM...that is...is there like a high starting to build back that nudges back west through the gulf. It almost appears as it is headed towards Pensacola from Cuba but then more west. Just curious if that is the case. Folks are near Mobile (and I will be there next week too). I saw this run is more north so I can assume tonight it could have it coming into NOLA(which it did the very first day this rolled off africa I think).

[weatherguru18]

This is not looking good for LA.

How can you say that? It's likely to end up in tin-buck-tu (or however you spell it) for all we know.

[shannon]

Hial2- thats my point, it just seems to soon to be making guesses at where it's going. It could go anywhere.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

It's all going to depend on the weakness at that time over TX to Alabama. Models may now begin to trend east for here on out, we'll see.

[Wx_Warrior]

Let's hope for SETX/SWLA sake that's the case...I need some Jaiger.

[Opal storm]

It's all going to depend on the weakness at that time over TX to Alabama. Models may now begin to trend east for here on out, we'll see.

So your narrowing it down from TX to AL? It's a bit soon to do that, the weakness could occur over the Bahamas like it was showing before.

[Scorpion]

00z.. probably Mexico
6z... out to sea
12z...Florida

[storms in NC]

It's all going to depend on the weakness at that time over TX to Alabama. Models may now begin to trend east for here on out, we'll see.

Sound about what Ernesto did

[sunnyday]

That well-known met that I mentioned once before may still be right if the storm takes a sudden, unexpected turn north into S. Fl. I, for one, think S. Fl. will definitely dodge this bullet, but it's just a feeling.

[Wx_Warrior]

The problem is that everyone has that "feeling" and someone is going to be upset.