Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Blown Away]

Interesting that the Nogaps has Noel passing across 80W before the big curve. It keeps Noel over Cuba before shooting it NE, there won't be much left, IMO.

[Vortex]

well defined center....southerly flow from the carribean I'm sure is helping...

[Evil Jeremy]

Another preliminary NHC track hidden in the model data? Note that it's a tad east of the last track. Looks good to me.

Looks good to me....

I thought that they would actually shift it more to the left! After all, the latest NOGAPS, CMC, HWRF, probably the next EURO, and others are to left of the current cone and the 5PM preliminary.

[Bgator]

Should we expect some gusty winds in the bands about to come into florida?

[Vortex]

forward motion has slowed down...Turn appears to be underway the last hour.

[artist]

so if the wind watches are being cancelled and they were due to the pressure gradient what change is occurring they were not expecting since they were to remain in effect until late tomorrow? Will this change anything associated with Noel? What are they now seeing differently?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Previous page- recon over land and Castro. If you go to the NHC web page, and look around in the archives of HDOBS, you will find that the Hercules has flown inside Cuban airspace during Hurricane Charley.


I get the impression they just prefer not to fly low level invests over land. Not sure about topography of Eastern and Central Cuba, but I do get the impression that the peaks of the Cordillera in Hispaniola poke up above the 850 mb level, and controlled flight into terrain is a bad way to end the day.




BTW, this has been bad, obviously, for people who can't least handle this kind of thing in the Greater Antilles.


But this, along with the continental high, are pushing dry air through Florida into the Gulf, so the return flow ahead of the next two fronts into Texas will be barely modified dry air, which is good, as I have tickets to the Nascars race Friday evening and Saturday and Sunday.

[Evil Jeremy]

The turn has not begun yet.

[Canelaw99]

so if the wind watches are being cancelled and they were due to the pressure gradient what change is occurring they were not expecting since they were to remain in effect until late tomorrow? Will this change anything associated with Noel? What are they now seeing differently?

Those are exactly my questions that have yet to be answered.....I know they're still expecting some winds, obviously, since there's a wind advisory, but it's not the high winds they were expecting....

[Bgator]

I do agree it has started moving WNW-NW, but defenitely not its full turn, the NHC doesnt even expect that to happen for another 12 hours.

Also...
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=AMX&loop=yes
Rain is moving in!(Weird only 40% POP tonight.)

[cycloneye]

The turn has not begun yet.

Look at the radars at this page.The inland LLC is moving now NW albeit slowly.

[Canelaw99]

I do agree it has started moving WNW-NW, but defenitely not its full turn, the NHC doesnt even expect that to happen for another 12 hours.

Remember, though, the NHC didn't expect it to be where it is either.....this one has been surprising people.

[Frank2]

We were denied passage across the island during my one flight (Dennis, 1981), but, it was probably just as well, because we arrived at the Cuban coast just before sunset, and, a low-level invest at night across unknown terrain would not have been SOP, and risky, at best...

So, we turned westward, and, made one big loop around the west end of the island, to a point east of the Isle of Pines (now the Isle of Youth), and, finding that the center of Dennis was already over land, our pilots turned back and proceeded to the north coast. As it turned out, Dennis had already begun to cross the Florida Straits (it made landfall near Flamingo) by the time we arrived at that longitude, so, our long distance travels that night were of little value, though we finally did get to drop down and fly a racetrack low-level invest pattern, while over the open ocean of the Florida straits for the remainder of the early morning hours (we were to provide a 06Z Vortex Message), and, even did record one gust (in a thunderstorm) of 60 knots...

That was my 15 seconds (or 11 hours) of recon time...

So, no surprise that today's missions are dealing with similiar situations, though, in all fairness, the Cuban government's meteorological service is usually very cooperative in situations like this, and, often would issue special surface obs and balloon flights (for additional upper-air observations) during a system's passage over the island.

[Bgator]

Is it possible this is a depression at 5?

[CrazyC83]

Is it possible this is a depression at 5?

Yes it is possible, but this would be one really good-looking depression if such is the case. I would hold it as a TS.

[Frank2]

If the surface obs show a depression (and there are no ship obs that support a storm), I would think so, but, since it is forecast to strengthen a little after returning to sea, the NHC might keep Noel a Tropical Storm for a variety of reasons.

Perhaps they are making that decision at this hour...

[msbee]

12z UKMET



Another model with a close call for South Florida.

Barbara,the timeframe is between 48-72 hours.

and I am supposed to fly to Miami on Thursday afternoon... wonder if I will make it?

[HURAKAN]

Real close:

[artist]

so if the wind watches are being cancelled and they were due to the pressure gradient what change is occurring they were not expecting since they were to remain in effect until late tomorrow? Will this change anything associated with Noel? What are they now seeing differently?

Those are exactly my questions that have yet to be answered.....I know they're still expecting some winds, obviously, since there's a wind advisory, but it's not the high winds they were expecting....

I'm not worried about a big storm just as you probably aren't but here in Fl. you can lose power with the drop of a hat. We do on a daily basis without a storm!

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET



Another model with a close call for South Florida.

Barbara,the timeframe is between 48-72 hours.

and I am supposed to fly to Miami on Thursday afternoon... wonder if I will make it?

Unless NOEL makes a Halloween surprise and takes aim at South Florida,I dont think that the Miami airport will close.Have a pleasant and safe trip.