CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[windstorm99]

AFTER THE CONVECTION WANED THIS AFTERNOON...A NEW BURST HAS
REDEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DESPITE THE
SOMEWHAT RAGGED SATELLITE APPEARANCE AROUND 2100 UTC...A QUIKSCAT
PASS AT THAT TIME DETECTED A RATHER WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH
BELIEVABLE 45-50 KT WINDS. WITH A NOD TO THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT A POSSIBLY
CONSERVATIVE 45 KT. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE QUIKSCAT DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES

[jaxfladude]

It appears that the "guests" staying down at Gitmo might have a nasty start to next week!

and that would be bad for our "guests"??
I got it...prayers for all those down there ie our troops

[CrazyC83]

I'd personally have gone with 50 kt here.

[drezee]

TROPICAL STORM DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
0300 UTC WED AUG 15 2007

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 12.8N 51.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.4N 55.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

It can be surmised that the NHC is forecasting Dean to attain hurricane status at 16/1800z or 39 hours from now. Given that the fist is forming, I would give less than 24 hours as stated above. Maybe even by 1500z tomorrow! 0300z at the latest...
g

[chadtm80]

[CrazyC83]

at this rate, watches should start coming out this time tommarow, right?

Yep, probably Hurricane Watches for the central Lesser Antilles, surrounded by Tropical Storm Watches to the north and south. Of course Dean could wobble some...

[caneseddy]

Those can't be right???

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rb.html

Atlantic funktop loop. Gives a nice overview of both storms. Dean's forecast points work, nothing for TD5 yet.

[knotimpaired]

Chad,

How reliable is HWRF?

K

[Scorpion]

That graphic has 2 day old models...

[HollynLA]

Isn't that GFS model depicted in that map going way further north than the actual GFS?

[Weatherfreak14]

Chad,

How reliable is HWRF?

K

HWRF is a new model as of this year i think, its supposed to be the new GFDL like model right?

[JonathanBelles]

If this can be moved in to its own thread, please do it.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Advisory 081407

Today Tropical Storm Dean Formed and is developing. Invest 91L became Tropical Depression 5. TD5 is developing faster than Dean.



Central Atlantic...Tropical Storm Dean. Dean has Strengthened to 50 mph and will continue to strengthen into a hurricane by mid day Thursday. Landfall is first expected near Martinique and then Dean is forecast to move nw towards the Greater Antilles. From there it looks like it will cross Cuba and enter the GOM likely towards the northern Gulf on days 7-8-9. Convection is flaring as it is now moving away from Diurnal Minimum. It should regain shape in the overnight hours as right now it is recovering from egg shape syndrome that it has been enduring the past few hours. Shear may increase in the long term, but water temperatures are also increasing. Those in the islands should be preparing now! Those in the states should keep this storm in their minds and preparations.

Tropical Depression 5 will be included here tomorrow but is in OT at viewtopic.php?p=1594975#p1594975

Chances for Tropical Depression Development in next 3 days other than current storms: 0%
Chances for Tropical Storm Development in the Next 3 days: 95%
Possibility of hurricane development in the next 3 days:50%
US threat of Tropical development in next 24 hours: 80%

Amateur Forecaster Jonathan-Fact789

[Evil Jeremy]

The HWRF is an experminental replacement to the GFDL, introduced this year.

[fci]

Only a slightly different track than David in 1979.
A bit east of that track but very similar in a track towards Hispanola coming through the Islands at about 15.0 and then making the turn WNW.

David made a sharp turn to the NW and then WNW before heading towards SFL.

Unfortunately, David hit Hispanola as 4/5 and caused horrific devastion and loss of life.

None of us want to see Dean follow his footsteps but as this point they look very similar.

[meteorologyman]

This is getting a little intense, two storm both intensifying at the same time whew I cant keep up with all these posts back and forth I go

anyway this is not a forecast from any NHC nor any meteorological data this my OPINIONI THINK, Dean may be intensifying a little faster then expected, winds are now at 50mph and the storm has slowed down from 25 -20mph to now 18mph. Everyone also notice that the convection is also getting better eventhough there is dry air. this storm is also only forecast to slow down even more which unfortunately may give time for storm to strengthen more before making landfall in dominican Republic which could also mean when storm passes the island it will be stronger then orginally forecasted

what imean by that is that it was originally meant to hit island at Cat2 so it would probaly exit as Cat1 or T.S but now it could be Cat3 or Cat4 which means it could exit as Cat2 or Cat3.

[windstorm99]

Any thoughts on the center being relocated a tad futher north?

[Agua]

Isn't that GFS model depicted in that map going way further north than the actual GFS?

Yes. latest GFS and HWRF bring it just south of Haiti. Whoever put that graphic together must have been working on it for a couple of days and didn't bother to update it.

[caneseddy]

what imean by that is that it was originally meant to hit island at Cat2 so it would probaly exit as Cat1 or T.S but now it could be Cat3 or Cat4 which means it could exit as Cat2 or Cat3.

That's not necessarily the case; David made landfall as a Cat 5 and made it to the other side as a TS and barely a Cat 1 when it brushed the SE Florida coast, so thats not a very good comparison

[Weatherfreak14]

Any thoughts on the center being relocated a tad futher north?

well if it keeps doing that i think the track may be bumped a little to the right a bit, but if thisd is going through a intensifcation stage it has to hold a main center but will prolly to continue to wobble more north and west. or south and west.