Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[drezee]

61 kt unflagged SMFR reading

130930 2611N 08151W 4103 07380 0377 -150 -309 230009 009 061 000 00

[ExBailbonds]

I am no pro but i have been a extreme weather junkie since i was a teenager. I am 38 now. Noel is running into a rubber wall right now it is just a matter of time before that ruber wall starts to snap back and send it north east.

[Typhoon_Willie]

May want to check out the IR loop as it seems that Noel maybe under going some intensification now.

[NcentralFlaguy]

well ,this just wont go away will it. the convection seems to be expanding to the west im not sure if that is movement or if that is just re-organization, i will say this. Its the best Noel has looked in some time....and what is everyone seeing on the WV the trough is still in the nw gulf.

[Evil Jeremy]

It seems to be that the through is thinning out.

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 311317
AF307 0716A NOEL HDOB 27 20071031
130530 2256N 07859W 8434 01501 0013 +184 +164 051039 039 036 002 00
130600 2256N 07859W 8434 01501 0015 +181 +164 049039 040 035 003 00
130630 2257N 07903W 8432 01503 0015 +183 +161 049041 042 035 003 00
130700 2257N 07905W 8428 01508 0014 +186 +159 049041 042 034 002 00
130730 2258N 07907W 8431 01505 0016 +185 +160 049041 042 033 002 00
130800 2258N 07909W 8428 01509 0017 +185 +161 052040 040 032 002 00
130830 2258N 07911W 8431 01507 0019 +182 +165 054037 039 031 004 00
130900 2258N 07913W 8430 01509 0021 +181 +164 057034 036 033 003 00
130930 2259N 07915W 8428 01510 0022 +181 +163 059032 033 032 003 00
131000 2259N 07917W 8429 01512 0024 +180 +165 058031 031 032 004 00
131030 2259N 07919W 8429 01513 0024 +182 +164 056031 031 031 003 00
131100 2300N 07921W 8429 01515 0025 +180 +165 058030 030 030 003 00
131130 2300N 07923W 8430 01515 0029 +179 +165 058030 031 029 003 00
131200 2300N 07925W 8430 01516 0030 +178 +164 058030 031 032 003 00
131230 2300N 07927W 8426 01520 0031 +175 +165 059031 032 031 004 00
131300 2301N 07929W 8432 01515 0034 +175 +166 059031 032 030 003 00
131330 2301N 07931W 8429 01520 0036 +173 +167 061032 032 029 003 00
131400 2301N 07931W 8429 01520 0038 +170 +169 062032 032 029 003 00
131430 2301N 07935W 8428 01521 0041 +166 +166 064030 031 030 003 00
131500 2302N 07937W 8428 01520 0046 +158 +158 065033 035 031 003 00

[NcentralFlaguy]

I believe the trough is strong, it will blast Noel back out to the NE, I am just saying that it doesnt look like thats happening at the moment .. and the center is certainly re-organizing to the north and east of the old one. the appearance of a westward movment is prob decieving . it just may be some expansion of the cloud shield slightly to the west. oh well in any case its right on your doorstep so just stay alert its getting to the point where a jog here or there could be the difference.

[caneman]

After looking at WV loop and seeing the clouds expanding West and looking at 06 GFLD which seems to have shifted West now looks like it will pass just 60-80 West of SE Florida. HWRF still shooting it between the Bahamas and SE. Fl. I'm thinking they'll will have to put up TS warnings for So. Florida at 11:00 to be safe. Remember folks it was just a couple of days ago that this was suppose to pass some 300-500 miles to the East. JUST my opinion.

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 311327
AF307 0716A NOEL HDOB 28 20071031
131530 2302N 07939W 8432 01518 0043 +164 +164 067032 034 030 003 00
131600 2302N 07941W 8429 01523 0045 +165 +165 067031 031 029 003 00
131630 2303N 07943W 8428 01524 0045 +165 +165 066032 032 030 003 00
131700 2303N 07945W 8430 01524 0049 +159 +159 062032 033 029 004 00
131730 2303N 07947W 8431 01523 0044 +167 +167 056033 033 030 003 00
131800 2303N 07949W 8430 01524 0043 +169 +169 050034 035 032 003 00
131830 2304N 07951W 8430 01525 0042 +172 +172 047036 037 031 003 00
131900 2304N 07953W 8426 01529 0043 +171 +171 048038 038 029 004 00
131930 2304N 07955W 8432 01525 0045 +171 +171 049037 037 031 004 00
132000 2305N 07957W 8426 01527 0045 +170 +170 048040 042 034 006 03
132030 2305N 07959W 8203 01727 0014 +161 +161 052039 041 999 999 03
132100 2306N 08000W 7860 02101 0013 +145 +144 052033 035 999 999 03
132130 2306N 08002W 7554 02436 0002 +138 +112 048033 034 999 999 03
132200 2307N 08004W 7260 02775 0005 +121 +098 041032 033 999 999 03
132230 2307N 08006W 6980 03119 0012 +106 +082 046030 032 999 999 03
132300 2308N 08008W 6710 03449 0012 +089 +070 042025 027 999 999 03
132330 2308N 08009W 6472 03752 0005 +080 +027 026024 025 999 999 03
132400 2309N 08011W 6257 04031 0005 +063 +013 023024 025 999 999 03
132430 2310N 08013W 6050 04308 9998 +049 +002 021024 025 999 999 03
132500 2310N 08015W 5880 04538 9997 +035 -008 018023 024 999 999 03

Ascending, mission over.

[NcentralFlaguy]

also, remember the previous batch of runs could have been initialized poorly, due to reformation of the center.

[HenkL]

VDM from mission 0716:

URNT12 KNHC 311308 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162007
A. 31/12:49:20Z
B. 22 deg 42 min N
078 deg 10 min W
C. NA mb 1390 m
D. 35 kt
E. 156 deg 043 nm
F. 186 deg 041 kt
G. 134 deg 089 nm
H. 995 mb
I. 21 C/ 1524 m
J. 18 C/ 1524 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 /8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF307 0716A NOEL OB 09 CCA
MAX FL WIND 41 KT SE QUAD 12:15:20 Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 42KT NW QUAD 1259Z

[boca]

That could be intensification or blow up of thunderstorms expanding west while the system is moving NNW at 7 like the NHC is saying.I hope we are in the clear otherwise I'll be eating crow again for this and my cone thread.

[HenkL]

Another plane en route, coming in from the NW, over Florida Keys at the moment:

URNT15 KNHC 311332
AF302 0816A NOEL HDOB 14 20071031
132000 2533N 08117W 4102 07382 0377 -150 -347 296008 008 034 000 00
132030 2531N 08115W 4102 07386 0379 -150 -355 297006 007 036 000 00
132100 2530N 08113W 4100 07386 0380 -150 -362 296007 007 058 000 00
132130 2528N 08112W 4102 07385 0380 -150 -360 295007 008 060 000 00
132200 2526N 08110W 4100 07387 0381 -150 -360 299007 007 094 000 00
132230 2524N 08109W 4102 07386 0382 -150 -358 299008 008 130 000 03
132300 2522N 08107W 4100 07389 0383 -149 -366 303010 010 143 000 03
132330 2520N 08105W 4102 07388 0383 -147 -380 298010 010 153 000 00
132400 2518N 08104W 4102 07388 0383 -149 -369 295010 010 137 000 03
132430 2516N 08102W 4100 07391 0384 -153 -355 294010 011 141 000 03
132500 2514N 08101W 4102 07391 0386 -155 -350 293010 010 999 999 03
132530 2512N 08059W 4102 07393 0388 -151 -354 293011 011 087 000 03
132600 2510N 08057W 4102 07393 0389 -155 -366 296010 010 999 999 03
132630 2509N 08056W 4100 07397 0391 -155 -360 294011 011 999 999 03
132700 2507N 08054W 4103 07395 0392 -153 -369 295011 011 083 000 03
132730 2505N 08053W 4100 07403 0396 -151 -379 296011 011 041 000 00
132800 2503N 08051W 4102 07404 0398 -150 -380 296011 011 038 000 00
132830 2501N 08049W 4102 07409 0403 -150 -394 299011 011 039 000 00
132900 2459N 08048W 4102 07409 0403 -153 -392 299010 011 034 000 00
132930 2457N 08046W 4102 07413 0408 -155 -375 303009 010 034 000 00

[Evil Jeremy]

The dew points are not as low as some people thought they would be this morning. 72 in Fort Laurdadale and 73 in North Miami.

[cpdaman]

995 mb pressure drop

cantore in singer island on TWC

gusting to 41 in orlando


i be going to the beach (to watch erosion) will report back

[boca]

Is this a blow up of thunderstorms or is Noel moving more NW?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

This storm is wearing on my nerves.

[caneman]

TS Warnings would be the prudent thing to do irregardless of where the winds are coming from and based on how close some of the models take it.. No sense taking a chance and playing cat and mouse. IMHO.

[wxman57]

Noel definitely looks healthier in the past few hours. But I don't think it's going to be able to track much to the west of its current position. WSW-W winds are increasing across south Florida aloft now as the trof moves in from the west. 12Z RUC has 35kt WSW winds across northern Andros Island at 200mb. So as Noel moves north it'll encounter increasing wind shear. Could get up to 60 mph today, though. The center should cross Andros Island tonight and pass about 125-150 miles east of Miami. All heavy squalls should remain east of the center.

[Blown Away]

After looking at WV loop and seeing the clouds expanding West and looking at 06 GFLD which seems to have shifted West now looks like it will pass just 60-80 West of SE Florida. HWRF still shooting it between the Bahamas and SE. Fl. I'm thinking they'll will have to put up TS warnings for So. Florida at 11:00 to be safe. Remember folks it was just a couple of days ago that this was suppose to pass some 300-500 miles to the East. JUST my opinion.

Could somebody post a graphic of these models that have shifted W and/or the models that supposively landfalled in SFL. I have not seen any of those, all I see are the models moving near/over Andros Island.

[Thunder44]

Is this low cold core now? The Recon reported a colder inner core than outer core:

I. 21 C/ 1524 m
J. 18 C/ 1524 m

It appears to deepening but perhaps transitioning to extratropical at the same time.