Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[Frank P]

How you guys can determine whether it's going WNW or NNW by the windbarbs defies my understanding of multi-vortex systems. I'm going with short-range NWS NWFL radar and this is what I see:

One possible swirl rotating SW off of Destin; another one almost due south of DeFuniak Springs rotating kinda NW toward the coast with some banding (almost looks like minichannels) and an overall heading of the system somewhere between NW and WNW on satellite.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Who knows?

Steve

I been looking at the vis sat loops, not any wind barbs... and its really hard to say exactly where it is going because I think there are multiple centers in this system at both the low and mid levels causing hate and discontent amongst the storm2k posters... hehe... when I have trouble finding a clear center I just view the overall cloud patterns...

the NHC said it would eventually take a more WNW course over the next 24 hours... I'd like to see about 60 mph winds on my house to see how it performs... I just got to be careful what I wish for..

[Stormcenter]

How you guys can determine whether it's going WNW or NNW by the windbarbs defies my understanding of multi-vortex systems. I'm going with short-range NWS NWFL radar and this is what I see:

One possible swirl rotating SW off of Destin; another one almost due south of DeFuniak Springs rotating kinda NW toward the coast with some banding (almost looks like minichannels) and an overall heading of the system somewhere between NW and WNW on satellite.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Who knows?

Steve

This storm has been confusing from the get go and still is. I have no idea
where it's moving but to me one center is moving inland right now. That
may or may not be the dominate center. I don't know.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Steve]

>>the NHC said it would eventually take a more WNW course over the next 24 hours... I'd like to see about 60 mph winds on my house to see how it performs... I just got to be careful what I wish for..

Word out of some of the navy guys in and around Stennis was that they were looking for a Waveland/BSL hit (of course that's where they are but..........) Anyway, yeah, visible usually offers some help, but without a well defined low level center, you can just watch the progression of the system. Speaking of visible, the "rolling ball" portion of the circulation would appear to be headed toward Mobile County if you drew a straight line. There is a tightening up swirl headed for the FL coast, but the main spin looks to be headed toward SW Alabama. I wonder if that miniswirl (the one everyone is saying is about to be the landfalling center), is going to rotate back out in the future and whether or not its transient or will be the real center of the circulation. I got it pegged as the strongest one right now, but it doesn't appear to be the axis of rotation for the entirety of TD10. That center is currently at 29.91, 86.38W per 19UTC Goes (coordinate) shot.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

System center looks more like 29.83, 87.19.

19:15 Goes visible (click on the spot to zoom for coordinates at the bottom of your screen for anyone who doesn't know)

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

JMO

Steve

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[wxman57]

TD10 appears to be heading NNW at this time:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I'm measuring a 2-hr movement to 297 degrees at 6.5 kts 3hr movement 297 deg. at a bit over 7 kts.

[Category 5]

Call me crazy but...

If this doesn't make the forecasted turn within the next 1-2 hours then this things life span will be less then 12 hours.

[wxman57]

Call me crazy but...

If this doesn't make the forecasted turn within the next 1-2 hours then this things life span will be less then 12 hours.

Actually, moving 297 deg it would reach the coast in 6 hours. It's only 44nm to the coast.

At 20:05Z, center near 29.9N / 86.2W

[Category 5]

Call me crazy but...

If this doesn't make the forecasted turn within the next 1-2 hours then this things life span will be less then 12 hours.

Actually, moving 297 deg it would reach the coast in 6 hours. It's only 44nm to the coast.

woops.

Thanks for correcting me.

[Steve]

Just for kicks, it looks like the wave axis which used to be Ingrid is running some juice into both TD #10 and the SW Caribbean. You can see it on WV if you speed up the frames set to loop of 30:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

You can also see high pressure pushing in from the east hitting a brick wall which is outflow from TD #10 and a trough split (or is that a high pressure split???) into the SW Gulf with high pressure pushing down on TD #10 from the north. Perhaps this is why many of the models had progged a bend down the road (more likely to be inland, but should run up around 32 or 33N (for anyone who may be looking for wishcaster clues, I'm at 29.44 ).

Steve

[RL3AO]

Call me crazy but...

If this doesn't make the forecasted turn within the next 1-2 hours then this things life span will be less then 12 hours.

Good. The less time over the GOM the better.

[Category 5]

Call me crazy but...

If this doesn't make the forecasted turn within the next 1-2 hours then this things life span will be less then 12 hours.

Good. The less time over the GOM the better.

And if it stays the course it will head into drought striken areas.

just wishful thinking.

I'm VERY intrested to see the 5pm advisory.

[Brent]

Alright, I'm saying landfall in the Panhandle by Midnight and we need to start looking elsewhere for Jerry.

[Category 5]

I actually think it could be upgraded at 5.

but really, I can't remember a Tropical system jumping to the edge of the cone this quickly.

[JonathanBelles]

I cannot see this missing Florida with Walton or Okaloosa county a good bet, possibly just east of Eglin AFB within a few hours.

[Category 5]

good ole reliable quikscat.

[Stormcenter]

These movement posts are funny. It kind of tells
you what we are dealing with here. If you follow
the entire system on the visible sat. loop it "looks" to me have a more "westerly"
motion to it but hey that's just me.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Category 5]

These movement posts are funny. It kind of tells
you what we are dealing with here. If you follow
the entire system on the visible sat. loop it "looks" to me have a more "westerly"
motion to it but hey that's just me.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Looks like NW to me.

[Sabanic]

I agree. It's very tricky. Almost looks like a center south of Ft Walton/Pens headed due NW to Mobile Bay. Weird!!

[Category 5]

[HURAKAN]

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