Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[tgenius]

If it dies and no rain for South FL, that would be fine by me as it would just about ruin Halloween!

[MiamiensisWx]

It looks like Georgia and the Carolinas can't buy any needed rainfall...

[Thunder44]

according to Derek there is a new center just north of Cuba

There are no surface obs that I can find that supports a new center forming there yet.

[cpdaman]

look how much beach is left in jupiter (and high tide isn't till 12:30)

http://evsjupiter.netfirms.com/dig001.jpg slide pic to left

tomorrow afternoon should be a bit of coastal flooding will be taking a drive up the coast to see if any property's are getting too close for comfort

[Bgator]

Does anyone have obs from Andros Isl.? Why didnt the NHC mention a new LLC possibly forming?

[HenkL]

I see, thanks. So we'll have to wait.

[DESTRUCTION5]

look how much beach is left in jupiter (and high tide isn't till 12:30)

http://evsjupiter.netfirms.com/dig001.jpg slide pic to left

tomorrow afternoon should be a bit of coastal flooding will be taking a drive up the coast to see if any property's are getting too close for comfort

WOW that is impressivly bad news right there..another 3 days of this prob too..

[NcentralFlaguy]

according to Derek there is a new center just north of Cuba

There are no surface obs that I can find that supports a new center forming there yet.

I agree there are no indications that a new center is forming only some mid level turning..(that actually appeared a little stronger 2 hours ago).
the vis sat confirms that the existing llc is still holding together and about to emerge into the carib. still west of the nhc track ,furthermore the ridge to the north still looks pretty strong in fact , the stationary front over N Florida seems to be regressing and weakening at the moment..although I do see the makings of a trough in the Gulf of mexico, SE Florida will sure be cutting it close in my opinion, especially if Noel does not slow..which it is showing no signs of doing.

[Vortex]

a new center is NOT forming....In fact Hi-Res vis indicates the circulation is actually tightening and heading W..*Could* be over the NW carribean waters this evening

[tgenius]

Vortex you think Miami is going to get rained on tomorrow or do you think we will end up just dry and windy from the High?

[HURAKAN]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

If you do a loop, you will see that the center is over Camagüey, Cuba, and moving west.

[cpdaman]

i would wonder if even a new center forms NE under MLC and convection if would not go wnw-w into cuba again- something about those cuban cigars i tell ya

[Bgator]

The weird thing that it doesnt seem to be weakening any more than it has already, is that because most of the convection is off coast, getting pulled in..And look at cuban radar it looks to be about leaving the Cuban coast into the NW carribbean, and i cant see a new llc on radar.

[Vortex]

12Z GFS now moves it briefly into the NW carribean

[Vortex]

It should emerge into the NW carribean during the next 4-5 hours...

[yzerfan]

Palm Beach also isn't an official Breakpoint. An official NHC watch/warning would have specified Jupiter Inlet or Boca Raton to Craig Key, and probably thrown in a like about Lake O as they tend to do.

[Vortex]

The end result will still likely be a track over the NW bahamas after tracking into the NW carribean then N and NE. Noel will track closer to the SE FL coast. Possibly within 30-50 miles..Also, may see a period of squally weather combined with the gradient will likely have gusts to TS force late tonight and wednesday..

[Bgator]

If it doesnt get torn apart...Its struggling to get started again...it wants to but cant!

[NcentralFlaguy]

still looks to be sliding just south of west.. still

[Nimbus]

It should emerge into the NW carribean during the next 4-5 hours...

That low level swirl near -78W doesn't look like it will be the dominant center.
The system could split but strong convection north of Cuba near -76w 22n still looks like it will push WNW.