Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

Remember everyone. NO RECON over land. Because of some bearded sucker named Castro. Why doesn't he just die. The MLC looks more dominate then the LLC that supposedly is inland. Is it possible that the MLC at around 22n becomes the LLC?

Please no politics here as its not allowed.

[Canelaw99]

The 12 HWRF is awful close though...I wish these things would make up their minds - miss S FL or hit S FL...geez...this in between stuff is annoying LOL

[NcentralFlaguy]

It is certainly turning to the NW to NNW at this time behaving nicely now. On track with the NHC....Finally!

[gatorcane]

The center is just a bit SW of the NHC forecast points heading W to WNW...may make it off the coast in about 3-4 hours should it move more west....

then strengthening is likely given that the center is in tact.

Maybe we should start discussing the possibility of it moving more west and missing this short-wave.....because so far Noel has moved alot more west than the NHC thought.

[Blown Away]

It is certainly turning to the NW to NNW at this time behaving nicely now. On track with the NHC....Finally!

I see just N of due W at the most.

[alienstorm]

JB states in his column that it will still be over land until noon tomorrow, but that the structure is getting better and that once it comes out it could intensify given the slower forward speed.

We all have different opinions on JR, but he is right more often than not and he has been right on this year with developing storms (i.e Humberto).

It is apparent that NHC is having issued forecasting this as well.

[eastcoastFL]

does anyone think it will reach hurricane strength?

[gatorcane]

It is certainly turning to the NW to NNW at this time behaving nicely now. On track with the NHC....Finally!

I see just N of due W at the most.

absolutely no NW or N movement...still heading W to WNW....

I agree with Wxman though...I am seeing hints of the turn...

[Bgator]

I see WNW, to NW, maybe around 295. Defenitely not NNW though.

[alienstorm]

Outer bands not in the Florida Straits

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/radamx.html

[Evil Jeremy]

The moisture is rapidly spreading to Florida!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[ronjon]

Looking over the 12Z UKMET, it moves the center of Noel from about 79.5W on the north-central Cuban coast at 2 am on Thursday to a position along the NW tip of Andros Island - but it takes 24 hours! That is a very slow crawl over some extremely warm waters. If that verifies, the SE FL coast will get lashed for 24-36 hrs.

[Bgator]

You do see some rain coming in from the overall circulation of Noel. Cuban radar is horrible.Im happy we can see at least something on ours.

[Canelaw99]

At the rate it's moving west, the NHC is almost going to have no choice but to issue watches/warnings for southern FL. I know things can change, but I just don't see how it's going to go north, as they're certain it will, and miss FL as far west as it seems it's getting. Of course, I'm no pro, so don't go by my opinions

*S2K disclaimer here *

[gatorcane]

How has this thing made it so far west?? The NHC just a day ago had it about 100 miles north of where it is.

Just shows that we still can't accurately predict where these things are going to go....

[Evil Jeremy]

This season has been breaking all of the rules, and Noel is no exception.

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS



The 12z NOGAPS has more of the same.

[gatorcane]

and remember folks shouldn't SE Florida be going through this in like Aug-September?

It's nearly November!!! A system approaching like this from the East is very rare....

wow is all I have to say.

[Evil Jeremy]

Latest NOGAPS is again showing a close call for Florida!

[Air Force Met]

Hey guys...let me chime in here with a couple of observations. I would have posted sooner but I have been deployed dealing with California wildfires.

I can tell by reading the posts that the "concern" by some here for where this is going is really a desire to get this thing close to you (let's not kid anyone) This isn't going to be a bad storm by any stretch of the imagination unless you a foolish enough to go into the surf and get caught in a rip current. Given your lack of rain...and the fact it won't be bad...I'd be wanting it too.

Here's the "good" news. You are going to "get" it...at least wind wise...and it really doesn't matter where the center goes...so all this focus on it's gonna turn...it's not gonna turn...it's here...it's there...is really just fun discussion but in the long run the results are really the same. Why? The pressure gradient is what is going to cause most of the wind on the west side of this thing, not convective bands. As wxman said...there will be a wall there...a wall of shear in the upper levels at least....and a wall of dry (drier) air. That will limit convection on the west side.

So I am sorry you won't get that much rain...but for those who want the TS force winds (you know who you are... )...you should get it on the coast due to the high to the north and the low with Noel...regardless of where it goes. Matter of fact...if you want a good strong wind...you actually should be rooting for it to move away from you a little (where ever you are)...because by the time I think the center gets to FL or off the coast...I think the center will be a little broad.

That is all...continue with the previous bickering on where it really is and where it is going.