CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Chris_in_Tampa]

It is a weak storm in the GFS with a low pressure of about 996mb 168 hours out. That being the low, not an isobar.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Throw this run in the trash!

[Scorpion]

It is a weak storm in the GFS with a low pressure of about 996mb 168 hours out. That being the low, not an isobar.

Thats why I can't see this verifying.. no way its that weak

[Jinkers]

SFL will likely be in the 5 day cone by Thursday morning. The local media is going to go crazy.

LOL, they've been hyping it up since yesturday.. They've led the 11PM news last nite and tonite with TS Dean and TD5.

[deltadog03]

Throw this run in the trash!

Thank you!

[Sanibel]

And Florida very well should be, since a deeper storm will trend right. Florida is right of this now consistent model track.

[Brent]

Worthless run. 1008 mb tomorrow? Already much stronger than that...

[windstorm99]

Throw this run in the trash!

[DESTRUCTION5]

Throw this run in the trash!

was trash since the 18th hr..

[crazycajuncane]

Next Tuesdays run will be much more interesting!

[PTPatrick]

For what its worth for the Floridians on over to NOLA...I see this only trending back east again. Mostly because of the strength issue. BUT, even if it does trend north in the short term and take a ride over the bigger islands, it should still get at least into the GULF...even if it is only by way of the keys and riding up the west coast.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Landfall Cameron LA

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228l.gif

[meteorologyman]

Saturday will be in interesting day for me, I am going to pensacola Fl Thurs., so I wont be on till Sat. which would be the day we would hav bettr undrstanding on where Dean is going

[canetracker]

180 hr surface
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_180l.gif
180 500 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_180l.gif


192 hr surface
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_192l.gif
192 500 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_192l.gif

[PTPatrick]

is it just me or is this slower...I was thinking landfall on the 12z was around next thursday...this is showing Friday

[crazycajuncane]

Landfall Cameron LA

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228l.gif

Thanks but no thanks.... I'll be in Lake Charles next Friday night. Going to the casino for the weekend. Dean has to go elsewhere... I got a birthday to celebrate!

[canetracker]

????

[MWatkins]

Just a note...remember the global grids aren't especially good at defining small scale pressure patterns associated with tropical cyclones. As such...they will not resolve the lowest pressure very well if at all. Hence the HWRF and GFDL models...

Instead of keying on the pressure, I would recommend looking at how the cyclone is represented in the 500MB layer. If it has a strong reflection there...the model likely is getting it into the proper steering environment...

MW

[jhamps10]

well I only see 1 good thing to this run, and that it will move north towards me in Illinois, and give us some big time drought relief, I hate that it will be at the expense of La getting hit by another hurricane.

[fci]

I do discount the EURO

I do not understand why many view it as the best model. It is great for medium range midlatitude weather, but the tropics are a different story

Perhaps because in 2006 the EURO was second to none at hours 72-120.
At 72 hours, ECMWF was < all other models' 72 hour error by at least 20%
At 96 hours, ECMWF was < all other models' 72 hour error
At 120 hours, ECMWF was < all other models' 120 hour error by at least 29%
At 120 hours, ECMWF was < all other model's 96 hour error expect the GFDL.

Guess that is why everyone thinks so highly of it.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/Verification_2006.pdf

Since I am a rather impatient person and REALLY tired; can you tell me where on the 57 page document there are comparitive statistics for accuracy between the various models?

Thanks!!

EDIT:
Found the statement on Page 16.
Thanks for providing the report!