CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[HURAKAN]

It may be but I would watch the Islands first than I can see to where it goes from there. If it come a strong Hurricane it can go NW and just miss the Islands. Now be a good thing. I know will not happen.JMO only

I think it's moving too fast, low latitude and it's already past 45W to be able to avoid the islands. I would like to be proven wrong by Dean.

[Meso]

Link, which way did it flop?

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

[HURAKAN]

[TampaFl]

From Weatherunderground: Historical Climo map with tracks of where Dean is this morning. Note only 2 hurricanes traverse the caribbean & hit mexico/South Texas. Thoughts & comments welcomed.

Robert

[tgenius]

It looks like Dean is getting a bit more organized, I was reading on Jeff Master's blog about people thinking the WNW movement may have begun already, any opinions?

[greels]

I thank you for your interest in the Turks and Caicos Islands. It makes life easier for me to have this thread.....as I am with the Red Cross on these islands and will be part of any preparation needed to prepare for any weather system which might impact our Islands, I simply don't have the time to be reading through endless threads trying to get a better handle on the current status of an impending storm.
Gretchen

[flwxwatcher]

Now you have ECMWF even takeing this thing to the south of southflorida in the coming days.Its hard not to notice the general trend of the models takeing this feature in a gilbert or allen type of track.

Yes.. lets see if the models are staring to come into better agreement. Lets see if we can string several more runs in a row with the models staying consistent because the trend is your friend.

[robbielyn]

It looks like there are two big balls of convection. The main one Dean, and a round ball beneath that. What's up with that?

[windstorm99]

From Weatherunderground: Historical Climo map with tracks of where Dean is this morning. Note only 2 hurricanes traverse the caribbean & hit mexico/South Texas. Thoughts & comments welcomed.

Robert

Yea tampafl i was looking at that last night and indeed climo would suggest a track north of the islands.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

What will the affect of TD5 be on the highs/lows CONUS and the Atlantic Ridge??? I don't think any of the models are taking the developing gulf strom into much consideration at this point. When I look at the models, many don't even show the gulf system at all, or if they do, very very weakly. What will the remnants of the system do? Will a trough be in the place of the storm? Will it be back filled by an eastward moving high that should protect TX but potentially send a storm to the upper gulf? Any insights???

[knotimpaired]

I have spent many days in Provo.

Rest assured that soon we will get some Pro Met info and also know we will be standing behind you in any time of need.

[ciclonson]

Looks like three go west, three hit FL, and three recurve out to sea. Pretty even distribution. Anybody's guess.

[HURAKAN]

The final track of Dean will be determined by the intensity of the storm, the intensity of the ridge, and the intensity of the trough of low pressure / cut-off ULL. Dean will most likely feel a weakness that will be created by the trough, but will the ridge be weakened enough to allow Dean to move in a more NW direction or will it hold and keep Dean west or WNW? We just have to wait and see.

[CrazyC83]

I'd say 55 or 60 kt right now...

[HardCard]

I have two words for dean "Stay Away.."

Honestly, I wouldn't count ANYWHERE in the Gulf out.. (Yucatan all the way around to the keys) .. With a forecast this far out, so much can (and of course, will) change..

Me personally? I'm hoping for a mexico or south texas landfall (Sorry!!!!!!!).. I have no desire to evacuate and lose half my crap again (New Orleans)...

Meanwhile.. The flow on Dean is looking a little sickly this morning.. Is he incurring heavier sheer than yesterday?
I'd say the models have him nailed in the next 72-96 hours, meanwhile intensity is still a big question in my mind.. I think this puppy has a shot at intensifying a little more rapidly than the forecast anticipates, SST's are high and the environment is like a storm making factory in the caribbean,,, We'll just have to see I guess.

[cpdaman]

i don't think it has started moving wnw it is probably when the big ball of convection wraps along the north of the center that people noticed colder cloud tops further north

great question treasure island girl, sorry i can't help you on that 1, but we should have a promet in the house

[robbielyn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html If you notice by the islands the tutt is pulling a stream northward. It extends all the way down to south america. I am not so sure that tutt isn't going to pull it northward some. The tutt needs to pull it's "arm" up and out there fast if it's going to keep dean going westward.

[robbielyn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html If you notice by the islands the tutt is pulling a stream northward. It extends all the way down to south america. I am not so sure that tutt isn't going to pull it northward some. The tutt needs to pull it's "arm" up and out there fast if it's going to keep dean going westward.

Last year the tutts kept pulling storms out to sea.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Dean certainly appears to be strengthening. The structure
is very well defined. And convection is intensifying, so I
would say 55 mph at 11 AM at least based on the models
50 kt reading.

[HURAKAN]

15/1145 UTC 12.1N 45.2W T3.0/3.0 DEAN

Dvorak increases.