CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[duris]

If this forecast bears out,all I have to sy is,I guess NOLA qill get their first post Katrina test on preparedness

Yeah, that doesn't give me a warm and fuzzy. Our mayor evacuated about a year and a half ago anyway. We're keeping an eye out and may get some plywood ready since we need it anyway, but considering the 300 mile or so jump in the models 3 days before Katrina, model watching 10 days out doesn't do much other than make me nauseous. Too bad whoever used to talk about meeting at Sav-A-Center for Abita beer (Steve maybe?) isn't around.

[Scorpion]

Right now i'm so dissapointed in Dean's convection.
i thought there would have been more oh how i was so wrong
well at least we still have the rest of the night to see what happens.

What are you looking at? Deep convection has formed over the center.

[LCfromFL]

My church has a mission trip planned for Haiti this weekend and part of next week (thru Thursday). The group going is from the 'college and careers' class (a bunch of 20-somethings) and they plan to work in an orphanage near Port Au Prince. My best friend's husband and oldest daughter are going. The group is leaving in the early morning hours of Saturday (I think they have to be checked in at the airport at 5 a.m.). I don't suppose there will be warnings issued by then (for Haiti)?

Well, I suppose you guys can assist in cleaning up after the destruction

I'm not going - my friend's husband and oldest daughter are...and several of my oldest daughter's friends are going (she's not going - she got a summer job to pay for a Colorado ski trip she is planning for this winter).

I'll let you guys know (as Dean moves closer to the islands) if their trip gets cancelled or not. Right now they're in a 'wait and see' mode - as is everyone else in the Caribbean, GOM, FL and the eastern seaboard.

[LSU2001]

The matter of this is everyone will be feeling it if this thing go into the Gulf and thats at the gas pump!!!!!![/quote]
That is a fact!!! anything strong in the gulf and gas will skyrocket. I was offshore last week and there are still a lot of damaged rigs out there, any chance of more damage and the futures will explode.
JMHO,
Tim

[PTrackerLA]

It sure is looking MUCH better. It appears as though the coldest cloudtops are rotating around the convective core that has developed. I'd expect to see this strengthen overnight for sure.

[Blown Away]

I understand poleward as a northerly deviation from an established east to west trek. I realize the Bud has devoured many of my brain cells, but I think Rita, Ivan, Wilma, Katrina all ended up on a track that had some "north" associated with it. Wilma, went NW, N, then NE. Gilbert comes to mind as one thats path didn't deviate much. It basically ran it's w-wnw to wnw the whole Caribbean.

Wilma - Late season, can't compare.
Rita & Katrina - Home brewed E of Florida, can't compare.
Ivan - I think it was at a lower latitude when it came through the islands, Dean could take a similar track, but if it ends up near PR or Hispanola, IMO it will affect SFL or go East.

[BensonTCwatcher]

You know a lot folks had this locked in for the western GOM earlier today. I am sticking to the possibility of a near S FL CONUS pass or stike, or even a near miss and recurve before the EC. The GFS depiction of the trough ridge setup looks like a few years back in the 90's vs what we have been used to seeing since 2004. Keep in mind that we have a tropical systm in the GOM which may have more of an effect if it joins the longwave trough. Still a where/when the ridge sets up.

[Flakeys]

I picked up one of these over the weekend. Great add for your hurricane supplieshttp://www.mywatersafe.com/

[jaxfladude]

Awaiting the 11pm edt NHC Advisory.......

[Blown Away]

The matter of this is everyone will be feeling it if this thing go into the Gulf and thats at the gas pump!!!!!!

That is a fact!!! anything strong in the gulf and gas will skyrocket. I was offshore last week and there are still a lot of damaged rigs out there, any chance of more damage and the futures will explode.
JMHO,
Tim[/quote]
I hear you, and my home owner's went from $600. in 2003, to $3200 in 2004, and back down to $1200. in 2007, I just saved myself $2000. I can't handle a huge insurance bill anymore.

[Sanibel]

Intensity:

Dry air in ridge on northern half. Mediocre SST's

Entering slow upgrade in SST's over next 10 degrees longitude.

[Javlin]

I really don't see this thing turning more to the WNW even if it does rapidly intensify. Many RI storms did not turn WNW or poleward when they did so like Isabel, Ivan, Katrina, Rita, or Wilma.

Plus I really don't see this having as favorable conditions as those did when they bombed out. Remember, storms like Wilma had just about the most perfect conditions you could possibly think of over the warmest waters you could find. I don't think we have that here.

Not saying a monster isn't possible, just I dont think it's likely at this point.

Im not saying a rapis intenifcation like katrinia or wilmia maybe a rapid intenfictaion to a CAT 1 and yes it will matter on the track of this storm greatly.

I am not totally sold on that at the moment that if it intensifies a poleward drift,I give it a a 60/40 it doesn't,everything out in front of Dean has been going due W all day and still is along with Dean ATM.Dean as we speak has good structure and is intensifing but yet it continues W.Now will Dean turn N some,probably,but it will not happen dramatically and as it's main component of direction.

[CW0262]

May take some more time there is much drier air ahead of it which may slow things down a bit.

[jaxfladude]

I understand poleward as a northerly deviation from an established east to west trek. I realize the Bud has devoured many of my brain cells, but I think Rita, Ivan, Wilma, Katrina all ended up on a track that had some "north" associated with it. Wilma, went NW, N, then NE. Gilbert comes to mind as one thats path didn't deviate much. It basically ran it's w-wnw to wnw the whole Caribbean.

Wilma - Late season, can't compare.
Rita & Katrina - Home brewed E of Florida, can't compare.
Ivan - I think it was at a lower latitude when it came through the islands, Dean could take a similar track, but if it ends up near PR or Hispaniola, IMO it will affect SFL or go East.

If I counted right this is the 100th reply congrats Blown_away....now back all seriousness...

[canegrl04]

Dean may stay a strong TS for a couple of days

[Thunder44]

Sorry, wrong thread for TD 5.

[Blown Away]

I understand poleward as a northerly deviation from an established east to west trek. I realize the Bud has devoured many of my brain cells, but I think Rita, Ivan, Wilma, Katrina all ended up on a track that had some "north" associated with it. Wilma, went NW, N, then NE. Gilbert comes to mind as one thats path didn't deviate much. It basically ran it's w-wnw to wnw the whole Caribbean.

Wilma - Late season, can't compare.
Rita & Katrina - Home brewed E of Florida, can't compare.
Ivan - I think it was at a lower latitude when it came through the islands, Dean could take a similar track, but if it ends up near PR or Hispaniola, IMO it will affect SFL or go East.

If I counted right this is the 100th reply congrats Blown_away....now back all seriousness...

Huh, Jaxfldude...

[jaxfladude]

WE are now in the very early stages of the peak of the hurricane season... TS DEAN and now TD#5 in the GOM......

[knotimpaired]

Excuse me but I do not think that has anything to do with TS Dean.

Maybe a different thread should be provided for this system?

I was under the impression this was a TS Dean thread.

[Steve]

NHC is coming around to what I was saying yesterday morning. Looking at the latest blowup of convection with the knob/nodule off to the west, I'd guess that's about where the center is.

Steve