CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Wasn't there a storm last year that the GFS put into there too at this point that ended up instead going N and then NE and didn't even hit the US at all? It too was "supposed to" miss the trough and fooled many.

[windstorm99]

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Yup...GFS will become more accurate this weekend. I think it will be farther north. Just my opinion.

[MGC]

Dinky Dean. Quite a small TC. Glad to see the models are trending south. Keep Dinky Dean out of the GOM. Dean could make hurricane late today or tomorrow....MGC

[artist]

I do not like the looks of that and what is to come. All you on the islands please take care and I will be thinking about you.

[cycloneye]

The best thing to do is to wait for the gulfstream jet that will be flying tommorw.The upper enviroment data will be digested by the models and it will become more clear the scenarios.

[vaffie]

that's good that the GFS is taking it further south. Hopefully it will miss all the islands and then Mexico may need to keep an eye out for this one

It's not good at all, Convergence Zone. It's disastrous news for Texas. This GFS model run and the previous couple are saying that the ridge is going to be very strong. They portray a weak Dean however. A strong Dean, like what the NHC is predicting of Category 3+ is going to go north of where a weak Dean would go. If the GFS therefore takes it into the Yucatan/Mexico, a strong Dean would go through the Yucatan Channel and into Texas. This is bad.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

True, because we need that data!!!! The GFS started improving with Rita once it flew in. Is the Gulfstream flying in tomorrow?

[hurricanetrack]

Wouldn't that just be something- the GFS "said" Mexico several days ago and then tried different tracks. Now it is back to Mexico with a final pair of landfalls. Perhaps, just perhaps, the GFS got it right 12 days out- maybe more. Of course, with all of the ridging that the models are showing to the north of Dean, how hard is it to predict a general WNW track for 3000 miles? This will be really interesting to watch b/c if the GFS nailed this sucker that far out and even now, then wow! That would be remarkable.

[cycloneye]

True, because we need that data!!!! The GFS started improving with Rita once it flew in. Is the Gulfstream flying in tomorrow?

Yes.

[StormWarning1]

I think this run was out to lunch. The storm isn't pegged nearly at what we assume will be the correct intensity. Think about it... if Dean traverses teh hot carribean virtually unscathed by any land interaction, do you really think it will get WEAKER?! Please!

A strnger storm will certainly go more poleward. If Dean is in the middle of some rapid intensification (possibly now), by the time he gets closer to the troughs, there will be more affect on him, causing a more northerly drift.

This will probably be considered a bogus run in retrospect.

(I have also noticed that Erin is going more northerly than projected just a few hours ago, which will cause more time over water and more strengthening possibility (only slight mind you, but still. )

The storm was kept weaker that you might expect because of shear. Shear is difficult to forecast so that might change in later runs.

Intensity does not affect the track.

This is the 5th run in a row that shows a west motion.

[Wx_Warrior]

Any time frame they are heading out?

[destruction92]

168 500.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168l.gif

Mexico or TX in this run.

More likely Mexico. Come on...its depicted in the southernmost reaches of the Bay of Campeche hundreds of miles to the SSE of Brownsville...saying Texas is a bit of a stretch IMO.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Land fall Mexico!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192l.gif

[Wx_Warrior]

192...Hola Brownsville

[JPmia]

Wouldn't that just be something- the GFS "said" Mexico several days ago and then tried different tracks. Now it is back to Mexico with a final pair of landfalls. Perhaps, just perhaps, the GFS got it right 12 days out- maybe more. Of course, with all of the ridging that the models are showing to the north of Dean, how hard is it to predict a general WNW track for 3000 miles? This will be really interesting to watch b/c if the GFS nailed this sucker that far out and even now, then wow! That would be remarkable.

Actually, this model over the past few days has forecasted a landfall in almost every state including Mexico and Central America so far. So whatever happens, it already forecaseted it to occur! Need Recon!

[Scorpion]

Landfall is more north this run... could make a trend toward TX

[oyster_reef]

192...Hola Brownsville

I think that's Tampico Mexico. few hundred miles South of Brownsiville

[mf_dolphin]

I love this line from the link Msbee provided,

"Nobody in his right mind who has ever experienced a major hurricane hit would wish for one, yet that is exactly what the islands and their people must get ready for. Better safe than sorry."

That's the God awful truth.....

[cycloneye]

These are historical tracks from the 11 AM position of Dean.