Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[destruction92]

What are the current probobilities of a direct impact on South Florida?

Well, since there are no tropical storm watches (which should have been posted 36 hours in advance) and since there is a "Stalled" out front over Florida that has upper level winds "behind" blowing up to 30 knots Northeasterly, some think that is enough reason to say Florida is in the clear. Hmmmm?

Anyways, I guess I'll buy some champaigne for Wxman57 and myself...he seems to think Florida is in the clear from Noel's nasty weather. And the NHC cone has kept moving ever so slightly east http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/gr ... p_3W.shtml .

Why is the NHC so reluctant in issuing tropical storm watches for the Southeastern coast of Florida? Is this bad for South Florida's economy or something? Will this cause European tourists who have booked their trips months in advance to cancel because of a wimpy "tropical storm" watch.

I know that if this was a system in the gulf, the NHC would not even hesitate to put watches and warnings just about everywhere (even places that are forecasted to stay further from the tropical system of concern than Noel is forecasted to stay from Florida).

[destruction92]

Wxman57, that cold front you depicted over Florida is too far south and should be blue and red striped (since this is a stalled out front). That graphic is deceiving....I don't know where you got it from.

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/UA/Mexico.gif

Front was sketched in by hand. Didn't take the time to indicate it was moving less than 6 mph (stationary). The map you posted has the front in the wrong position - too far north. It's clearly south of Tampa but the leading edge is not a sharp boundary. Doesn't matter where the front is, though, it's the mid and upper winds along and ahead of the front that steer storms, not the front.

So the Ocean Prediction Center's Surface Analysis map is wrong? Oh really. What proof/evidence do you have that this "front" of yours is south of Tampa. A link from a trusted site like NOAA would be helpful....When you mentioned that you photoshopped your graphic I became very suspect of the accuracy of it all.

I think you should have taken the time to indicate the front was stationary since Stationary FRONTS MOVE SLOWER....AND, you indicated what the upper level winds were like BEHIND the front (20-30 knots Northeasterly)...So, what about the upper level winds along and in advance of this STATIONARY front???? You said those were important to focus on, yet you never mentioned them recently...instead, you mentioned the winds behind the front.

Please don't leave out any information when making an "informed" forecast.


Anyways, with your tone not changing a bit, even yesterday around 5PM when models were shifting west, you still believe Florida is in the ALL CLEAR from Noel's damaging weather? If so, I would appreciate that you say it and not just do everything else just short of saying it.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Noel has surprised me by going into Cuba. Wow this
stuff can pull surprises.

But I agree 100% with Wxman57's forecast: This is why:

So the LLC might dissipate overland but the MLC may take
over like wxman57 said- since weak tropical systems tend to
have center relocations also like wxman57 said. The convection
is over the MLC so it might take over IMO as well.

Thank you wxman57 for sharing your analysis on that it
cleared up my confusion about which "center" would do what

[Blown Away]

BAMS 20.8N 80.7W 19.6N 80.4W 18.5N 82.9W 16.7N 87.2W

Looks like one sneaks bye the trough.

[wxman57]

One other tip - don't focus on the center. Focus your attention on the large area of convection to the northeast. THAT'S Noel. I can't see an LLC over Cuba on visible imagery. Almost 100% sure it'll reform over water to the ENE near the convection.

[hiflyer]

wxman57 just want to say thanks for your explanations and all the time you take to do graphics to help us here....greatly appreciated....thanks very much

[destruction92]

Noel has surprised me by going into Cuba. Wow this
stuff can pull surprises.

So the LLC might dissipate overland but the MLC may take
over like wxman57 said- since weak tropical systems tend to
have center relocations also like wxman57 said.

Thank you wxman57 for sharing your analysis on that it
cleared up my confusion about which "center" would do what

The NHC admits that Noel has been moving west at 10 knots....and does not anticipate a Northwest movement until this evening. Hmmmm. If that's true, then their forecast track, which depicts Noel moving Northwest NOW will have to adjusted to depict Noel moving more westerly.

[img]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/023525.shtml?3day?large#contents[/img]

[Blown Away]

One other tip - don't focus on the center. Focus your attention on the large area of convection to the northeast. THAT'S Noel. I can't see an LLC over Cuba on visible imagery. Almost 100% sure it'll reform over water to the ENE near the convection.

If the LLC reforms ENE that would make it a done deal missing SFL, right?

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[caneman]

Looks like we may be seeing the end of the road for NOel. You can clearly se the Western edge flattened out on Water Vapor. Looks like the Wester motion should stop soon. Of course it could de-couple and if the LLC remains intact just keep trucking towards the Caribb.

[boca]

Even if South Florida is possibly in the clear. Noel is still moving west and a tropical storm watch should be issued at 11am. The watch can always be discontinued.At least people will prepare better even if it turns the last second.Rather safe than sorry.

[alienstorm]

Noel continues to slide toward the WSW and in all likelihood will emerge off the south coast of Cuba. The NAM has been advertising this for a few runs, and it takes it all the way to near 83 degrees. However, this storm has had a history of relocating so it wouldn't surprise me if it redevelops off the NE coast of Cuba.

Cuban Radar is showing a weakening trend and it does continue over land in all likelihood it will dissapate.

[NcentralFlaguy]

I think the reasoning is that there are already high wind advisories in place due to the onshore flow caused by the tight pressure gradiant..so therefore the public has already been made aware of the high winds, and regardless of the track the winds wont be much more than would be w/o the presence of Noel. also its forecast to slow down pretty substantially..so that buys some time also..with that being said im sure some type of storm watch will be eventually issued.

[HURAKAN]

WV:

[TampaFl]

Map courtesy Boat USA:

[xironman]

In the high res satellite it almost looks like there is low level spin close to the south coast of Cuba http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-76&zoom=1&type=Animation&info=vis

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Wow! Look at the size of noel on the sat image posted above!!
That system is huge! That convection must be over 400 miles
North to South of Area!!!

[destruction92]

Map courtesy Boat USA:

If this keeps up Noel will miss the "shortwave" trough which is moving much slower than Noel.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

That would be interesting to watch...what if the LLC gets into the
caribbean it is almost headed there while the MLC goes
north of cuba?

[NcentralFlaguy]

The one certainty is Haiti/Dr is just slammed with heavy rain. it just continues to pour over that island. ridiculous amounts of rain.