CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[jaxfladude]

Blown_away said:

If I counted right this is the 100th reply congrats Blown_away....now back all seriousness..

Huh, Jaxfldude...
1000 my bad this longer than 25 pages thing got to me....

[meteorologyman]

I think United States is being put under pressure now.

TD5 is going to flood parts of Texas since they have already seen over a foot of rain in couple weeks time.
There is tropical storm dean which could be a hurricane or even a major that could be threatening the U.S a week l8r. Is the U.S ready, are insurance company ready, is the government ready. time will tell.

and I think I should also mention a huge storm emrging off of Africa that may bear watching

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
0300 UTC WED AUG 15 2007

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 42.3W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 42.3W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 41.5W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 12.2N 44.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 12.4N 48.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 12.8N 51.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.4N 55.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.5N 61.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 16.0N 66.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 17.5N 71.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 42.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 14 2007

..DEAN A LITTLE STRONGER

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1295
MILES...2085 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...12.0 N...42.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.


FORECASTER BROWN

[Blown Away]

11pm: 12N / 42.3W
5pm: 11.6N / 41.0W

Gaining latitude, still moving West.

[CronkPSU]

[tgenius]

Its interesting, on IR, Dean looks tiny, yet the windspeed has increased to 50 with gusts 60-65!

[drezee]

Dean is making the fist...I coined the phrase many years ago...

This is an explosion of convection that wraps around the center and forms an eye in 12-24 hours or less. This indicates rapid intensification! Dean will be a hurricane very soon.

[windstorm99]

[Scorpion]

I would say thats a little premature for now

EDIT..

Hmm... some black convection on the IR

[windstorm99]

[jaxfladude]

Its interesting, on IR, Dean looks tiny, yet the windspeed has increased to 50 with gusts 60-65!

Compact intense hurricane ala Andrew in overall windfield size comparisons only....

[tgenius]

I would say thats a little premature for now

EDIT..

Hmm... some black convection on the IR

Black is coldest isn't it? got an IR image you saw it in Scorpion?

[SouthFLTropics]

It appears that the "guests" staying down at Gitmo might have a nasty start to next week!

[CrazyC83]

I'm thinking this might be a Category 4 by the time it reaches the islands...

[Scorpion]

New GFDL and HWRF runs will be interesting to see

[CronkPSU]

Dean is making the fist...I coined the phrase many years ago...

This is an explosion of convection that wraps around the center and forms an eye in 12-24 hours or less. This indicates rapid intensification! Dean will be a hurricane very soon.

i was looking at the latest sat pics and thinking the same thing

[Evil Jeremy]

at this rate, watches should start coming out this time tommarow, right?

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007

AFTER THE CONVECTION WANED THIS AFTERNOON...A NEW BURST HAS
REDEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DESPITE THE
SOMEWHAT RAGGED SATELLITE APPEARANCE AROUND 2100 UTC...A QUIKSCAT
PASS AT THAT TIME DETECTED A RATHER WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH
BELIEVABLE 45-50 KT WINDS. WITH A NOD TO THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT A POSSIBLY
CONSERVATIVE 45 KT. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE QUIKSCAT DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/16...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED AS DEAN IS
EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
GENERALLY AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO BUT WITH SOMEWHAT VARYING FORWARD
SPEEDS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS FASTER THAN THE NOGAPS
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WHICH CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE INITIALIZING THE
FORWARD MOTION OF DEAN. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE
CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...HWRF AND GFS MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT
IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THESE MODELS AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

IT APPEARS THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING DEAN IS
BEGINNING TO DECREASE. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING AND THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE BRINGS DEAN TO A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HOURS...AND NEAR THE
MAJOR HURRICANE THRESHOLD BY DAY 5.

THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0300Z 12.0N 42.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 15/1200Z 12.2N 44.8W 50 KT
24HR VT 16/0000Z 12.4N 48.2W 55 KT
36HR VT 16/1200Z 12.8N 51.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 17/0000Z 13.4N 55.2W 70 KT
72HR VT 18/0000Z 14.5N 61.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 19/0000Z 16.0N 66.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 20/0000Z 17.5N 71.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[DESTRUCTION5]

30 min to the GFS PARTY