CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Th eflight in also samples the atmospheric conditions around the storm to determine the strengths and weaknesses of them too. There are flights that do just that...not even entering the storm, but sampling the surrounding atmosphere. That data can then be included into the model runs to get a more accurate picture of what is really going on in real time.

[SouthFloridawx]

The faster Dean moves the closer he'll get to the trough.

[artist]

Alright folks, yall know the drill: alot of you have probably been around for awhile, but for those of you who aren't:

In a quick nutshell: I'm Scott, third year undergraduate meteorology/math + other stuff major at the Univ. of Miami. I've been working on a variety of projects at UM and at the Univ. of Oklahoma over the past couple years, but forecasting has always been my thing, so to speak. This is my sixth year of forecasting (granted six years ago it was quite marginal), and it takes alot of time; but I enjoy it. In any case, I'll be around quite a bit more with tropical activity going up, so feel free to make comments and start discussion, etc.

Should have a new web design coming out sometime soon too; I've been having some trouble getting it to work universally, but when it works, the site will look fresher and much easier to navigate!


Storm2K disclaimer: The following post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Nencweather.com disclaimer: Although these forecasts are statistically reliable (see link), always first consult and consider official products released by the National Hurricane Center. This forecast is not associated with any amateur or professional source of information except nencweather.com


Dean Forecast 5 and TD Five Forecast 2:
viewtopic.php?f=29&t=97082

Scott

any new thoughts?

[EyELeSs1]

i think the apparent northward motion is more due to the storm ebcoming mroe symmetric... the clouds are expanding north

So Derek is it still on it's predicted westward path rather than wnw as it may seem now?

[Steve]

>>Who says that Dean has not tried to reform its center several times before? By the time a storm starts to "gell" or intensify, it will start moving more poleward, not due west like some of the models are showing, like the GFDL into Central America and GFS into Mexico.

You've been fighting a battle for an east coast storm for the last two days. It might happen. It might not. I have no idea. But every post (I'm not going to copy and paste them all), you keep finding a way to implicate Dean as an east coast system.

Steve

[KWT]

The system has been tracking to the north of the NHC forecast tracks for the last 30hrs now, I posted a few hours ago how it was 0.6 degrees north of the forecast at the last update compared to the previous 24hr forecast. It should be noted however the GFDL did latch onto this WNw movement on its last run and got upto about 15N then flat-lined it into the Caribbean the whole way across.

[z-bail]

what does "initialize the storm" mean?

[HURAKAN]

I don't see why any of the intensity forecasts is not compensating for the possibility of rapid deepening.

[Steve]

initialize = +/- starting point/eye-center location at that given time

Steve

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

That may be true, however, that was an identified problem that they tried to "fix" and resolve for this year's use. They could very well have overcompensated.

Possibly, but if you look at all of the GFS model runs so far for TD4/TS Dean, you will see that they have all been north of where it actually ended up, so I seriously doubt they've overcompensated. It has been saying WNW for days, whereas it was actually going WSW.

I agree with your analysis of the past movement, but that has nothing to do with whether the model was overcompensating for troughs... Dean hasn't had to encounter any yet. That encounter doesn't (or won't) occur until later in the model runs.

[HeatherAKC]

z-bail,

I'm not a professional, but it is my understanding that the model runs we have been looking at contain NO actual dynamics of the atmosphere around and near Dean. Kinda like guesses. When we get realtime data from recon, the models will run with some real idea of the conditions effecting Dean. Will it make much difference? I don't know, hence my question at the top of the page.

Maybe a Professional could chime in.....Will new data really change things much?

[EyELeSs1]

eyewall forming?

[windstorm99]

[destruction92]

The system has been tracking to the north of the NHC forecast tracks for the last 30hrs now, I posted a few hours ago how it was 0.6 degrees north of the forecast at the last update compared to the previous 24hr forecast. It should be noted however the GFDL did latch onto this WNw movement on its last run and got upto about 15N then flat-lined it into the Caribbean the whole way across.

Well the GFDL data is based on the vomit thrown out by the GFS.

[oyster_reef]

it it still possible Dean has a chance to "hop" the islands and move towards South Florida or the Carolinas or has it already moved too far west?

[Scorpion]

Yes.. no doubt we have an eyewall developing

[Agua]

initialize = +/- starting point/eye-center location at that given time

Steve

+ direction + speed + pressure

[HURAKAN]

If you want something more compact than this you may get Tracy or a black hole!!!

[BigD]

So you shift the box over to the east by a block and you get the same effect, in fact, seems like that would be a better 'box', as ALL of the tracks passed right thru it.


Right?

[cheezyWXguy]

The storm has taken a tiny jog to the wnw, maybe .1-.2 degrees north. The rest you see right now is the expanding and organizing of the CDO, and the eyewall forming. In an hour, the storm should be back to moving W, and the forecast track will probably not be changed much if at all. Also, the trough, is not that strong, even according to Jeff Masters. Regarless, the trough, will likely not extend THAT far south. 12N is one hell of a low point for a trough this time of year, and will likely not pick up Dean, especially at the way its organizing now

Jeff masters:

No models call for a threat to the east coast of Florida at present, but that could change once we see how strong Saturday's trough of low pressure really will be.

Also by Jeff Masters:
None of the computer models are forecasting that Dean will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. The trough of low pressure that will pass north of the islands on Saturday is now expected to be a bit weaker than earlier forecast, which should allow Dean to pass into the Caribbean on a west to west-northwest track