CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

tracy would ahve fit inside of this things inner-core

Tracey was really just a large waterspout.

[storms in NC]

is it still possible Dean has a chance to "hop" the islands and move towards South Florida or the Carolinas or has it already moved too far west?

Possible, yes. Likely, NOT. Dean seems to be a Caribbean storm according to what we know so far.

It all will come down to the ridge. So no it is not to late. Look at the one post about the HB and you will see Good Boy Floyd there.

[Lowpressure]

is it still possible Dean has a chance to "hop" the islands and move towards South Florida or the Carolinas or has it already moved too far west?

At this point anything is possible, but the Leewards seem to be a pretty good bet. The recent more notherly movement is interesting, but we need to see if it persists before any real shifting of reasonable thought.

[PTrackerLA]

Dean seems to be growing in size a little as well as trying to form an eye wall. I wonder how the more northward motion/position will affect the models this evening.

[HURAKAN]

tracy would ahve fit inside of this things inner-core

Tracey was really just a large waterspout.

A very strong one, I have to give her that!!!

[Scorpion]

Latest image:

[Sabanic]

All I know is that after watching these storms for over 25 years, we are a long way at the present time from knowing where Dean will end up.

[windstorm99]

[Scorpion]

Barring a westward jog it should pass north of the forecast point

[Steve]

>>Thanks for clarifying that Steve. If it is at TUTT level then GFS is right for ignoring it. However, I think there is some trough quality to it since it bends back towards TD5 and seems to be inhibiting it like trough engrainment does sometimes. Just a technical point there - maybe true, maybe not.

What I was referring to is the current one. I don't see anything coming out of Canada that's going to dig that far south (per the WV loop imagery) by this weekend. But you never know. Sometimes in winter they're talking about an artic blast in 2 or 3 days that doesn't even look like it's on the map, then lo and behold, it's freezing after being 80 the day before.

So I don't see anything else that's going to be in those latitudes with the possible exception of the TUTT filling, cutting off (looks like a swirl near the apex or base of it now) and possibly retrograding as the recent concentric ULL's have been doing (including the one pre Erin that sparked the pattern reversal for its transformation from tropical wave and subsequent feedback).

I'm going to keep looking as there's nothing I'd rather see than a non-GOM storm at this point. But so far, I didn't see anything that would appear to have potential for digging that hard (and certainly, the WPAC teleconnections aren't in line with a recurvature).

I'll keep checking the NOVA Weather Canadian site. They even have a sewn map of WV images in the artic circle. There are a few swirls, but nothing I can get my eyes to believe will result in any major amplification. Of course it's only Wednesday, and we've still got 2 1/2 days until Saturday.

Steve

[Sabanic]

Barring a westward jog it should pass north of the forecast point

True, but as we all know jogs do not matter, trends do . .

[Sanibel]

Yes, I made a post about this being important earlier and was "LMAO"-ed at. ehemm, ehemm...

[Evil Jeremy]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_04.gif

i take it that the rectangles are the much discussed "Herbert Boxes"?

[deltadog03]

This 285-290 movement has not been a wobble though. It has been like that for 6hrs or so.

[CronkPSU]

>>I was talking about the next check point LOLOLOL

I agree that it appears like it will be north of the next check point.

Steve

FWIW Derek posted in the global models thread that he thinks it isn't moving north, we are just seeing the northern half of the storm filling in and expanding

[cycloneye]

Is getting closer to 13n.

[EyELeSs1]

Seems like the initial location of Dean is inaccurate in these new runs?

TROPICAL STORM DEAN ANALYSED POSITION : 12.6N 44.7W

i would say more like 12.6N 46.5W (2 full degrees west)

GFDL seems to have the same problem?

[windstorm99]

[jhamps10]

yeah now I offically call this a trend. of course it can always turn back to the south a bit, but right now everything appears to be north of forecast checkpoint.

[Steve]

>>FWIW Derek posted in the global models thread that he thinks it isn't moving north, we are just seeing the northern half of the storm filling in and expanding

He may be right, I don't know. Watching loops can play tricks on the mind, but I see it at about roughly 12.8 or so. If it's filling it due to asymetry, it's possible the center could be rotating or spinning a bit. But to my eyes, I think it's picking up a little bit of latitude.

Steve