CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[tgenius]

This run is a Joke..Still has dean as a 1008 storm at 60 hrs..

might be 1008 or lower right now!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

72 Hr

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

[SkeetoBite]

At 72 hours (from 11pm advisory)

[DESTRUCTION5]

This run is a Joke..Still has dean as a 1008 storm at 60 hrs..

might be 1008 or lower right now!

4 sure!!

[Agua]

Yeah the GFS isnt picking up that its intensifying. I think we will have to wait until the 06z or even 12z before they put the new data in and we can get a real good run out of it.

You aren't going to get a "real good run out of it" until there's atmospheric sampling Gulfstream IV recon data added.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

72 500

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif

[Bgator]

Yeah the GFS isnt picking up that its intensifying. I think we will have to wait until the 06z or even 12z before they put the new data in and we can get a real good run out of it.

You aren't going to get a "real good run out of it" until there's atmospheric sampling Gulfstream IV recon data added.

That is true lol, but a better run than this one. lol.

[Steve]

>>Thks for the Sat in Favorites now and what was that about Dean and Maryland?

It was an argument vs. statecasting (in this case EAST COAST ZOMG!!!111!!) earlier in the day. My premise was that behind any front worth its salt is usually a dome of pretty stable upper high pressure spreading out south (and as in the case of the east coast front this past weekend, also southeast and southwest). This = Block or deflection and not typically a "weakness" except out front with the SW Flow in a situation where "fall like air" is behind it.

Steve

[Sanibel]

00z GFS low-tracking Dean into the Caribbean again.

[cycloneye]

You aren't going to get a "real good run out of it" until there's atmospheric sampling Gulfstream IV recon data added.

Bingo!!.

[canetracker]

66 hr surface
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_066l.gif
66 hour 500 mb level
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_066l.gif

72 hr surface
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_072l.gif
72 hour 500 mb level
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_072l.gif

[knotimpaired]

Thanks, it is nice to see someone who cares about our islands.

Kudos.

[SkeetoBite]

Thanks, it is nice to see someone who cares about our islands.

Kudos.

I dump a lot of cash in those islands nearly every year!

[canetracker]

78 hr surface
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_078l.gif
78 hour 500 mb level
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_078l.gif

84 hr surface
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_084l.gif
84 hour 500 mb level
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_084l.gif

90 hr surface
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_090l.gif
90 hour 500 mb level
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_090l.gif

[cycloneye]

Very good that you made this thread for all of us who live in the islands.The best thing for us to do now is to prepare for the worse and hoping for the best and this system somehow does not arrive here.

[Blown Away]

Ivan vs Dean track:
Currently: Dean at 12N/42.3W
Ivan was close to Dean's current spot at 9.5N/43.4W and did not reach 12N until 62.6W.
Dean is expected to be near 15.0N when he reaches 62.W. I don't know if this means anything.
I bet the outcome is much different, IMO.

[jhamps10]

00z GFS low-tracking Dean into the Caribbean again.

indeed it is, and this run appears to be taking it SOUTH of Hisponola.

[canetracker]

96 hr surface
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_096l.gif
96 hour 500 mb level
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_096l.gif

102 hr surface
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_102l.gif
102 hour 500 mb level
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_102l.gif

[DESTRUCTION5]

1000 at 102hrs..LOL...Be lucky if its 970 IMO

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Southern tracker maybe! High builds along Gulf Coast