Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Guadua]

Looking at the latest visible satellite imagery. Noel is going much more west than north.

[tolakram]

It should be clear of mid level shear for the moment, but you know how shear is.

[Frank2]

That's good news (per Derek's post) - let's take a deep breath folks (just remember to let it out)...

LOL

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 311612
AF302 0816A NOEL HDOB 30 20071031
160000 2311N 07818W 9733 00255 0021 +235 +234 117021 021 030 002 00
160030 2310N 07820W 9732 00254 0019 +235 +234 115023 024 030 001 00
160100 2309N 07821W 9737 00250 0019 +235 +234 115024 025 032 001 00
160130 2307N 07822W 9731 00254 0018 +235 +235 116023 024 030 003 00
160200 2306N 07823W 9735 00249 0017 +232 +232 117026 027 035 000 00
160230 2305N 07824W 9734 00249 0016 +232 +231 117027 028 034 001 00
160300 2304N 07826W 9730 00252 0014 +231 +231 112027 027 034 002 00
160330 2303N 07827W 9737 00244 0013 +230 +230 116028 029 036 000 00
160400 2302N 07828W 9734 00245 0011 +233 +231 118028 029 034 001 03
160430 2300N 07829W 9733 00245 0010 +230 +230 118028 028 035 000 00
160500 2259N 07830W 9737 00240 0008 +232 +232 118028 028 033 003 00
160530 2258N 07831W 9733 00241 0006 +229 +229 116028 028 035 000 00
160600 2256N 07831W 9737 00236 0005 +229 +229 119029 030 034 002 00
160630 2255N 07832W 9730 00242 0003 +226 +226 118028 029 034 003 00
160700 2254N 07833W 9731 00240 0002 +226 +226 117026 027 036 000 00
160730 2252N 07834W 9737 00234 0001 +230 +230 119027 027 036 001 00
160800 2251N 07835W 9734 00236 0000 +229 +229 119026 027 037 000 00
160830 2250N 07836W 9734 00235 9999 +223 +223 121026 027 037 003 00
160900 2248N 07836W 9734 00232 9996 +230 +230 127026 027 037 001 00
160930 2247N 07837W 9733 00232 9994 +231 +231 127024 025 036 002 00

[CronkPSU]

That's good news (per Derek's post) - let's take a deep breath folks (just remember to let it out)...

LOL

if this means Lake O gets rain now out of this without wind, then everyone would be happy

[CrazyC83]

Looks like Noel has decided to dress himself up as a ghost...

[fci]

[
OK, this post has to take the case as one of the most hysterical ones I have seen from you Chris.

Both in terms of how hysterically I laughted and the level of hysteria this has worked you up into.

I would bet anything you have that you will never see a Hurricane Warning from Noel.

Even if ALL OF THE EXPERTS are wrong and it gets real close to us; the associated weather is on the east side and this WILL NOT go west of us so it is a moot point anyway.

Thanks for the fun!

didn't recon find the strongest winds in the nw quad just awhile ago? I do not want a storm other than some rain, maybe. But for those, even the mets, that continue to say it will be nothing - did everyone forget what Charlie did? I am in no way suggesting I think it could pull a Charlie - I'm not, but even with a strong ts we could lose power and I want to be prepared and ready. When it is not following the direction of the NHC then I begin to really keep my eye on it - such as going further west than they had thought, the winds are in the nw quad, etc. There was already a power outage from the winds earlier this morning. These things can defy all odds sometimes and when they are this close to home I am going to keep my eye on them until they are gone. There may be a few with theatrics here but I think most of us just want to see it get past our lat/lon and then we will breathe easy.

Your discussion and rationale is completely valid and, Hallelujah; contains no hysterics or theatrics.
I too have watched systems all my life but there is no real rational answer for why we would suddenly face a Hurricane Noel. EVEN IF this defied all logic and moves NW to the coast, the strongest effects still remain east of the center and all we would get are the winds we have now at worst. In fact; AFM said the closer it gets the LIGHTER the winds for us.
Charlie surprised all by making its expected turn early yet still in the Hurricane Watch area. Noel would have to STOP making the expected turn. Big difference between making the expected move earlier than going counter to the upper air pattern to me.
But thanks for making sense in your discussion and I also subscribe to the "when it is past me I relax" theory. Difference here is that if Noel even comes to the coast we still get not much more than we are getting from the gradient windflow and the associated occasional wind driven showers

[Tropics Guy]

Since Noel has decoupled because of the shear it will be unlikely for it to strengthen. If the LLC makes a run for the Keys then some of the heavier precip will probably rotate into South Florida., now if we can only get it over the big lake Okeechobee, then there might be a silver lining in this, that Noel will be remembered as a friendly Goblin for dumping on the lake & not being a Goul by giving us major beach erosion with very little precip.

TG

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 311622
AF302 0816A NOEL HDOB 31 20071031
161000 2246N 07838W 9739 00224 9992 +229 +229 130026 026 035 003 00
161030 2244N 07839W 9737 00225 9990 +225 +225 136028 029 037 002 00
161100 2243N 07840W 9736 00223 9987 +229 +229 136029 030 037 003 03
161130 2242N 07841W 9735 00220 9983 +230 +230 140030 031 039 000 00
161200 2241N 07842W 9733 00217 9979 +230 +230 142029 030 038 000 00
161230 2240N 07844W 9735 00213 9975 +235 +235 141024 026 035 001 00
161300 2239N 07845W 9733 00212 9971 +239 +239 132018 019 035 000 00
161330 2238N 07846W 9734 00208 9967 +242 +242 120016 016 031 000 00
161400 2237N 07847W 9734 00204 9964 +245 +245 111012 013 030 000 00
161430 2236N 07848W 9731 00204 9961 +245 +245 095006 009 027 000 03
161500 2234N 07849W 9743 00194 9960 +245 +244 025001 004 020 002 03
161530 2234N 07851W 9731 00206 9961 +245 +245 358006 007 999 999 03
161600 2235N 07851W 9732 00205 9962 +244 +244 034011 012 026 000 03
161630 2236N 07852W 9734 00203 9963 +243 +243 047012 012 028 000 00
161700 2238N 07851W 9738 00201 9964 +245 +242 064017 018 028 003 00
161730 2239N 07851W 9733 00209 9967 +244 +244 076020 021 030 000 00
161800 2241N 07851W 9737 00207 9969 +243 +243 078021 022 032 000 00
161830 2242N 07851W 9733 00213 9973 +240 +240 082023 024 033 001 00
161900 2244N 07851W 9737 00212 9976 +238 +238 083026 027 037 000 00
161930 2245N 07851W 9734 00217 9979 +235 +235 087028 029 036 000 00

Extrapolated SLP: 996 hPa

[Blown Away]

That LLC is near 79W now and hints more NW movement.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Guadua]

I'm thinking the same, if it can go more west and give the lake some water. I'm not looking forward to the water restrictions next year....

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 311632
AF302 0816A NOEL HDOB 32 20071031
162000 2247N 07851W 9734 00221 9983 +234 +234 091031 034 037 000 00
162030 2249N 07851W 9737 00222 9987 +230 +230 090033 033 038 002 00
162100 2250N 07851W 9733 00229 9990 +234 +234 090030 031 037 001 00
162130 2252N 07851W 9737 00227 9993 +227 +227 089030 031 036 002 00
162200 2253N 07851W 9736 00230 9995 +234 +234 087030 031 038 001 00
162230 2255N 07851W 9735 00233 9997 +232 +232 085031 032 040 000 00
162300 2256N 07851W 9729 00239 9999 +232 +232 085030 030 037 000 00
162330 2258N 07851W 9733 00239 0002 +230 +230 083030 032 038 000 00
162400 2259N 07851W 9734 00239 0004 +232 +232 084031 031 036 003 00
162430 2301N 07851W 9735 00240 0006 +225 +225 080029 030 037 002 00
162500 2303N 07851W 9737 00240 0007 +232 +232 077030 031 037 002 00
162530 2304N 07851W 9737 00240 0008 +231 +231 074029 030 038 002 00
162600 2306N 07851W 9735 00243 0010 +230 +230 075029 029 036 002 00
162630 2307N 07851W 9735 00245 0012 +229 +229 072028 031 036 000 00
162700 2309N 07851W 9739 00241 0013 +223 +223 070031 032 039 002 00
162730 2310N 07851W 9722 00257 0014 +219 +219 072032 034 040 003 00
162800 2312N 07851W 9739 00245 0017 +209 +209 069032 033 039 003 00
162830 2313N 07851W 9731 00252 0017 +225 +225 070033 034 039 002 00
162900 2315N 07851W 9737 00249 0018 +226 +226 069032 033 038 002 00
162930 2317N 07851W 9736 00251 0019 +224 +224 069032 033 037 001 00

[Weatherboy1]

Definitely not vertically stacked any more. LLC moving roughly W for past few hours, MLC getting hung up by westerly shear. Will this thing get completely "buzz-sawed" apart? Or will Noel's LLC turn N very soon and start reconnecting with its convection? What a mess!

[Shelby6977]

We are already having massive beach erosion here in Brevard County but the locals are still saying it isnt from Noel. Some residents here are actually being told they can bring in their OWN sand. It's crazy.

[hial2]

That's a good map (shows the circuitous route Noel has taken so far)...

It's pretty far from Florida - about the same distance as Miami from Gainesville...

On the far N/W of the map it reads Miami 207 miles (assuming it's accurate)...I can tell you I've worn out many tires going from Miami to Gainesville to see my daughters and it's 379 miles from Miami to the Archer exit of Gainesville off I75..

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 311642
AF302 0816A NOEL HDOB 33 20071031
163000 2318N 07851W 9734 00252 0019 +227 +226 073033 033 037 002 00
163030 2320N 07851W 9734 00253 0020 +227 +226 074033 034 036 002 00
163100 2322N 07850W 9734 00254 0021 +227 +227 073033 034 038 000 00
163130 2323N 07850W 9735 00254 0022 +225 +225 072033 034 038 001 00
163200 2325N 07850W 9737 00254 0024 +224 +224 070036 037 041 000 00
163230 2326N 07850W 9735 00255 0025 +219 +219 069038 039 039 001 00
163300 2326N 07850W 9735 00255 0027 +212 +212 068040 042 041 003 00
163330 2329N 07850W 9739 00254 0028 +210 +210 065043 044 042 003 00
163400 2331N 07850W 9733 00259 0028 +218 +218 063045 047 044 001 00
163430 2333N 07850W 9735 00260 0029 +220 +220 066047 049 043 002 00
163500 2334N 07850W 9734 00262 0030 +221 +221 066046 048 044 001 00
163530 2334N 07850W 9734 00262 0031 +220 +220 067044 046 044 001 00
163600 2337N 07850W 9731 00268 0036 +213 +213 069045 048 043 000 00
163630 2339N 07850W 9732 00267 0034 +222 +222 073044 047 043 000 00
163700 2340N 07850W 9734 00265 0035 +221 +221 071044 045 041 002 00
163730 2340N 07850W 9734 00265 0036 +223 +223 072042 044 042 000 00
163800 2340N 07850W 9734 00265 0040 +215 +215 072043 044 040 000 00
163830 2345N 07850W 9734 00270 0039 +221 +221 070042 043 041 001 00
163900 2347N 07850W 9735 00268 0040 +224 +224 071040 041 039 004 00
163930 2348N 07850W 9733 00271 0041 +223 +223 071041 042 042 000 00

[Steve H.]

Noel is struggling again. Shear is causing him to decouple, only an hour after the NHC said the shear would become a problem in 36 -48 hours , but let's see if the LCC can turn NW and recouple. You would think that it would improve and convection increase as it comes into the water! But there are other factors at work. He still has a good overall structure though, and things can change quickly as we have seen during the past 12 hours. Perhaps he will re-fire convection again.

[hurricanefloyd5]

I dont know if this is in the right post but I have a specal weather statment on noel; and south florida!!!

ps forgive me if it is in the wrong place...

Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1242 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

FLZ068-071>074-168-172>174-312100-
COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY-COASTAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY-
COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY-FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY-
INLAND BROWARD COUNTY-INLAND MIAMI-DADE-METRO BROWARD COUNTY-
METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY-METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE-
1242 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

...SOUTH FLORIDIANS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST ON NOEL...

TROPICAL STORM NOEL HAS EMERGED OFF THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA
TODAY...AND DATA FROM HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT LATE THIS MORNING
INDICATE THAT NOEL HAS STRENGTHENED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW
NEAR 50 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NOEL WAS MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTH TO
NORTHWEST DIRECTION AT 8 MPH. THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE INCREASING SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.

NOEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTHERLY TRACK TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED.

IF THE TREND OF INCREASING WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
STORM CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
WOULD POSSIBLY BE CLOSER TO THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INNER
CIRCULATION OF NOEL TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

THE STRONG WINDS OF THE PAST TWO DAYS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE...OR GRADIENT...BETWEEN A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND TROPICAL
STORM NOEL TO THE SOUTH. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. NEVERTHELESS...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER INCREASE IN WINDS LATER TONIGHT OR
EARLY THURSDAY AS THE WINDS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH NOEL APPROACH
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.

DUE TO THE COMPLICATED NATURE OF THE SITUATION...ALL PERSONS IN
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ARE URGED TO STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST
ADVISORIES AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND THE
MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE...AND HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL
OFFICIALS IF TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE ISSUED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

MOLLEDA

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 311652
AF302 0816A NOEL HDOB 34 20071031
164000 2350N 07850W 9732 00276 0042 +222 +222 070043 044 042 000 00
164030 2351N 07850W 9734 00273 0043 +224 +224 072041 044 042 002 00
164100 2353N 07850W 9737 00271 0044 +224 +224 073042 043 041 002 00
164130 2354N 07850W 9736 00272 0045 +225 +224 073043 046 043 001 00
164200 2356N 07850W 9731 00279 0046 +225 +223 073043 044 042 003 00
164230 2358N 07850W 9735 00275 0047 +226 +222 075042 044 041 000 00
164300 2359N 07850W 9733 00277 0047 +225 +224 075040 042 040 002 00
164330 2401N 07850W 9734 00278 0048 +225 +223 076041 042 041 001 00
164400 2402N 07850W 9734 00278 0050 +226 +224 076040 041 040 001 00
164430 2404N 07849W 9736 00278 0051 +225 +225 075038 039 040 002 00
164500 2406N 07849W 9733 00281 0052 +225 +225 076041 042 040 001 00
164530 2407N 07849W 9735 00280 0053 +224 +224 076040 041 041 000 00
164600 2409N 07849W 9734 00282 0054 +225 +223 077040 040 039 003 00
164630 2411N 07849W 9733 00284 0054 +225 +223 076041 042 039 003 00
164700 2412N 07849W 9736 00282 0055 +224 +222 077040 042 039 003 00
164730 2414N 07849W 9736 00281 0056 +225 +222 075039 040 039 002 00
164800 2415N 07849W 9737 00283 0057 +225 +223 074038 040 040 000 00
164830 2417N 07849W 9734 00286 0058 +225 +222 075039 040 040 001 00
164900 2419N 07849W 9736 00285 0058 +225 +221 074036 037 038 002 00
164930 2419N 07849W 9736 00285 0059 +226 +220 075037 039 038 003 00

[HeatherAKC]

Alrighty, then.

Make up your mind, Noel!

Halloween festivities on! No, they're off. No, now they're on. Now off!

I can't keep up!

We have a huge family gathering tonight at my house every year and one moment it's on, the next moment it's off. I was anticipating conditions like we see now and figured the gathering was still on and the little one's could T or T at a few houses between the squall lines.

Oy!