Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[destruction92]

I wonder what they were saying about Andrew???
That must have woken up some people.

Anyways, never say never. However, from the info. I am getting from the pro-mets, it is not necessary to make preparations...unless you are paranoid.
I guess the only preparations needed will be to turn off the sprinklers and buy some movies from Blockbuster in case it gets rainy...even that is a stretch, since there is no rain forecasted to come to Florida from Noel. Maybe also buy some kites as it will be nice kit-flying weather.

['CaneFreak]

huge blowup of convection now but a bit ENE of the center...

I am wondering what will happen when the center gets back over water?

That would be due to orthographic lift from the mountains of eastern Cuba. They run east to west and the nature of the wind being southerly at this point is causing some orthographic lifting and causing this burst of convection.

[JonathanBelles]

Local Met just said the Gulf Stream is flying?

[RL3AO]

This is sad and funny, but Noel is the 4th strongest storm in terms of ACE this year for the Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

Local Met just said the Gulf Stream is flying?

Yes the gulfstream jet is up there.

...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THOSE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THE CENTER COULD BE A BIT SOUTH OF OUR ADVISORY POSITION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET TO 35 KT...BASED IN PART ON A
SURFACE WIND OBSERVATION OF 35 KT FROM A DROPSONDE...WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...LAUNCHED BY THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET
THAT HAS BEGUN ITS SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION.

['CaneFreak]

Also, this system heading far enough west to be a problem for FL goes against the laws of science. Tropical cyclones always follow the path of least resistance. There is more resistance the further west this goes due to less convergence, shear, etc. If this continues to the west over land, it will die over Cuban soil. If you look at convergence maps, the best convergence is EAST not WEST. The further west you go, the drier and more stable the air is. FL will have a rough time getting much needed moisture from this one.

[Air Force Met]

This is sad and funny, but Noel is the 4th strongest storm in terms of ACE this year for the Atlantic.

Everyone expects every year to be 2004 and 2005. Sometimes its just...average. For all of us who get worked to the bone when its not: Thank God.

[gatorcane]

Also, this system heading far enough west to be a problem for FL goes against the laws of science. Tropical cyclones always follow the path of least resistance. There is more resistance the further west this goes due to less convergence, shear, etc. If this continues to the west over land, it will die over Cuban soil. If you look at convergence maps, the best convergence is EAST not WEST. The further west you go, the drier and more stable the air is. FL will have a rough time getting much needed moisture from this one.

Feederbands are only about 75-100 miles East of the upper FL Keys..heading west...

[HURAKAN]

Loop

[gatorcane]

Here is the last visible shots. Center is still moving West and just about ready to emerge over water:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[gatorcane]

What do you all think of the possibility that the models have underestimated ridging this year? Seems like that even with Felix and Dean......

Looks like this situation is no different.

Perhaps the code needs to be tweaked. Did somebody change the code for these models this year? We didn't have this problem last year.

[HURAKAN]

John Toohey Morales, Telemundo 51 Chief Meteorologist in Miami, FL, says that he expects a much closer track of Noel to the peninsula because of the unexpected west movement and because the trough that should pick Noel up is still far from being an influence to Noel at the moment, and because of the strong ridge.

[jlauderdal]

John Toohey Morales, Telemundo 51 Chief Meteorologist in Miami, FL, says that he expects a much closer track of Noel to the peninsula because of the unexpected west movement and because the trough that should pick Noel up is still far from being an influence to Noel at the moment, and because of the strong ridge.

put that into spanish as he said it than i will believe you, lol

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Dropsonde info from NOAA jet comes in here:
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... ZNT13.KWBC
Only dropsonde messages, just like yesterday at this time.

[RL3AO]

I thought I would add this. In the next 12 hours, the NHC has Noel moving .6 N and .8 W, or at 323 degrees.

[HURAKAN]

John Toohey Morales, el Meteorólogo en Jefe de Telemundo 51 Miami, FL, dice que él espera que Noel tome una trayectoria más cerca a la península debido a su trayectoria inesperada hacia el oeste, también debido a que la vaguada que debe recoger a Noel todavía está lejos de ser una influencia a la tormenta, y debido a lo fuerte que es el anticiclón que mantiene a Noel moviéndose hacia el oeste.

[jlauderdal]

John Toohey Morales, el Meteorólogo en Jefe de Telemundo 51 Miami, FL, dice que él espera que Noel tome una trayectoria más cerca a la península debido a su trayectoria inesperada hacia el oeste, también debido a que la vaguada que debe recoger a Noel todavía está lejos de ser una influencia a la tormenta, y debido a lo fuerte que es el anticiclón que mantiene a Noel moviéndose hacia el oeste.

gracias senor. this will be of assistance to our spanish speaking audience

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[gatorcane]

Looking healthier....

it looks like some energy is trying to split off and head west and the rest is getting torn off to the NE....

weren't some of the models showing this possibility a couple of days ago?

[Bgator]

It looks still to be heading west...
You can defenitley tell there is shear though, with all the convection off to the NE.