CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[jasons2k]

>>Exactly...this is pointing at many of us along the gulfcoast..and all of us have been through our share...just have to pull together and pull through...looks like a monster

Agreed. But when all is said and done, I really think some people who stomp their feet in their obvious state-casting posts should be given an opportunity to admit what they were doing (= ultimately trolling) all along. If I get the time, I'll comb the damn threads myself and cut and paste all those proclimations that will never come to pass.

But for now, all of us are at risk. Most of us (except for some of our friends in the NE and newer residents to the Houston area) have been through some loss of life and/or property from storms in the past. And that includes the islands. We're possibly 7, maybe 8 days away from a life-altering situation for several of our fellow posters. It's a good idea to know where your important documents are, buy some bins for your photos and such if you have to evacuate. You might come home to a molding house in decay (me) or a house with nothing left at all but the slab (just ask Frank P).

It's early yet, but as someone who lost everything from my house to my 3 kids for a year while they attended school in New York State, trust me. It ain't nothing nice.

Steve

Well said Steve. The state-casting nearly drove me nuts too, especially on Monday when the GFS took a huge dump.

Anyway, I have tried to be very careful in not saying anything more than I'm confident this will be a Caribbean system. Unfortunately, at this point, I'm pretty confident this will become a GOM storm as well. It's still a long ways out but it's getting to the point of no return for some of our US members to be impacted. When I saw the satellite shots this AM and then read Derek's analysis I literally felt a pit on my stomach. This one won't be a fun one to track.

I know some people (family & friends), personally, that lost everything in Katrina. I don't know anyone who has gone back, except one family I know relocated from Kenner to Hammond. Your words are chilling, especially coming from you, as pre-Katrina you pretty much said 'bring it on'. My how times have changed.

[Brent]

[DESTRUCTION5]

They had their first meet in 06....Some lives were lost there as some groundskeepers stayed...They were hit hard by Katrina but eventually opened and raced about a year or so later.

OK must have just missed the meet..all this FL and NY racing keeps me busy..

[Ivanhater]

Cat 3 Jamaica

[vacanechaser]

Wouldn't be surprised to see a rudimentary eye form this afternoon--strong tropical storms form them as they approach hurricane strength.

agreed...looks like the inner LLC is becoming tight enough now that signs of a premature eye (very premature) are showing up

certainly looks like it is really starting to get its act together... one thing about that though, as it does, it could start to strengthen quickly from here on out.. so everyone in the caribbean needs to be aware of it... also, once it begins to strengthen, it may start to change the surrounding enviornment as it begins to do its job, relaese the heat.. that may start a whole different set of problems with the modeling as well... will be good to get that G4 out there tomorrow...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[tracyswfla]

So after reading the 11am NHC discussion, it seems that Dean will continue in a westward motion, doesn't sound like there will be a northlerly component.

Just asking, not forecasting.

[Cyclone1]

Latest Advisory out.

60mph, 997mbar.

[KWT]

Worth noting that Dean is a good 0.6 degree further north in lattiude then was forecasted 24hrs ago for this same time. No a huge amount but obviously if it keeps drifting to the north like this then the models well start to re-adjust back north in the latter parts of its run.

[Brent]

So after reading the 11am NHC discussion, it seems that Dean will continue in a westward motion, doesn't sound like there will be a northlerly component.

Just asking, not forecasting.

There is a slight northerly component(12.0 at 11pm, 12.2 at 5, 12.4 now), but overall yeah, at least through the next few days.

[Steve]

>>Your words are chilling, especially coming from you, as pre-Katrina you pretty much said 'bring it on'. My how times have changed.

My house survived Katrina with only a 50 year old pecan tree that had fallen onto my breakfast area and cracked the roof/celing, etc. The levees took care of the rest on Tuesday. Yeah, I always wanted to witness a Cat 2 or so, but you learn your lessons.

Steve

[HurricaneQueen]

knot:

Thanks for starting this thread for all of the islanders and some of us parttimers. In any storm my first thoughts go to the Caribean-you, MJ, MsBee, Irina (until recently), Cycloneye and so may others.

Unless you have sat on an island watching a hurricane barreling at you, you can't not understand what it is like. It is bad enough for us in the states but as some one (you?) mentioned there is no I-95 or other way to get out of harms way. Generally, we have plenty of time to get out of Dodge so although the physical damage may be great we have the option to save our lives.

One on the worst experiences ever in my long life was watching Luis heading straight for us on St. Maarten in 1995. The worst was the aftermath-indescribable unless you've been there. The most amazing thing is that so very few people back in the states even knew that Luis was out in the Atlantic let alone the devastating effects he had on so many of the islands. I know it changed my life forever although I didn't lose my house, family or friends.

So... please know that there are some of us that do put the horse in front of the cart. All Atlantic storms get my full attention until they are fishies. I do worry about all of you down there.

Lynn

I'll be in SXM on the 25th! Can't wait to get back "home".

[cajungal]

As of now, I am feeling a little bit more comfortable that it is trending more to the south. Hope the trend continues. It may very well just go into Mexico or Central America.

[Steve]

>>Fairgrounds still destroyed?

We got to go 3 or 4 times last season. Same great deals ($2.50 gumbo with a nice slab of french bread) and a bunch of almost-trifecta hits. One of these days....

My oldest son did hit $110 on a quinella though.

Steve

[Wx_Warrior]

That would be wonderful for the US mainland but I still remain very optimistic and not narrow minded. Models are all over the place and expect nothing more than more model shifts until Thursday into Friday.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Looking at the GFS in about 18 hrs, I don't see that it even has the TUTT in the solution.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

But it's clearly there.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

Hmm. Thoughts? I guess my gut tells me that given the climo history and the fact that 5 days from now an undeveloped feature can have a large impact on track, I am not going all in on the GOM outcome

[Rainband]

anywhere but here...sorry but I don't want that kind of "action"

[Bluefrog]

exactly ... anywhere but here too ...

[BensonTCwatcher]

anywhere but here...sorry but I don't want that kind of "action"

Oh agreed, too bad we can't "fold" when it it gets bad...

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Not that I mind comments like this as part of the Dean "Discussion", but it would be nice if you included some relevant facts, analysis or imagery, like the title says....

Come on Dean i've been training you for weeks atleast you can do is come visit your favorite trainer thats me.

[windstorm99]

Jeff Masters....

None of the computer models are forecasting that Dean will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. The trough of low pressure that will pass north of the islands on Saturday is now expected to be a bit weaker than earlier forecast, which should allow Dean to pass into the Caribbean on a west to west-northwest track. The trough is no longer forecast to spawn an upper-level low pressure system, which means that the danger to the U.S. East Coast north of the Carolinas is minimal. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in after the first trough passes on Saturday, which should keep Dean on a west to west-northwest path into the middle of next week. The southernmost model solutions (GFDL, Canadian) take Dean into Honduras early next week. The more northerly solutions of the GFS and HWRF take Dean over Jamaica, then into the Gulf of Mexico. No models call for a threat to the east coast of Florida at present, but that could change once we see how strong Saturday's trough of low pressure really will be. The NOAA jet is scheduled to make its first flight Thursday night, and by Friday morning we should have a good set of model runs that will give us a more reliable idea of Dean's likely track. At present, it appears that Dean's main threat to the U.S. will be to the Gulf of Mexico coast