TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[HURAKAN]

It took some time but now they get it!!!

[chrisnnavarre]

Personally, I don't see this going away anytime soon. While it will most certainly become a tropical depression today, the LLC rotation is still there. I also don’t see this going fishing anytime soon. Looks to be both south and west of forecast track again this morning. I believe Ingrid will wait out this shear and move just as Accuweather predicted somewhere in the vicinity of PR. Then it will become a significant threat to the CONUS. Then next 24 hours are going to tell the tale. If it’s still there tomorrow, I think it will be there until Tuesday and then things will really get interesting. By the way the area in the SW Caribbean looks interesting this morning as well. Models continue to ping on something down there, and if I lived along the Gulf Coast I wouldn’t let my guard down just yet. A squeeze play for the state of Florida could be in the works.

[cycloneye]

15/1145 UTC 16.1N 52.9W T2.5/2.5 INGRID -- Atlantic Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Still hanging on as a storm.

[wxman57]

Sheared and exposed, Ingrid is almost certainly a TD now. If the LLC does survive intact for 2-3 days then it may be able to regenerate as it turns out to sea to the north and northeast. Doesn't appear to be a threat to any land area, unless you consider it a threat to northern Europe when its moisture "hits" Norway in 10 days or so.

(don't take that as a literal forecast for Ingrid to hit Norway, I didn't check to see where the moisture would be in 10 days. That was a joke!)

[cycloneye]

INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.3N LONCUR = 53.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M


12:00 UTC BAMS initial plot downgrades to TD,However it is moving west at 275 degrees.

[wzrgirl1]

Personally, I don't see this going away anytime soon. While it will most certainly become a tropical depression today, the LLC rotation is still there. I also don’t see this going fishing anytime soon. Looks to be both south and west of forecast track again this morning. I believe Ingrid will wait out this shear and move just as Accuweather predicted somewhere in the vicinity of PR. Then it will become a significant threat to the CONUS. Then next 24 hours are going to tell the tale. If it’s still there tomorrow, I think it will be there until Tuesday and then things will really get interesting. By the way the area in the SW Caribbean looks interesting this morning as well. Models continue to ping on something down there, and if I lived along the Gulf Coast I wouldn’t let my guard down just yet. A squeeze play for the state of Florida could be in the works.

The official forecast track almost surely takes it out to sea....chances are very slim that it will do otherwise

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Because its partly exposed with the strongest of the shear going over it. Does not mean it can keep its self going. Believe me these things will fire up there convection unless things become so hostile that they can't. I don't think this shear will get over 40 knots to do it. This just has to get to at least 20 north/60 west, by that time the systems should be out of the shear belt. Yes there be shear from the ULL, but it might be less then 20 knots.

I would never ever write it off. I still believe it could be a border line tropical storm like Kyle 2003 as it moved across the western Atlantic as it was getting sheared.

[Thunder44]

Dr. Lyons on TWC just said that it could comeback and threaten Bermuda, before it curves back out to sea. We tend to forget that island out there There's also a NOAA plane in the storm too.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Despite being downgraded in the ATCF database at 8AM EDT, around that time obs, probably not included in that analysis, from the NOAA plane indicated that this still is indeed a tropical storm based on flight level and SFMR surface winds.

At 8:01AM EDT:
30 second sustained flight level wind: 38 knots
10 second peak flight level wind: 39 knots
Rain rate: 5 mm/hr
10 second estimated SFMR surface wind: 38.0 knots

It depends how it looks in the next few hours as to whether they keep it a storm or not.

---

ATCF 2AM EDT: 16.3N 52.3W
NHC 5AM EDT: 16.5N 52.7W
ATCF 8AM EDT: 16.3N 53.3W

[canegrl04]

Bring on Jerry

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



¡HASTA LA VISTA, BABY!

[Fego]

Good morning... Who want to laugh?

Ingrid according to the CMC.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



Life is being taken out of Ingrid.

[Buck]

Anyone reminded of 2005's Irene?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Anyone reminded of 2005's Irene?

Yes, that is what this is doing.

[CrazyC83]

Anyone reminded of 2005's Irene?

Yes, that is what this is doing.

I don't think this is going away anytime soon. It should weaken to a TD, but I think this can sustain itself through the toughest times (it is about 1/3 the way through the high shear in my view). By Monday or Tuesday, I think Ingrid will ramp up again...

One thing to note: if the circulation dissipates and regenerates, I believe it is still named Ingrid.

[wavegazer]

is it still moving WNW?

[cycloneye]

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.7 WEST OR ABOUT
510 MILES...820 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16
KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN IN A DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

['CaneFreak]

Lixion (spelling) Avila did an excellent job writing the discussion this morning. This went exactly with what I am thinking at the present time. Good Job Lixion (spelling), I could not have said it better myself

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



This is what expectations give you. So much was expected from 91L and most neglected 90L. And who won at the end?