CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[jhamps10]

1000 at 102hrs..LOL...Be lucky if its 970 IMO

if not a bit lower than that.

Also looks like GFS really slows it down between 84 and 102.

[weatherguru18]

Is it just me or does the IR sat. look rather impressive. Dean is spinning like a top now and personally I think we could have Hurricane Dean by 5 or 11pm tomorrow...easy.

[Blown Away]

As we get closer and closer to land those few degrees make a difference. If the GFS initialized at 11.6N instead of 12N it would make a difference. I guess @24 miles, not a big difference I guess.

[Scorpion]

A slow down could signal a change of direction

[StormWarning1]

1000 at 102hrs..LOL...Be lucky if its 970 IMO

The pressure of 1000 is only showing the radius of that isobar. It does not depict the lowest pressure. The isobar of the lowest pressure is to small to fit on the map anyway.

[canetracker]

108 hr surface
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_108l.gif
108 hour 500 mb level
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_108l.gif

114 hr surface
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_1114l.gif
114 hour 500 mb level
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_114l.gif

[Scorpion]

Dean is really impressing me tonight... nice red where the center is

[Blown Away]

Cycloneye, what's your take on Dean and PR?

[AtlanticWind]

Same path as 18z so far

[Scorpion]

If Dean stalls out around this area I could easily see the HWRF verifying here.... the TCHP is some of the highest in the basin around here

[Sanibel]

"stalls"??? I think you meant "bombs"...

[jhamps10]

looks like it crosses haiti at one of it's narrowest points on this GFS run, also could barily clip eastern cuba. Shouldn't be over for long though.

[Blown Away]

Say what you want, the GFS is taking Dean low through the Caribbean because it has Dean as a weak system.

[windstorm99]

Nogaps is way north...Just noticed.

[BUD]

Ivan vs Dean track:
Currently: Dean at 12N/42.3W
Ivan was close to Dean's current spot at 9.5N/43.4W and did not reach 12N until 62.6W.
Dean is expected to be near 15.0N when he reaches 62.W. I don't know if this means anything.
I bet the outcome is much different, IMO.

True, so was Hugo in 89

[Scorpion]

Good point Blown_away...

[windstorm99]

Good point Blown_away...

Yep...

[canetracker]

120 hr surface
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_120l.gif
120 hour 500 mb level
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_120l.gif

126 hr surface
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_126l.gif
126 hour 500 mb level
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_126l.gif

[jhamps10]

00z GFS has Dean Crossing Haiti at one of it's narrowest points, should not have very much land to cross there, So weaken it some yes, but I don't see a going from a cat 3 or 4 to a TD this time per this GFS run. also it could clip SE cuba too.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Good point Blown_away...

My point about this being a joke of a run..