linkerweather wrote:Chrissy,
Good question. But, it seems to me that the timing will play out that TD 5 shouldn't impact the overall environment enough to affect too much the overal synoptic pattern. Even longer range, TD5/ERIN wouldn't just sit over TEXAS and eventually cause a troughiness there. With that said, I would still want to see more run to run consistancy even with respect to the scope of the atlantic high's westward movement overt ime
Thanks Josh.
I like to use this HPC issued website:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day3nav_pre.html to view the highs, lows, ridges, fronts and get an easier idea of the projected movements of all of these in trying to guess where a storm may go. What I see with HPC's rendition though, is that they have no impact of TD5 and don't even show Dean getting into the picture at all within 7 days. that's why I asked, to see if TD5's impact would somehow make things move differently.
I agree that the models have been flopping around regarding how the Atlantic ridge builds in over the southeast. Some show a stronger ridge over a broad area, some show the ridge bulging into the states starting at a higher latitude than others, but all seem to eventually bring it over the entire southeast,(our protection?), but how fast it does this and how far to the south the ridge "protects" is what the models are still debating.
I think that if Dean goes predominently west across the Carribean and progs south of Haiti, it is not an issue for Florida at all, but I think points from Pensacola to NE Mexico will be under the gun.
