TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[Blown Away]

The NHC has Ingrid back to a TD at the end of the forecast period, does that likely mean the NHC is expecting the TD to continue to dissipate?

[gatorcane]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDMLB&max=10

OUT OF MELBOURNE-
VERY STRONG RIDGE with Atlantic ridge merging with a contental
ridge. TD 8 will likely NOT recurve.
Mon-thu this thing goes WNW for 7 days..that would
bring it to the Bahamas...

gatorcane mentioned this earlier.

MON-THU...THE CONTINENTAL RIDGE RIDING BEHIND THE DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHERE IT
WILL MERGE WITH THE ATLC RIDGE. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS LOCATED SO FAR
TO THE N...ANY STORM SYSTEMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE CONUS WILL BE
FORCED UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE WHERE THEIR ABILITY TO PUSH
THE RIDGE AXIS BACK TO THE S WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED. THE RESULT
WILL BE A DOMINANT ERLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
THESE ERLIES COULD PUSH A T-WAVE ACROSS FL BY MID WEEK.

I hope this doesn't come to pass.Otherwise,Florida and the Gulf have alot to worry about next week I noticed the media aren't even mentioning td 8 right now,but after this becomes Ingrid,they'll be all over it

not good if that pans out for Florida....TD 8 is a fighter and it starts making you wonder if just maybe she has something in store....

Look at her this morning and now -- big difference despite all the shear and bad conditions.

[hurricanetrack]

Looking at the 18z GFS at 200mb in 120 hours, notice on the link provided where Ingrid/TD8/naked low/whatever would possibly be on the map. Look really close in there around 17-19 north and 58-60 west and ESPECIALLY just south of there. Not much in the way of destructive shearing winds. In fact, lots of light southerly winds in most cases- perhaps some SSW winds at 10-15 knots?

Take a looky....you'll see. If this thing is in that area, it has a decent little niche carved out for itself to at least not die....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120m.gif

[aguaviva]

In fairness to NHC they did forecast it to strenghten to a TS, although they may have been slightly conservative with respect to windspeed.

Now, someone else mentioned the possibility that the storm may, because it is moving so slowly,miss and survive the shear. When is shear expected to subside in the Leewards area? How many days for the storm to reach 18N and 61W at current and forecasted speeds?

[gatorcane]

Talk about some ridging down the road...look at the atmospheric pressure predictions by the various global models...

and also note all the ridging across Canada. There won't be any shortwaves or cold fronts coming down next week it looks like after the well-advertised one passes by in several days.

Unlikely we'll see a fish here in my opinion:

GFS 144 hours:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

CMC 144 hours:
Note with this model it shows TD 8 as a tropical storm approaching the northern bahamas
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

NOGAPS 144 hours:
It shows TD 8 finding some weakness NE of the it. Note in the last NHC discussion this is very unlikely but look at the ridging over the CONUS again.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... hour=144hr

[deltadog03]

Now, ******IF****** the crazy uncle is right with that synoptic set up and where TD8/Ingrid is then FL will be in trouble!

edit.... same with GFS

[gatorcane]

Lets also take a look at the wind shear tendency. Notice the big TUTT low over the north central Caribbean -- doesn't matter because TD 8 is not likely to go there.

There is that swath of high shear between TD8 and the area north of the Greater Antilles --
that is exactly where/why the NHC thinks this will be downgraded to a depression.

BUT -

after that between Puerto Rico to Florida and the SE Coast wind shear continues to lighten...so conditions could improve it looks like

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

37 knots flight level at .9=38 mph at the surface. So borderline. But the crow is cooking for me, if they don't find slightly higher winds.

[aguaviva]

Looking at the 18z GFS at 200mb in 120 hours, notice on the link provided where Ingrid/TD8/naked low/whatever would possibly be on the map. Look really close in there around 17-19 north and 58-60 west and ESPECIALLY just south of there. Not much in the way of destructive shearing winds. In fact, lots of light southerly winds in most cases- perhaps some SSW winds at 10-15 knots?

Take a looky....you'll see. If this thing is in that area, it has a decent little niche carved out for itself to at least not die....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov mb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_200_120m.gif

I guess you answered one of my questions.

[Extremecane]

37kt from far from center is pretty good. They havnt even made it in the very strong convection.

[canegrl04]

37kt from far from center is pretty good. They havnt even made it in the very strong convection.

Guessing they will find 45mph winds

[Windtalker2]

37kt from far from center is pretty good. They havnt even made it in the very strong convection.

Guessing they will find 45mph winds

I say 50-55mph winds

[aguaviva]

37kt from far from center is pretty good. They havnt even made it in the very strong convection.

I noticed that also. The reading was at 15 north and change, aobut 35 nm from the official center at least.

[jhamps10]

I say 45-50 MPH winds.

[deltadog03]

I was gonna say...there not even close the center yet right??? Looked like they were flying around the system to get data for the HWRF first.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

They would need to find 44 knot flight level winds to support 45 mph at the surface. In 38 or so knots at flight level to make this a tropical storm. If they are using .8 reduce they would need to find 44 knot flight level to make this a tropical storm.

[ConvergenceZone]

As I have been saying for the past 3 days, I do not
see this weakening, and I do see it becoming a threat
to the SE US with a highest risk from South Florida
to the Carolinas.

Also as I have been saying for the past 3 days and
will continue to say, I expect a major hurricane in 5 days.
The shear forecasts were exaggerated since GFS and other
models love to exaggerate trough-shear strength.
And correspondingly, the ridge has been underestimated.
The further south this goes, the greater the threat
to 1) The Caribbean Islands/Bahamas and 2) SE Florida

oh brother...... Is there EVER a depression or storm that you don't
predict to be a major hurricane?

[destruction92]

As I have been saying for the past 3 days, I do not
see this weakening, and I do see it becoming a threat
to the SE US with a highest risk from South Florida
to the Carolinas.

Also as I have been saying for the past 3 days and
will continue to say, I expect a major hurricane in 5 days.
The shear forecasts were exaggerated since GFS and other
models love to exaggerate trough-shear strength.
And correspondingly, the ridge has been underestimated.
The further south this goes, the greater the threat
to 1) The Caribbean Islands/Bahamas and 2) SE Florida

oh brother...... Is there EVER a depression or storm that you don't
predict to be a major hurricane?

yeah, like Erin and others that are very close to land...the month is September, La nina is in play, and TD8 has thousands of miles of 85 degree water to trek over.

[hial2]

Lets also take a look at the wind shear tendency. Notice the big TUTT low over the north central Caribbean -- doesn't matter because TD 8 is not likely to go there.

There is that swath of high shear between TD8 and the area north of the Greater Antilles --
that is exactly where/why the NHC thinks this will be downgraded to a depression.

BUT -

after that between Puerto Rico to Florida and the SE Coast wind shear continues to lighten...so conditions could improve it looks like

Look at where the highest shear is shown...exactly where Debbie was shredded..

[fox13weather]

Why aren't the boards all renamed "My reasons why TD (insert number here) will become a CAT 5 and pound the US"?