Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[NcentralFlaguy]

rofl!!!

[Evil Jeremy]

ah, I havnt heard a crow comment in a while.

[boca]

Okay, enough of this...in the latest advisory, Noel is forecast to be BETWEEN Andros Island and the SE Florida coastline...HOW CAN they NOT post a tropical storm watch??? Watches are to be issued 36 HOURS IN ADVANCE. We are closing in on 24 hours now.

Seriously, there are no tropical storm watches posted anywhere BUT THERE ARE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR ALL THE BAHAMAS. Would it not make sense to issue a tropical storm watch SOMEWHERE BY NOW....

Someone please cure my Confuseditis, but is it true that whenever any watches or warnings are posted for the SE Florida coastline, the South Florida economy (i.e. tourism, government office closings, etc.) goes down temporarily and loses money. If this is a money issue, by no means should FINANCIAL reasons ever be placed in front of SAFETY reasons.

AND THE LATEST NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS NOEL TO MAKE A SOUTH FLORIDA LANDFALL FOR PETE'S SAKE! IT'S ON THE STORM2K HOMEPAGE!

It's dinner time!

Hey Daniel whats that side dish next to the crow I was staring at it and couldn't figure what that was I think its worms.

[CourierPR]

this is likely not going to make the Caribbean. This slowdown is indicative of a VERY sharp turn

THANK YOU DEREK! FOLKS, when Derek says Noel is moving Northeast, pay attention.
I REALLY APPRECIATE someone like Derek affirmatively stating the Noel is no threat whatsoever to FL.

I am sure my friends in Florida must be happy.

The storm is now SSE of So FLA and it has not turned yet.

[Canelaw99]

OK, I'm not saying that Noel is going to hit here or it isn't, but these 100% certain statements are a bit premature in my opinion. We need to see what's going on over the next 12 hrs or so before we can have a clue what's going on with Noel I think.

As for here in S FL, it's been absolutely pouring here in Homestead off-and-on since around 6, so I won't be surprised to see more rain a little further north of here through the night and into tomorrow as the bands get closer. Strong band moving through now with winds up to 55mph according to the weather alert I just got.

[NcentralFlaguy]

Okay, enough of this...in the latest advisory, Noel is forecast to be BETWEEN Andros Island and the SE Florida coastline...HOW CAN they NOT post a tropical storm watch??? Watches are to be issued 36 HOURS IN ADVANCE. We are closing in on 24 hours now.

Seriously, there are no tropical storm watches posted anywhere BUT THERE ARE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR ALL THE BAHAMAS. Would it not make sense to issue a tropical storm watch SOMEWHERE BY NOW....

Someone please cure my Confuseditis, but is it true that whenever any watches or warnings are posted for the SE Florida coastline, the South Florida economy (i.e. tourism, government office closings, etc.) goes down temporarily and loses money. If this is a money issue, by no means should FINANCIAL reasons ever be placed in front of SAFETY reasons.

AND THE LATEST NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS NOEL TO MAKE A SOUTH FLORIDA LANDFALL FOR PETE'S SAKE! IT'S ON THE STORM2K HOMEPAGE!

It's dinner time!

Hey Daniel whats that side dish next to the crow I was staring at it and couldn't figure what that was I think its worms.

looks like spinach

[fci]

oh, I see it. Florida is by no means out of the woods yet. Even if it just clips us, and don't start giving me some junk about dew points and dry air, we are going to be clobbered. Sure, the dry air will kill some of the rain on the storm's western side, but all of it? Very unlikely.

Ah Jeremy; it is great to see you make a 180 in about 2 hours.
We were NEVER going to get clobbered by Noel
Serious overstatemnet.

All we ever were going to get was the wind (that we are getting now) and scattered very fast moving showers wind-driven moving like at 40 mph.

Oh well, there is always the 2008 season!!

[Emmett_Brown]

No N turn yet, still a slow W drift. Going to turn soon, no doubt, but isnt doing it now.

The low level center and the mid level center are not aligned. The center along the NE coast is mid level. Shortwave IR clearly shows the sheared low level center still over Cuber moving due W at a crawl.

Wouldnt be surprised to see the low level center "dragged" toward the very deep convection that is forming with the mid level center. It wouldnt be a smooth motion, but a N bounce as part of a center reformation or alignment.

Lucky this wasnt happening about 3 weeks ago. Could have been a major heading through the straits. Lucky year for the US.

[gatorcane]

OK, I'm not saying that Noel is going to hit here or it isn't, but these 100% certain statements are a bit premature in my opinion. We need to see what's going on over the next 12 hrs or so before we can have a clue what's going on with Noel I think.

As for here in S FL, it's been absolutely pouring here in Homestead off-and-on since around 6, so I won't be surprised to see more rain a little further north of here through the night and into tomorrow as the bands get closer. Strong band moving through now with winds up to 55mph according to the weather alert I just got.

agreed we need to stop making absolute statement. I do think Noel is really starting to organize now. Also have we thought that maybe because we don't have the VIS loops now that we can't tell that the system is still moving WNW at a decent speed? The IR can be VERY deceiving..

For those in South Florida that would like to venture out for Halloween tomorrow, be prepared for wind gusts surpassing at least 40mph near the coast....that is a bit stormy if you ask me...

[NcentralFlaguy]

no ..you can still view the cuban radar though . its pretty clear

[Category 5]

Okay, enough of this...in the latest advisory, Noel is forecast to be BETWEEN Andros Island and the SE Florida coastline...HOW CAN they NOT post a tropical storm watch??? Watches are to be issued 36 HOURS IN ADVANCE. We are closing in on 24 hours now.

Seriously, there are no tropical storm watches posted anywhere BUT THERE ARE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR ALL THE BAHAMAS. Would it not make sense to issue a tropical storm watch SOMEWHERE BY NOW....

Someone please cure my Confuseditis, but is it true that whenever any watches or warnings are posted for the SE Florida coastline, the South Florida economy (i.e. tourism, government office closings, etc.) goes down temporarily and loses money. If this is a money issue, by no means should FINANCIAL reasons ever be placed in front of SAFETY reasons.

AND THE LATEST NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS NOEL TO MAKE A SOUTH FLORIDA LANDFALL FOR PETE'S SAKE! IT'S ON THE STORM2K HOMEPAGE!

It's dinner time!

LOL! We've been handing out so many Crows lately, I think they're close to becoming extinct.

[jlauderdal]

I'm confident now that this will turn and we probably won't get a drop of rain out of this other than quick showers.I'm not cancelling any outside Halloween plans for tomorrow. This system will hit that brick wall. The trough in the GOM is starting to move east. Say hello to heavy water restrictions for the dry season folks.

this was probably never going to be a rain event for us but here we go:

Phase 3 water restrictions return for West Palm

By Joel Hood | South Florida Sun-Sentinel
9:58 AM EDT, October 30, 2007



West Palm Beach water utility customers have been placed back on Phase 3 water restrictions beginning today as Lake Okeechobee continues to struggle with severe drought conditions.

Residents with odd-numbered addresses may water their lawns on Saturdays only, between the hours of 4 a.m. and 8 a.m. Residents with even-numbered addresses can only water their lawns on Sunday, between 4 a.m. and 8 a.m.

West Palm Beach officials recommend residents conserve indoor water use by taking shorter showers and fixing leaky faucets. They also ask that residents water their lawns for only 12 to 15 minutes at a time, not the entire four-hour window.

The restrictions apply to all residential and commercial customers.

Residents can wash cars and boats between 4 a.m. and 8 a.m. and from 5 p.m. to 7 p.m. on their specific water days. Washing should be done on non-paved surfaces such as streets or driveways and water run-off should not drain onto paved surfaces.

Residents may hand water outdoor plants with one hose from 5 p.m. to 7 on their water day. Landscaping planted within the last 30 days may be watered on Monday, Wednesday and Saturday from 2 a.m. to 8 a.m.

Customers who use more than 6,000 gallons of water a months will face a water surcharge fee of 30 percent.

[Emmett_Brown]

:uarrow: no ..you can still view the cuban radar though . its pretty clear

Have the link to Cuban radar... there are so many pages, i have trouble locating it.

[Blown Away]

A 40mph wind will get your attention and will rattle the trees and the kids tomorrow. I've been measuring wind tonight and I've been getting 25-30 mph winds and it's blowing out there.

[Air Force Met]

oh, I see it. Florida is by no means out of the woods yet. Even if it just clips us, and don't start giving me some junk about dew points and dry air, we are going to be clobbered. Sure, the dry air will kill some of the rain on the storm's western side, but all of it? Very unlikely.

Ah Jeremy; it is great to see you make a 180 in about 2 hours.
We were NEVER going to get clobbered by Noel
Serious overstatemnet.

All we ever were going to get was the wind (that we are getting now) and scattered very fast moving showers wind-driven moving like at 40 mph.

Oh well, there is always the 2008 season!!

Clobbered? By Noel? Someone actually used those terms. You know...I'm not sure I can stomach being on this board if there ever is a REAL threat to south Florida. I might go insane.

[NcentralFlaguy]

:uarrow: no ..you can still view the cuban radar though . its pretty clear

Have the link to Cuban radar... there are so many pages, i have trouble locating it.

page 84

[cpdaman]

Air force met do you think the center could be re-locating under the heavier convection to the east now?

[boca]

We are already being affected by Noel the erosion up in the treasure coasts and up towards Palm beach is really serious. No beach left up there.Its getting very close to property up there. I just heard on the news in Lake Worth the sea wall collapsed and the condos are in deep trouble.

[Vortex]

Miami Beach now gusting to 45mph...

PTCLDY 78 70 76 NE16G23 29.94S
W PALM BEACH LGT RAIN 78 71 79 E15G24 29.97R
FT LAUDER-EXEC PTCLDY 80 68 66 NE25G32 29.94R
FT LAUDERDALE MOCLDY 82 68 62 NE23G32 29.92R
POMPANO BEACH PTCLDY 80 69 69 E25G33 29.94R
PEMBROKE PINES MOCLDY 80 68 66 NE26G33 29.95S
OPA LOCKA CLOUDY 81 69 67 NE24G35 29.92R
MIAMI CLOUDY 81 68 64 NE17G33 29.92R
MIAMI BEACH N/A 81 73 77 NE36G45 29.89

[Blown Away]

Reality: Noel is still moving almost due W, but very slowly. If Noel were to make it to the SFL coast it would only be a minimal TS. It's pretty obvious to my untrained eye that Noel is starting to respond to the trough moving in, the only option is N then NE. Noel made it 78W, he has come up about 120 miles short of SFL. I'm pleased to be be tracking discussing a storm on October 30th, I only wish our love of weather didn't have to come at the expense of people losing lives & property, unfortunately that is the reality. Thanks Noel, give me my 40 mph+ gusts w/o the rain tomorrow so my kids can get some candy and get the heck out of here.