Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[boca]

Reality: Noel is still moving almost due W, but very slowly. If Noel were to make it to the SFL coast it would only be a minimal TS. It's pretty obvious to my untrained eye that Noel is starting to respond to the trough moving in, the only option is N then NE. Noel made it 78W, he has come up about 120 miles short of SFL. I'm pleased to be be tracking discussing a storm on October 30th, I only wish our love of weather didn't have to come at the expense of people losing lives & property, unfortunately that is the reality. Thanks Noel, give me my 40 mph+ gusts w/o the rain tomorrow so my kids can get some candy and get the heck out of here.

Actually we need the rain in the Lake O area and also the parched SE.

[destruction92]

oh, I see it. Florida is by no means out of the woods yet. Even if it just clips us, and don't start giving me some junk about dew points and dry air, we are going to be clobbered. Sure, the dry air will kill some of the rain on the storm's western side, but all of it? Very unlikely.

Ah Jeremy; it is great to see you make a 180 in about 2 hours.
We were NEVER going to get clobbered by Noel
Serious overstatemnet.

All we ever were going to get was the wind (that we are getting now) and scattered very fast moving showers wind-driven moving like at 40 mph.

Oh well, there is always the 2008 season!!

Clobbered? By Noel? Someone actually used those terms. You know...I'm not sure I can stomach being on this board if there ever is a REAL threat to south Florida. I might go insane.

I knew it! No real threat to SoFla. A pro-met saying that Noel does not threaten Florida is great news!

[Vortex]

00Z NAM says west young man west...

H+36

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036l.gif

[Blown Away]

Reality: Noel is still moving almost due W, but very slowly. If Noel were to make it to the SFL coast it would only be a minimal TS. It's pretty obvious to my untrained eye that Noel is starting to respond to the trough moving in, the only option is N then NE. Noel made it 78W, he has come up about 120 miles short of SFL. I'm pleased to be be tracking discussing a storm on October 30th, I only wish our love of weather didn't have to come at the expense of people losing lives & property, unfortunately that is the reality. Thanks Noel, give me my 40 mph+ gusts w/o the rain tomorrow so my kids can get some candy and get the heck out of here.

Actually we need the rain in the Lake O area and also the parched SE.

I agree that Lake O needs the rain but that is mainly from SFWMD mismanagement. SFL has had about average rainfall this year.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/curre/rainmaps/year.html

[Vortex]

IR 2 145UTC confirms due west and could be moving into the carribean water during the next 3-4 hours...

[Air Force Met]

Air force met do you think the center could be re-locating under the heavier convection to the east now?

I don't think it has happened yet...but give it time and it is certainly possible.

[destruction92]

00Z NAM says west young man west...

H+36

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036l.gif

Isn't the NAM an unreliable model?
And if Noel is moving west like you said, why is it moving slower and "west-northwest" according to the NHC?

It's slower movement is indicative of it about to make a sharp turn NE. I bet it will be moving northeast by the 2 AM advisory if not by midnight.

[Vortex]

00Z NAM says west young man west...

H+36

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036l.gif

Isn't the NAM an unreliable model?
And if Noel is moving west like you said, why is it moving slower and "west-northwest" according to the NHC?

It's slower movement is indicative of it about to make a sharp turn NE. I bet it will be moving northeast by the 2 AM advisory if not by midnight.

I bet it's not moving NE at 2AM

[HURAKAN]

Lets play the Flip Flop game.

For what I can read many members that were flipping in the afternoon are now flopping.

What I find very interesting throughout Noel's lifetime is that nobody has been able to make an accurate forecast. It seems like Noel is reading everything everyone is saying and then he decides to do the opposite.

[ericinmia]

Here is an interesting read from earlier that I just found. Its the cuban version of our NHC advisories...

Aviso de Ciclón Tropical.
Centro de Pronósticos, INSMET.
Fecha: 30 de Octubre de 2007 Hora: 06:00 PM.

AVISO DE CICLON TROPICAL No 13.

TORMENTA TROPICAL NOEL.

... Noel continúa lentamente al Oeste...

Desde Villa Clara y Cienfuegos hasta Guantánamo debe prestarse atención a la evolución de la Tormenta Tropical Noel debido a las lluvias fuertes y localmente intensas que lo acompañan, principalmente en zonas montañosas. Estas lluvias se trasladarán gradualmente a la región Central de Cuba, lo que resulta lo más importante, ya que en los sistemas ciclónicos débiles la posición del centro es de muy poca significación práctica.

La región central pobremente definida ha continuado con rumbo Oeste a 12 kilómetros por hora. A las seis de la tarde se encontraba, según las observaciones de superficie, en los 20.9 grados de latitud Norte y 78.0 grados de longitud Oeste, en el municipio de Santa Cruz del Sur, provincia de Camagüey.

Al tener la circulación sobre tierra, Noel se ha debilitado más y ahora posee vientos máximos sostenidos de 65 kilómetros por hora. Su presión central continua siendo de 1001 hectoPascal.

Se pronostica que la región central de Noel mantendrá durante las próximas horas el rumbo Oeste, a unos 12 kilómetros por hora, cercano a la costa Sur de Camagüey, con poco cambio en intensidad e inclinando su rumbo gradualmente al Noroeste en las próximas 24 a 36 horas, con posibilidades de emerger por la costa norte del centro del país en la tarde de mañana.

Se reitera que lo más importante de esta situación meteorológica son las fuertes e intensas lluvias que ocasionarán en las próximas 24 a 48 horas sobre la región oriental, extendiéndose a la región central mañana.

El próximo Aviso de Ciclón Tropical se emitirá a la media noche de hoy martes.



J. M. Rubiera M. T. Llanes

[Vortex]

IR2 still confirms w/wnw movement at this hour

[Blown Away]

That's why I love late season storms. Pretty obvious that Noel is still moving W at a decent clip, you can see the cloud field moving W on the IR. Would be cool if Noel totally busts the NHC track and goes W into the NW Caribbean. I do expect Noel to start turning within the next 12 hours.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[Derek Ortt]

all I see is a slowdown on the sat image

should not make the Carib and even if ti does, does not increase the chances at all of a Florida strike

[Evil Jeremy]

00Z NAM says west young man west...

H+36

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036l.gif

Isn't the NAM an unreliable model?
And if Noel is moving west like you said, why is it moving slower and "west-northwest" according to the NHC?

It's slower movement is indicative of it about to make a sharp turn NE. I bet it will be moving northeast by the 2 AM advisory if not by midnight.

Maby NE at 11AM or 2PM, but 2AM? Please!

[destruction92]

00Z NAM says west young man west...

H+36

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036l.gif

Isn't the NAM an unreliable model?
And if Noel is moving west like you said, why is it moving slower and "west-northwest" according to the NHC?

It's slower movement is indicative of it about to make a sharp turn NE. I bet it will be moving northeast by the 2 AM advisory if not by midnight.

I bet it's not moving NE at 2AM

Maybe not, but just when I am starting to feel good about my friends in Florida, you try to take my hopes away by posting a bogus unreliable NAM model. All the pro-mets here, including Derek, think that Noel will not be a threat to Florida...I trust them more than wobble watching and a never reliable NAM model.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 310231
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

...NOEL STILL DUMPING HEAVY RAINS OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST OR VERY NEAR
CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 255 MILES...405 KM ...SOUTH OF NASSAU.

NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS
MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...NOEL IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF
OF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE CENTER MOVES OVER
WATER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA....WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS
OF 30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN
HISPANIOLA... ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...21.4 N...78.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

Some squally weather just past by my house, sorry for the quality of the video:



The girl talking on the back is my sister!

[Typhoon_Willie]

Destruction92 you have had a reaaly serious NE bias with your posts and yes the storm at some point will head off to the NE but do not pronounce that South Fla is in the clear or say great news for So Fla just yetwhitle the Hurricane Center is telling South Fla resdients to keep an eye on the storm! Say great news for South Fla when it is actually passing far enough to the east of Fla as to not affect it.

[cycloneye]

WTNT41 KNHC 310238
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA AND THE CAMAGUEY RADAR INDICATE THE
THE CENTER IS NOT FAR FROM THE CITY OF CAMAGUEY. INFRARED IMAGERY
AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW THAT INTENSE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NOT
FAR EAST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER...BUT SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS
REMAINED OVER LAND IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT NOEL HAS STRENGTHENED AND
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT.

CENTER FIXES FROM SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA
SUGGEST THAT NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE WESTWARD MOTION HAS CEASED. INITIAL
MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 315/4. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
BASICALLY UNCHANGED. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OF NOEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD AS A SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS STEERING FLOW EVOLUTION
SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN
TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED AS NOEL GETS
CAUGHT UP IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS
DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE FORWARD SPEED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS RATHER CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...CONU.

ONCE THE CENTER OF NOEL EMERGES INTO THE ATLANTIC...THERE WILL BE A
SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN.
HOWEVER...IN 36-48 HOURS...WESTERLY SHEAR IS DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS
MODEL TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30 OR 40 KT. THIS SHOULD TERMINATE ANY
FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM...AT LEAST AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. IN 3 TO 5 DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS TRANSFORM NOEL INTO A
VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH OVER
THE U.S. EAST COAST AND NOEL...BUT ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM. SEE STATEMENTS FROM NWS
LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0300Z 21.4N 78.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 31/1200Z 22.1N 78.8W 35 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
24HR VT 01/0000Z 23.3N 78.8W 40 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 01/1200Z 25.1N 78.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 02/0000Z 27.6N 76.5W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 03/0000Z 34.5N 69.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 04/0000Z 42.0N 62.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 05/0000Z 51.0N 55.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE

[Brent]

FL is out of the cone.