CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[HollynLA]

Man if the models keep it landfalling in Louisiana when it first turns into a cane, the media will have a mass freak out.

Too late. It got quite a bit of coverage today, they interrupted with "Breaking News" when it was first upgraded this morning.

Well I have to tell you that there was very little mentioned about it on the NOLA weather news.

[LCfromFL]

My church has a mission trip planned for Haiti this weekend and part of next week (thru Thursday). The group going is from the 'college and careers' class (a bunch of 20-somethings) and they plan to work in an orphanage near Port Au Prince. My best friend's husband and oldest daughter are going. The group is leaving in the early morning hours of Saturday (I think they have to be checked in at the airport at 5 a.m.). I don't suppose there will be warnings issued by then (for Haiti)?

[Weatherfreak14]

My local NWS site says it best for me! "A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY OR MAY NOT BE IN THE PICTURE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK."

WIMPY!!! Dallas NWS forecaster is a little braver...

AS FOR TROPICAL STORM DEAN...
ABOUT THE ONLY THING THE LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE UPON IS THAT DEAN
WILL MOVE WEST TOWARD CUBA BY MID NEXT WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE A MAJOR PROBLEM DECIDING WHEN TO TURN DEAN NORTHWARD. THIS
FORECASTERS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR AN EAST COAST PATH BUT HIGHER FOR
A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TRAJECTORY...CONSIDERING HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

Im still not sure about Dean in the gulf, i still think that this may be an east coaster if Dean rapdily intensifys which is very possible.

[Wx_Warrior]

I'll send you a care package if you are right FREAK....I've got one down for Sean from NOLA...he said the same thing...

[whereverwx]

Now it is looking much better.

[Scorpion]

Wow its looking great now. Getting a nice tight core.

[Weatherfreak14]

I'll send you a care package if you are right FREAK....I've got one down for Sean from NOLA...he said the same thing...

Thanx. and i hope this comes no where near me.

[TheShrimper]

Don't think they'll be going to Haiti

[Blown Away]

Steve Lyons just said Dean is looking real good with a tight center and and a symetric circulation and expects Dean to strengthen soon. I don't know what it is, but I like Alexandra Steele.

[SaveNola]

My church has a mission trip planned for Haiti this weekend and part of next week (thru Thursday). The group going is from the 'college and careers' class (a bunch of 20-somethings) and they plan to work in an orphanage near Port Au Prince. My best friend's husband and oldest daughter are going. The group is leaving in the early morning hours of Saturday (I think they have to be checked in at the airport at 5 a.m.). I don't suppose there will be warnings issued by then (for Haiti)?

This trip may be cancelled.

[Aquawind]

My church has a mission trip planned for Haiti this weekend and part of next week (thru Thursday). The group going is from the 'college and careers' class (a bunch of 20-somethings) and they plan to work in an orphanage near Port Au Prince. My best friend's husband and oldest daughter are going. The group is leaving in the early morning hours of Saturday (I think they have to be checked in at the airport at 5 a.m.). I don't suppose there will be warnings issued by then (for Haiti)?

Hard to say warnings..watches would be possible. Certainly could be in the cone and by then the forecasters should have a better handle on the path with recon data and all.

[jaxfladude]

:uarrow: Excuse me folks but this may turn into a very serious situation for the people that live in the Caribbean islands.It is not something to have fun with.

I at least know THAT I am praying for the least ammount of bad stuff as possible as it relates to "Dean" or any other storm in the past, present or in the future....

[Valkhorn]

I really don't see this thing turning more to the WNW even if it does rapidly intensify. Many RI storms did not turn WNW or poleward when they did so like Isabel, Ivan, Katrina, Rita, or Wilma.

Plus I really don't see this having as favorable conditions as those did when they bombed out. Remember, storms like Wilma had just about the most perfect conditions you could possibly think of over the warmest waters you could find. I don't think we have that here.

Not saying a monster isn't possible, just I dont think it's likely at this point.

[Scorpion]

My church has a mission trip planned for Haiti this weekend and part of next week (thru Thursday). The group going is from the 'college and careers' class (a bunch of 20-somethings) and they plan to work in an orphanage near Port Au Prince. My best friend's husband and oldest daughter are going. The group is leaving in the early morning hours of Saturday (I think they have to be checked in at the airport at 5 a.m.). I don't suppose there will be warnings issued by then (for Haiti)?

Well, I suppose you guys can assist in cleaning up after the destruction

[Praxus]

Speaking of the central gulf, this is kind of interesting -

"The truth is, New Orleans, if hit, will flood. How badly depends on the hurricane. In his book The Storm (Viking; 320 pages), out this week, Louisiana State University researcher Ivor van Heerden argues that Katrina wasn't the mythical Big One, a frightening conclusion for a city entering a new hurricane season.

The storm made landfall east of New Orleans as a fast-moving Category 3, he notes, but the winds that lashed the city—weakened by wetlands and miles of subdivisions—registered only as a Category 1. Van Heerden, deputy director of the LSU Hurricane Center in Baton Rouge, warns that a slow-moving Category 3 hurricane passing west of the city would flood levee to levee—including the historic French Quarter, which was spared last time—even without the embankments breaking.

Another man-made disaster, like the levee breaches after Katrina, could turn New Orleans into a "Cajun Atlantis," Van Heerden fears, crippling the coastal economy along with it. "The uneasiness is not just in New Orleans. It's right across the southern part of the state," he says.

On a tour of the city's earthen and floodwall defenses last week, Van Heerden said levee problems could endanger areas that were not flooded after Katrina, including the west bank of the Mississippi and the western suburbs of New Orleans, most notably near the airport, an area crucial to every evacuation plan."

ttp://www.time.com/time/magazine/articl ... 78,00.html

[TheShrimper]

Local Fox affiliate here in SW Fl. is already at it. Headline story...Interview with Charlie Crist ect. Tomorrow AM, they'll be at Home Depot no doubt. What a crock.

[Weatherfreak14]

I really don't see this thing turning more to the WNW even if it does rapidly intensify. Many RI storms did not turn WNW or poleward when they did so like Isabel, Ivan, Katrina, Rita, or Wilma.

Plus I really don't see this having as favorable conditions as those did when they bombed out. Remember, storms like Wilma had just about the most perfect conditions you could possibly think of over the warmest waters you could find. I don't think we have that here.

Not saying a monster isn't possible, just I dont think it's likely at this point.

Im not saying a rapis intenifcation like katrinia or wilmia maybe a rapid intenfictaion to a CAT 1 and yes it will matter on the track of this storm greatly.

[BUD]

My local NWS site says it best for me! "A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY OR MAY NOT BE IN THE PICTURE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK."

WIMPY!!! Dallas NWS forecaster is a little braver...

AS FOR TROPICAL STORM DEAN...
ABOUT THE ONLY THING THE LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE UPON IS THAT DEAN
WILL MOVE WEST TOWARD CUBA BY MID NEXT WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE A MAJOR PROBLEM DECIDING WHEN TO TURN DEAN NORTHWARD. THIS
FORECASTERS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR AN EAST COAST PATH BUT HIGHER FOR
A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TRAJECTORY...CONSIDERING HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

Im still not sure about Dean in the gulf, i still think that this may be an east coaster if Dean rapdily intensifys which is very possible.[/quo

The matter of this is everyone will be feeling it if this thing go into the Gulf and thats at the gas pump!!!!!!

[TheShrimper]

I understand poleward as a northerly deviation from an established east to west trek. I realize the Bud has devoured many of my brain cells, but I think Rita, Ivan, Wilma, Katrina all ended up on a track that had some "north" associated with it. Wilma, went NW, N, then NE. Gilbert comes to mind as one thats path didn't deviate much. It basically ran it's w-wnw to wnw the whole Caribbean.

[punkyg]

Right now i'm so dissapointed in Dean's convection.
i thought there would have been more oh how i was so wrong
well at least we still have the rest of the night to see what happens.