CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[DESTRUCTION5]

24 HR GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

I see a mch stronger system by this time tommorow.. 1008?

[Steve]

>>It will be VERY INTERESTING to see how TD5/Erin affects the trough supposed to affect the Southeast this weekend. Erin might get picked up by it and cause further erosion to the Atlantic Ridge causing Dean to turn earlier.

If it heads +/- across the Rio Grande Valley into New Mexico as forecasted, it's not even part of that game. I also can't believe you brought back out that cut and paste of the cold front again. I already said that the relative position of Dean to the descending Trough (and particularly the timing) was what would matter. Because if the trough is earlier or later, it's not coming to Maryland in any way, shape or form.

Steve

[cycloneye]

GFS initiated lower in intensity as tonight is at 50 mph and 1000 mbs.

[Steve]

Also, here's the High Resolution Water Vapor Loop to keep handy for later this week for a better look at the upper patterns:

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/east/anim ... astwv.html

Most of the flow in Canada is zonal. A trough split looks to be in place in the Western Atlantic which currently shows up similar to a TUTT (which admittedly, it probably is).

Steve

[KFDM Meteorologist]

36 GFS Surface

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

[Scorpion]

I would say 55 kts is reasonable for 5 AM, perhaps stronger

[KFDM Meteorologist]

36 500

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036l.gif

[Bgator]

Does anyone have a site link that has an animated GFS?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

48 HR

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

[KFDM Meteorologist]

48 hr 500

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048l.gif

[windstorm99]

Does anyone have a site link that has an animated GFS?

Here you go.

[TheRingo]

wow it really builds in that ridge westward.

[x-y-no]

Does anyone have a site link that has an animated GFS?

For the 0z run:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... ib/gfs/00/

[Bgator]

thank you!

[Javlin]

Also, here's the High Resolution Water Vapor Loop to keep handy for later this week for a better look at the upper patterns:

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/east/anim ... astwv.html

Most of the flow in Canada is zonal. A trough split looks to be in place in the Western Atlantic which currently shows up similar to a TUTT (which admittedly, it probably is).

Steve

Thks for the Sat in Favorites now and what was that about Dean and Maryland?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

60 HR

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

[KFDM Meteorologist]

60 Hr 500

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif

[DESTRUCTION5]

This run is a Joke..Still has dean as a 1008 storm at 60 hrs..

[cycloneye]

So far a very weaker run.

[Bgator]

Yeah the GFS isnt picking up that its intensifying. I think we will have to wait until the 06z or even 12z before they put the new data in and we can get a real good run out of it.