CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[punkyg]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_1.html

Well this is the latest image on Dean so what do yall think?

[Blown Away]

Ok, SFL is going to be in the 5 day cone by tomorrow evening. If Dean sneaks N of Hispanola I will be very nervous in SFL. I think for PR and Hispanola the only thing is hope for a weaker Dean, IMO. I think Dean is about to explode.

[Scorpion]

Dean is looking great right now

[knotimpaired]

I would appreciate this thread to stay open for those of us that live in the islands. This can be used for Prof. Mets that may be able to advise us and also for any of those that may have concerns and/or needs any of us may be able to help you with.

Please, no speculation beyond 20 or US landfall.

You have many threads going for that.

[fci]

Yes, I concur.
If Dean traverses Hispanola it will take a lot out of the storm
given the mountains of the Island.

David was torn apart on its trip through and Jeanne almost disintegrated after hitting it from the East.

[Blown Away]

As excited as we were to see Dean, the reality sets in now because any hurricane hitting Hispanola results in a significant loss of life. I have a bad feeling now...

[Javlin]

Any thoughts on the center being relocated a tad futher north?

Horse Hockey,maybe they are right but you use DV,VIS or the Short wave and impose the Lat/Lon and tell me what you honestly think.I am thinking maybe 11.8N but who am I?well we will find out in the morning with the VIS.

[DESTRUCTION5]

better re look at your Lat/Lon..LOL

[knotimpaired]

I did , lol

[Wthrman13]

Dean is now running as storm_3 on the hwrf model. It has also shifted Dean's track south but still bombs Dean over the eastern Caribbean:

Holy boundary condition problems Batman! I'm referring to the vertical stripe of spurious precipitation on the left edge of the domain. Such problems could be caused by improper forcing from the outer domain, so that the model solution on the inner domain does not match at the boundary with the outer domain. It could also be from waves reflecting off the artificial model boundary. On the other hand, it only seems to show up in the precip field on those graphics, so it could just be a display issue, and not an actual model issue. At any rate, I would think the folks running the model would be aware of it (at least I hope).

[Brent]

WOW!

[CrazyC83]

As excited as we were to see Dean, the reality sets in now because any hurricane hitting Hispanola results in a significant loss of life. I have a bad feeling now...

It could be a trip to the retirement home for Dean...

[CrazyC83]

I wouldn't be surprised to see a special advisory of Hurricane Dean after seeing that QuikSCAT...

[Normandy]

Man Dean is a masssssive system....that is one of the more impressive QSCATs ive seen

[Blown Away]

As excited as we were to see Dean, the reality sets in now because any hurricane hitting Hispanola results in a significant loss of life. I have a bad feeling now...

It could be a trip to the retirement home for Dean...

I was thinking the same thing. IMO, of all the Caribbean islands, Hispanola is the worst spot for a storm to go.

[fci]

As excited as we were to see Dean, the reality sets in now because any hurricane hitting Hispanola results in a significant loss of life. I have a bad feeling now...

It could be a trip to the retirement home for Dean...

Very high price to pay to send him to a retirement home though

[tgenius]

Man Dean is a masssssive system....that is one of the more impressive QSCATs ive seen

It's interesting because on IR it doesn't look nearly as impressive; but that QSCAT looks pretty impressive.

[CrazyC83]

As excited as we were to see Dean, the reality sets in now because any hurricane hitting Hispanola results in a significant loss of life. I have a bad feeling now...

It could be a trip to the retirement home for Dean...

Very high price to pay to send him to a retirement home though

Yeah, unfortunately He'd be the first since Wilma to see that dubious destination...

[windstorm99]

Dean does seem to be moving ever so slightly north of due west...Thoughts?

[btangy]

Holy boundary condition problems Batman! I'm referring to the vertical stripe of spurious precipitation on the left edge of the domain. Such problems could be caused by improper forcing from the outer domain, so that the model solution on the inner domain does not match at the boundary with the outer domain. It could also be from waves reflecting off the artificial model boundary. On the other hand, it only seems to show up in the precip field on those graphics, so it could just be a display issue, and not an actual model issue. At any rate, I would think the folks running the model would be aware of it (at least I hope).

Yea, when I first saw this, I was quite concerned too, but I think it's a display issue. If you had precip like that for real along the fine mesh, probably would have serious problems with the model. I would think that any major BC issues with the nested grid were solved in the development phase of the model.