Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[NcentralFlaguy]

It is certainly turning to the NW to NNW at this time behaving nicely now. On track with the NHC....Finally!

I see just N of due W at the most.

lol...yeah your right ,I have simply been looking at this thing to long, every time I look at it I see something different...whatever direction I tell myself its moving ,I will look at it ...and I can see it moving that direction....I am gonna take a break .

[artist]

and remember folks shouldn't SE Florida be going through this in like Aug-September?

It's nearly November!!! A system approaching like this from the East is very rare....

wow is all I have to say.

actually the month of Oct. is when I watch the most myself.

[gatorcane]

Hey guys...let me chime in here with a couple of observations. I would have posted sooner but I have been deployed dealing with California wildfires.

I can tell by reading the posts that the "concern" by some here for where this is going is really a desire to get this thing close to you (let's not kid anyone) This isn't going to be a bad storm by any stretch of the imagination unless you a foolish enough to go into the surf and get caught in a rip current. Given your lack of rain...and the fact it won't be bad...I'd be wanting it too.

Here's the "good" news. You are going to "get" it...at least wind wise...and it really doesn't matter where the center goes...so all this focus on it's gonna turn...it's not gonna turn...it's here...it's there...is really just fun discussion but in the long run the results are really the same. Why? The pressure gradient is what is going to cause most of the wind on the west side of this thing, not convective bands. As wxman said...there will be a wall there...a wall of shear in the upper levels at least....and a wall of dry (drier) air. That will limit convection on the west side.

So I am sorry you won't get that much rain...but for those who want the TS force winds (you know who you are... )...you should get it on the coast due to the high to the north and the low with Noel...regardless of where it goes. Matter of fact...if you want a good strong wind...you actually should be rooting for it to move away from you a little (where ever you are)...because by the time I think the center gets to FL or off the coast...I think the center will be a little broad.

That is all...continue with the previous bickering on where it really is and where it is going.

Air Force Met...points taken... but note

-extremely warm waters in the FL straits and some models want to slow this thing down on its turn to the north
-it keeps getting farther west than the NHC is forecasting
-outer bands are not that far away from hitting SE Florida....so rain is definitely possible.

[Recurve]

The track doesn't seem that unusual. Northwest motion then recurvature is typical for October/November, though this did start rather farther east, if that's what you mean.

I'm watching from afar today, which is very strange. This might get pretty close to home but I'm 1,500 miles away in Illinois where the weather is delightful for the end of Oct.

[cpdaman]

dew points across the SE florida region are

ft laud 69
miami 69
fort pierce 70
melbourne 72
naples 69


so the dry air is not moving down the coast toward s florida

JOE B and WXMAN among others see the LLC becoming better organized over cuba to my confusion

how is it possible for a LLC to get better organized over a rugged land mass like cuba

and will this likely hold together for another 16 hours or so over land?

[HURRICANELONNY]

That's funny. And true. But if the center relocates farther north. Then we could be dealing with a Hurricane. From the looks of the visible Sat. loops. The MLC is becoming the more dominate. Not that is happening. But it sure looks like it. On the loops.

[eastcoastFL]

thanks airforce met. thats basically what i wanted to hear! all right bring on the wind!

[alienstorm]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
240 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

.DISCUSSION...ALL FORECASTING TOTALLY DEPENDS ON THE FUTURE OF
T.S. NOEL. UPPER RIDGE REMAINING QUITE STRONG ACROSS CENT FL WITH CURRENT
OFFICIAL FCST KEEPING NOEL OVER CUBA THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS
AND THEN CURVES IT TO THE NORTH AS UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE SE U.S. THIS KEEPS NOEL OFF THE SE FL CST INTO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GFS/NAM RUNS SHIFT NOEL TO THE
WEST AND TAKE IT S OF CUBA BEFORE TURNING IT TO THE NORTH WITH THE
GFS MUCH FASTER AGAIN KEEPING IT OFF THE SE FL CST. AT ANY RATE,
IT WILL CONTINUE QUITE WINDY WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUING BETWEEN NOEL AND THE SFC HIGH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND THUS WIND ADVISORY WILL BE UP FOR ALL OF SE FL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. QUICK PASSING SHRA WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH RAINFALL TOTALS NOT A FLOODING CONCERN WITH THE RAPID
MOVEMENT. CONSIDERING ALL OF THIS, THE MAV GUIDANCE SEEMS MUCH
MORE REALISTIC IN ITS POPS WITH THE MET WAY OVERDONE. THE FIRST
OUTER BANDS ACTUALLY SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE/RADAR PASSING JUST
NORTH OF ANDROS. THE MAV ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
TEMP GUIDANCE AS WELL. AS UPPER TROUGH PICKS UP NOEL, IT WILL
RAPIDLY MOVE TO THE NE AND LATEST GFS RUN DRAGS A COLD FRONT
BEHIND NOEL ON FRIDAY AND THE MEX GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS DEW POINTS
FINALLY LOWERING INTO THE MID 60S. A TASTE OF AUTUMN MAYBE
FINALLY? STAY TUNED.


&&

.AVIATION...STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE

[NcentralFlaguy]

thats interesting

[fci]

AFM:
Thanks for bringing your brand of "sanity" to the thread.
You're the Pro and I'm pretty proud to say that I was about to post about the same thing as you when I read your post (you know you think out a post to respond to someone and when you look back up the thread has gone another page or two!).

So here are my thoughts (I AM NOT MAKING A FORECAST HERE so I don't think a disclaimer is needed)

- It really doesn't matter where this goes at this point as we won't get much rain
- The winds will gust up into the 40's causing a lot of beach erosion and a toppled lawn chair or two.
- This looks more and more like Ernesto for us. As my daughter calls it "a leaf blower"
- This MAY NOT even make it out of Cuba as a TS or barely one (like Ernesto)
- There will NOT be any Hurricane Watches or Warnings for South Florida for this storm

What am I basing this on?
Years of following storms.

I am usually right about these things.
Sometimes I am not.

Out.............

[wxman57]

Another preliminary NHC track hidden in the model data? Note that it's a tad east of the last track. Looks good to me.

[Evil Jeremy]

East? If anything, it should be a little bit more west! Mabey this was created before the latest model runs were ran.

[cycloneye]

To any pro met.A question that has not being asked as all the focus is South Florida.Those who live in Bermuda have to worrie about NOEL or not?

[Air Force Met]

-extremely warm waters in the FL straits and some models want to slow this thing down on its turn to the north
-it keeps getting farther west than the NHC is forecasting
-outer bands are not that far away from hitting SE Florida....so rain is definitely possible.

Note...

You may get some rain...and that is good...

Warm waters? Who cares...you got 65-70 degree dew points over FL and eventually that will get wrapped into the LLC...so regardless of your H2O temps...that will cap development and you will have a right sided system.

You will have 25-30 kts of sw winds over south Fl by the time Noel gets there. Shear city. Its not enough to kill it...but throw in some 65-70 dew points and it is enough to take a storm on a downward cycle. So...the hurricane gleam you are putting in your eye? You can take it out. Storms don't have a mind of their own...they surprise us...but only because WE don't understand the atmosphere enough. In this particular case...I understand sub 75 degree dew points and 30 kts of sw winds. If those conditions are not present...different story...but I have seen NOTHING that would change that or forecasts a conflict with those conditions. The further WEST it goes...the more hostile the conditions are.

[wxman57]

Just what I've been saying for days, AFM. Glad you agree. A little cooler over here?

Hey guys...let me chime in here with a couple of observations. I would have posted sooner but I have been deployed dealing with California wildfires.

I can tell by reading the posts that the "concern" by some here for where this is going is really a desire to get this thing close to you (let's not kid anyone) This isn't going to be a bad storm by any stretch of the imagination unless you a foolish enough to go into the surf and get caught in a rip current. Given your lack of rain...and the fact it won't be bad...I'd be wanting it too.

Here's the "good" news. You are going to "get" it...at least wind wise...and it really doesn't matter where the center goes...so all this focus on it's gonna turn...it's not gonna turn...it's here...it's there...is really just fun discussion but in the long run the results are really the same. Why? The pressure gradient is what is going to cause most of the wind on the west side of this thing, not convective bands. As wxman said...there will be a wall there...a wall of shear in the upper levels at least....and a wall of dry (drier) air. That will limit convection on the west side.

So I am sorry you won't get that much rain...but for those who want the TS force winds (you know who you are... )...you should get it on the coast due to the high to the north and the low with Noel...regardless of where it goes. Matter of fact...if you want a good strong wind...you actually should be rooting for it to move away from you a little (where ever you are)...because by the time I think the center gets to FL or off the coast...I think the center will be a little broad.

That is all...continue with the previous bickering on where it really is and where it is going.

[Canelaw99]

Interestingly enough, they have cancelled the high wind watch since they're not expecting sustained winds to be above 40mph here. Now, the theory last night (I heard from our local mets) was the NHC didn't issue any TS watches for S FL since the high wind watch was already in place. Now that it isn't, will that change the thinking for watches?

"URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
258 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

FLZ068-072-074-168-172>174-310300-
/O.CON.KMFL.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-071031T2200Z/
METRO PALM BEACH-METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST PALM BEACH...COCONUT CREEK...
FORT LAUDERDALE...HOLLYWOOD...PEMBROKE PINES...MIAMI...JUPITER...
PALM BEACH...BOCA RATON...POMPANO BEACH...FORT LAUDERDALE BEACH...
HOLLYWOOD BEACH...AVENTURA...MIAMI BEACH...CORAL GABLES...
CUTLER BAY...HOMESTEAD...FLORIDA CITY...EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK
258 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS OPEN WATER
THURSDAY. DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE FORECAST TRACK MAINTAINS TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WELL OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...THE
COMBINATION OF NOEL WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES WILL RESULT IN STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL RESULT IN
WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH POSSIBLE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE STORM BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE AREA. SINCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER ARE NO
LONGER EXPECTED...THE HIGH WIND WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA HAS BEEN CANCELED AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS NOW BEEN PUT INTO
EFFECT INSTEAD FOR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM TODAY THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE
DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE
EXTRA CAUTION AND SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS AROUND THE HOME OUTDOORS."

[Air Force Met]

[quote="wxman57"]Just what I've been saying for days, AFM. Glad you agree. A little cooler over here?


I'm just glad global warming has let up enough to allow the fire fighters time to put out the fires...and allow us to have a fall.

/sarcasm



PS-I can't access Storm 2K when I deploy...the comm nazis bar chat rooms...

[Air Force Met]

AFM:
Thanks for bringing your brand of "sanity" to the thread.
You're the Pro and I'm pretty proud to say that I was about to post about the same thing as you when I read your post (you know you think out a post to respond to someone and when you look back up the thread has gone another page or two!).

So here are my thoughts (I AM NOT MAKING A FORECAST HERE so I don't think a disclaimer is needed)

- It really doesn't matter where this goes at this point as we won't get much rain
- The winds will gust up into the 40's causing a lot of beach erosion and a toppled lawn chair or two.
- This looks more and more like Ernesto for us. As my daughter calls it "a leaf blower"
- This MAY NOT even make it out of Cuba as a TS or barely one (like Ernesto)
- There will NOT be any Hurricane Watches or Warnings for South Florida for this storm

What am I basing this on?
Years of following storms.

I am usually right about these things.
Sometimes I am not.

Out.............

Sounds good. I was going to mention the beach erosion but forgot...thanks for adding it. The point people are forgetting here (the ones who want it to go west) is that the further west it goes...the worse the conditions for development get. With the gradient setup the way it is...it really doesn't matter...the winds are the same...hence the reason the NHC hasn't even put up a watch for SOFLO. The wind problems are already covered by the existing warnings.

[Vortex]

Another preliminary NHC track hidden in the model data? Note that it's a tad east of the last track. Looks good to me.

Looks good to me....

[cycloneye]