Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... AXw01a.gif

the northerly turn has begun

[Evil Jeremy]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 00716.html

Florida is out of the path now. Also, the latest forecast does not mention a possible future TS Watch.

[Air Force Met]

all I see is a slowdown on the sat image

should not make the Carib and even if ti does, does not increase the chances at all of a Florida strike

I agree...I don't see much movement at all. There is perceived motion because the bands are moving and the cirrus is moving...but it isn't moving that fast at all....maybe 5 kts.

[Air Force Met]

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/04Camaguey/cmwMAXw01a.gif

the northerly turn has begun

Was there ever a doubt?

[destruction92]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 310231
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

...NOEL STILL DUMPING HEAVY RAINS OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST OR VERY NEAR
CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 255 MILES...405 KM ...SOUTH OF NASSAU.

NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS
MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...NOEL IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF
OF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE CENTER MOVES OVER
WATER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA....WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS
OF 30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN
HISPANIOLA... ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...21.4 N...78.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE

Yes! Now the NHC is now backing off from its earlier speculation of posting a tropical storm watch for Florida. All it's saying now is just to keep an eye on Noel. I know I've said this many times, but now I mean it 100%...let the champaigne spraying begin. See you later hurricane season 2007!

[cycloneye]

Florida is out of the cone.

[HURAKAN]

I don't see what we need to celebrate when the rain is needed desperately.

[Derek Ortt]

nope, never a doubt about this turn, AFM

[CrazyC83]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 310231
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

...NOEL STILL DUMPING HEAVY RAINS OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST OR VERY NEAR
CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 255 MILES...405 KM ...SOUTH OF NASSAU.

NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS
MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...NOEL IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF
OF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE CENTER MOVES OVER
WATER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA....WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS
OF 30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN
HISPANIOLA... ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...21.4 N...78.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE

Yes! Now the NHC is now backing off from its earlier speculation of posting a tropical storm watch for Florida. All it's saying now is just to keep an eye on Noel. I know I've said this many times, but now I mean it 100%...let the champaigne spraying begin. See you later hurricane season 2007!

Ummm, not so fast...there have been hurricane hits in Florida as late as December 1...

[Evil Jeremy]

Yes! Now the NHC is now backing off from its earlier speculation of posting a tropical storm watch for Florida. All it's saying now is just to keep an eye on Noel. I know I've said this many times, but now I mean it 100%...let the champaigne spraying begin. See you later hurricane season 2007!

You know, just because it is not mentioned right now does not mean that it wont happen.

[HURAKAN]

[Derek Ortt]

Sandy,

we have had average rainfall. Thanks to SFWMISMD, we need a severe to catastrophic flood to bring the Lake just to normal levels

[Air Force Met]

Destruction92 you have had a reaaly serious NE bias with your posts and yes the storm at some point will head off to the NE but do not pronounce that South Fla is in the clear or say great news for So Fla just yetwhitle the Hurricane Center is telling South Fla resdients to keep an eye on the storm! Say great news for South Fla when it is actually passing far enough to the east of Fla as to not affect it.

You need to go back about 10 or 20 pages and read what I posted about it not making a hill of beans whether this moves over south FL or east of it (except that over it you get a little more rain...which is a good thing). The gradient with the high to the north is what is putting the winds on the coast...so...you get the same impacts regardless of WHERE it moves...hence the reason there is no TS watch...but a gale warning.

Too many people are getting hung up on the track of Noel and not seeing the fact that in this scenario...IT DOESN'T MATTER...the impacts are the same...especially since the dry air over Florida is likely to reduce the convection on the west side to all but a few passing showers.

[HURAKAN]

Sandy,

we have had average rainfall. Thanks to SFWMISMD, we need a severe to catastrophic flood to bring the Lake just to normal levels

But a weak to moderate tropical storm would have been beneficial since we're now going into the dry season.

[Air Force Met]

Yes! Now the NHC is now backing off from its earlier speculation of posting a tropical storm watch for Florida. All it's saying now is just to keep an eye on Noel. I know I've said this many times, but now I mean it 100%...let the champaigne spraying begin. See you later hurricane season 2007!

You know, just because it is not mentioned right now does not mean that it wont happen.

You've got a gale warning...its the same thing when it comes to Noel since it won't be pumping out 60 kts on the coast. What do you want? The thrill of seeing "TS Warning" on a little box in the lower left portion of your TV screen?

[Stratosphere747]

Too many people are getting hung up on the track of Noel and not seeing the fact that in this scenario...IT DOESN'T MATTER...the impacts are the same...especially since the dry air over Florida is likely to reduce the convection on the west side to all but a few passing showers.

AJC3 was saying the exact same thing last night AFM. Of course it seemed to be easily dismissed because a LF was not being called for even though the effects would be the same, sans the rain.

[Air Force Met]

Too many people are getting hung up on the track of Noel and not seeing the fact that in this scenario...IT DOESN'T MATTER...the impacts are the same...especially since the dry air over Florida is likely to reduce the convection on the west side to all but a few passing showers.

AJC3 was saying the exact same thing last night AFM. Of course it seemed to be easily dismissed because a LF was not being called for even though the effects would be the same, sans the rain.

Hey...in this situation...the rain is GOING to stay east...sorry. And the closer the center gets to you...the lower the winds will be because the center is going to be a little broad. So...if I was wanting to see stuff blow around...I would actually want this to move about 60-100 miles SE of me. Let the gradient set up. If it moves over you...you won't see jack.

[wxman57]

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/04Camaguey/cmwMAXw01a.gif

the northerly turn has begun

Was there ever a doubt?

As I was just mentioning to our team at the office, the only possible track adjustment now would be east of Andros Island. Noel may not get too much farther west. Could well be the last storm of any significance for 2007. Wouldn't rule out a mid Atlantic storm of subtropical origin before the season ends.

Time for bed. Have to get up early to issue Noel advisories. Should be fairly easy.

[Evil Jeremy]

How high do you think the winds will get in SE FL?

[Air Force Met]

How high do you think the winds will get in SE FL?

Some spots will see 45 mph along the coast in gusts...about what they are getting now. The gradient is about as tight as it is going to get...maybe a little tighter. There may be an isolated gust to 50 mph...that can't be ruled out. Sustained at about 30 or so along the coast at the closest approach. Since we are dealing with gradient winds rather than pure convective...it will be over a larger area.

OK...bed time. Worked a mid last night and haven't slept yet.