Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[tgenius]

I got you guys beat! My wife and I were leaving Walgreens to head home, then BAM! the entire intersection of 117th and sunset in Kendall goes black. The stores, lights, traffic signals, everything.. it was kinda eerie... I guess we may end up with more rain from Noel then from Ernesto!

[Sanibel]

Windy here too.

Noel has hung up stationary over Cuba in a stall after hitting the front. It should now break N or even NE out of Cuba.

Note black IR while over land (usually sign of a strong storm).

[SouthFLTropics]

One thing is for sure...Noel has been a very persistent son of a gun. Thank goodness the conditions are not ideal and it isn't out over the open water. We could be dealing with a significant hurricane if that was the case. BTW, last visable loops make it appear that Noel has started heading straight North. If that is indeed the case then I would expect it to continue to pick up speed and get outta here pretty quick. Once the trough gets it he has a one way ticket to Nova Scotia and the tropical cyclone graveyard...

SFT

[Air Force Met]

That's because there will be so many years like them. Some years will even be worse than 2005. There will also be floods, droughts, fires and famine. Many will perish.

And there will be more years like 1997...and 2006...and blue skies...and years of near normal rainfall and near normal temps...

and daises growing in the fields next to the ponderosa pines...and lots of kids will be born...like my little Ava next January.

Bye Bye cuckoo.

[caneman]

18Z GFS close call as well

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[HURAKAN]

[tolakram]

I think Noel's going to Texas! Where's that Steve guy?

I'm kidding.

I expect it to go south of Cuba before turning north and then it will get shredded by the higher terrain. Why not?

[Brent]

That's because there will be so many years like them. Some years will even be worse than 2005. There will also be floods, droughts, fires and famine. Many will perish.

And there will be more years like 1997...and 2006...and blue skies...and years of near normal rainfall and near normal temps...

and daises growing in the fields next to the ponderosa pines...and lots of kids will be born...like my little Ava next January.

Bye Bye cuckoo.

[MusicCityMan]

LOL.. you seem confident on that don't ya lol..

[HURAKAN]

Video of the winds in South Florida:

[MusicCityMan]

storm is getting kinda close.. Kinda better start the turn soon.. otherwise South Fla may get the winds and the rain of this trick or treater..

[HURAKAN]

275
WTNT31 KNHC 302353
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

...NOEL DUMPING HEAVY RAINS OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...
HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST OR
ABOUT 25 MILES... 40 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND
ABOUT 275 MILES...440 KM...SOUTH OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

NOEL HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH...6
KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER CUBA OVERNIGHT...BUT EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF
CUBA ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA... ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...21.1 N...78.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE

[Air Force Met]

Video of the winds in South Florida:

Looks like the winds we get in Texas after a strong norther...

So...what's all the fuss about?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I believe hellplanet may be a troll.

I also think so.

Also Noel is pretty amazing, staying inland all this time. I think when it turns north, it might turn north right into the east coast of Florida. We will see.

[destruction92]

Noel looks to be re-emerging off the southern Cuban coast still moving west or west-northwesterly at a noticeable rate....no stall as of yet....maybe slowing down though. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

After looking at the shortwave IR loop, which seems to be better to use at night since visible satellite representation is poor quality in the absence of sunlight, Noel appears to still be moving west and its location appears to be at 21.3 N and 78.5 W...does anyone else see what I am seeing?

[MusicCityMan]

Still a W or NW motion.. It'll be interesting to see where he emerges off the coast.. and if they go ahead and issue TS advisories for South Fla tomorrow..

[Evil Jeremy]

oh, I see it. Florida is by no means out of the woods yet. Even if it just clips us, and don't start giving me some junk about dew points and dry air, we are going to be clobbered. Sure, the dry air will kill some of the rain on the storm's western side, but all of it? Very unlikely.

[MusicCityMan]

It'll be interesting to see how much rain south fla and central fla may get from this.. I wish it'd keep raining some.. I'm happy with all the rain we got..

[destruction92]

In the words of Vortex, "That ridge means business!".
Note that the shortwave trough is still over Nebraska, Kansas, and the Plains.
Two High Pressures around Virginia and another in Texas.
Could that High Pressure located over Texas be somewhat of a hindrance to how fast the lower half of the trough can clear Texas?

[hellplanet]

I think Knoll's probably going to stay pretty far east of Florida. The mets are usually right on these systems. When they keep saying it will turn it will turn the storms usually do.

I got rid of the giant avatar. When I logged in I thought it said to make it 400 x 400!

Man I'm sleepy