Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[punkyg]

Of course the T numbers are going up now all we need is the NHC to upgrade this baby. i say it'll get upgraded tonight.

[Cookiely]

This one is darn right scary on visible. Pray its a fish.

[Sanibel]

Serious large cyclone developing. Still only at 35W. Slight WNW component could be developing. See you in two days on this.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

440
WHXX01 KWBC 241905
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1905 UTC MON SEP 24 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962007) 20070924 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070924 1800 070925 0600 070925 1800 070926 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.3N 34.5W 10.2N 37.1W 11.2N 39.9W 12.2N 42.8W
BAMD 9.3N 34.5W 9.9N 36.6W 10.4N 38.8W 11.0N 41.0W
BAMM 9.3N 34.5W 10.1N 36.9W 10.8N 39.4W 11.4N 41.9W
LBAR 9.3N 34.5W 10.1N 37.2W 10.9N 40.4W 11.5N 43.4W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 40KTS 50KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 40KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070926 1800 070927 1800 070928 1800 070929 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.4N 46.0W 16.2N 51.8W 18.3N 55.8W 19.6N 57.8W
BAMD 11.9N 43.3W 14.8N 47.5W 18.4N 50.8W 21.9N 53.3W
BAMM 12.3N 44.5W 14.9N 49.2W 17.7N 52.5W 20.1N 54.6W
LBAR 12.2N 46.4W 14.9N 51.0W 18.8N 53.4W 22.0N 54.7W
SHIP 60KTS 74KTS 84KTS 88KTS
DSHP 60KTS 74KTS 84KTS 88KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.3N LONCUR = 34.5W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 8.7N LONM12 = 31.4W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 7.1N LONM24 = 29.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Derek,what you make of the ramp up of SHIP?

[HURAKAN]

Jeff Masters 301 PM EDT:

Atlantic disturbance 96L midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles nearing tropical depression strength
A tropical wave (96L) near 9N 33W, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, is moving west-northwest at 10-15 mph. This wave has gotten much more organized this afternoon, as seen in the latest satellite loops. The circulation associated with the wave is unusually large. The storm has been slow to organize, since it is so large and so far south. At the storm's current latitude--9 degrees north of the Equator--it cannot leverage the earth's spin very much to help spin up the huge circulation it has. However, the storm will probably be a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Low-level spiral bands have already formed, as seen in recent microwave satellite images (Figure 2). This morning's 7:29 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a better defined circular wind pattern with top winds of 25-30 mph. The wave is under about 10 knots of wind shear. The shear forecast has changed significantly since yesterday, and high levels of wind shear exceeding 20 knots are now expected to impact 96L beginning Tuesday, rising to 30 knots on Thursday. This is the type of wind shear Tropical Storm Ingrid encountered earlier this month, and the shear eventually destroyed the storm. None of the computer models forecast that 96L will become a hurricane. The storm is expected to gradually work its way north as it crosses the Atlantic, and appears likely to pass north of the Lesser Antilles Islands next week. The last few runs of the GFS model show 96L eventually recurving out to sea next week.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200709

[Derek Ortt]

its latitude is not hindering development at all. If it wa such a hinderance, why would systems regularly form south of 5 in the WPAC?

This has not formed because it has not had concentrated convection near the center. This is starting to occur; thus, we should see this as a named storm tomorrow

[Derek Ortt]

model NCEP has a realistic shear pattern

Model NCEP at 12Z had 23KT of shear over this in 6 hours. A truly laughable forecast

[Derek Ortt]

the NOGAPS was from 0Z, not 12Z

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[Derek Ortt]

that's Jerry (now it was corrected)

[punkyg]

I love how it looks on here like a big blob so CUTE!

[punkyg]

LATEST:

Whats up HURAKAN you posted a pic of 96L in jerry's thread a few minutes
ago now you posted jerry in here are you sleepy or something?

[Thunder44]

18z models still initialize this system as a "Disturbance". No upgrade is likely at 5pm.

[CrazyC83]

About the shear comment, Ingrid had a lot more than 30 knots of shear for a while in the midst of the TUTT (wasn't it up to like 50-60 knots at its peak?). There isn't much shear at all near 10°N so if it moves WNW, that shouldn't be a factor. It is about 20 knots at its current latitude though and increasing.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[HURAKAN]

Whats up HURAKAN you posted a pic of 96L in jerry's thread a few minutes
ago now you posted jerry in here are you sleepy or something?

Just got confused with the pictures' numbers, that's all.

[Weatherfreak000]

I disagree with your assessment Derek, 96L is most certainly a Tropical Depression. The Gulf system is as well, of course.

The Gulf system appears to be waiting on Recon (As all weak, sheared systems in the GOM do) it's not really a bad thing, if the thing is gonna become a Tropical Storm what's another 12 hours anyway.

96L has a wide, completely round and perfect structure, evidence of threshold TD Winds and a broad but existing Circulation. Clearly it's the afternoon of the un-named TD's.


Also Derek, I wanna ask why is it that the shear forecasts have changed, and do you honestly think given 96L's starting Latitude it's going to still bypass the Caribbean? No doubt due to it's sheer size, it'll give many Islanders rain regardless.

[punkyg]

Whats up HURAKAN you posted a pic of 96L in jerry's thread a few minutes
ago now you posted jerry in here are you sleepy or something?

Just got confused with the pictures' numbers, that's all.

OH ok i was just making sure you were not falling asleep at the computer.

[emeraldislencguy]

this is looking much better in organization--it covers a large area too--could be a nasty storm but the wind sheer may hold it down.

[HURAKAN]

GETTING DARK: