CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Cyclone1]

Hello guys. I see the track has really shifted south.

That could change, it looks like Dean may have jogged north. (just my amateur opinion)

[BensonTCwatcher]

I don't think we are seeing a wobble or expansion north, If I look at the entire circulation and the center as well it looks like it will cross 13N before 48W and that will be different solotion in the models for sure. Spaghetti for dinner. (model tracks)

[jhamps10]

visible eye is another 12-18 hrs?

if that, I suspect with D-max we will see an eye.

[Windspeed]

For those of you who are considering a model shift based on the N of due west motion the past six hours, consider that consensus motion by the models is already set for a motion north of due west, a few almost 290 degrees. So a heading of 280º is pretty much in the model consensus.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early2.png

[Evil Jeremy]

Spaghetti for dinner. (model tracks)

[SouthFloridawx]

Looks elongated, North to South... even notice that on the SSD close up too.

Although the Global Models are showing a westward movement, Dean is already becoming a deep layered and stacked system. A more intense area of low pressure is going to cause Dean to want to move poleward. I submit to you WV imagery, that shows the trough and ULL cutting off from the trough. This looks like a fairly intense ULL. Even though we see the GFS showing the 500mb holding in, we need to remember that a deep more vertically stacked system isn't just going to be steered at the 500mb, but also @ the 400mb.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html

Via that water vapor loop we can see the NW part of the Ridge already breaking down. If this ULL should strengthen, prepare this to be a major factor in the steering of this system.



Personally, if the ULL continues... I would look for the turn to the wnw, much sooner and more of a turn to the NW, until the ridge closes off again.

If I were to forecast, I would say that the North Islands are going to have to pay very close attention, and FL and the GOM are certainly not in the clear.

[Weatherfreak14]

Its definatly still on a WNW heading, it will be something if it makes this its main heading.

[Wx_Warrior]

Don't count out the EC trof just yet.....

[DESTRUCTION5]

Is it me or are we all trying to play miracle worker on the track after 5 days this year...Id say 99% of the time the 5 day is not even close!

So you think this will totally miss the 5-day cone?

No not saying that but 5 day Verification is rarely right...Think its 17-25%...I remember Ivan after i just got blasted by Frances flipping on the TV (with Generator) and they had the nasty SOB running right up the spine of FL...It made landfall about 300 miles further west..So everything unless you are mother nature or God we are completely speculating...

[SouthFloridawx]

There is a distinct break/breaking down of the ridge on the NW side.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html

[BensonTCwatcher]

visible eye is another 12-18 hrs?

if that, I suspect with D-max we will see an eye.

Probably so

Check out the 37 Ghz on the Navy site

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[Weatherfreak14]

Is it me or are we all trying to play miracle worker on the track after 5 days this year...Id say 99% of the time the 5 day is not even close!

So you think this will totally miss the 5-day cone?

No not saying that but 5 day Verification is rarely right...Think its 17-25%...I remember Ivan after i just got blasted by Frances flipping on the TV (with Generator) and they had the nasty SOB running right up the spine of FL...It made landfall about 300 miles further west..So everything unless you are mother nature or God we are completely speculating...

Has been there a time where almost all models have miscaculated a track and a storm taken a different path than expected.

[Sanibel]

Continue west incorrect. System already north of next forecast point.

Watch out for Florida if that CONUS ridge fills east after Dean moves NW.

[beachbum_al]

For all of those in the path of Dean know that you are in my prayers.

[KWT]

Its been moving north of the NHC track for the last 36hrs, its not like its just started doing so!
Also the GFDL has been showing this to a certain extent over the last 3-4 runs. I think in the long run that ridge is gonig to re-build as the upper trough moves out of the way but the question is how much latitude will Dean gain before it re-builds. The GFDL has been generally taking it upto about 15N before flattening it to just north of west.
I think the general set-up is going to be like forecasted but the whole track will have to be adjusted northwards. Thats what i think anyway!

[cycloneye]

vacanechaser,(Jesse) Is part of your team comming down to the Caribbean to intercept Dean?

[canegrl04]

I'm predicting Dean to be a Gulf hurricane . (just my opinion,don't take as fact)

[SouthFloridawx]

Here is a 5-Day Loop of the 200-700mb steering layers, you can clearly see the trough and ULL off the east coast. Until the Trough fully pulls out, we will continue to see shortwave impulses along the axis.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8dlm6/wg8dlm6java.html

[KWT]

HWRF looks to be around the 940mbs mark and hardly weakens Dean at all over Jamacia coming out at around 944mbs before bombing down to 936mbs 6hrs later. Looks like it'll skim the Yucatan on this run.

[ronjon]

As far as the long term track goes, here is HPC's text from this morning. There is quite a bit of uncertainty beyond 2-3 days.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1006 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

VALID 12Z SUN AUG 19 2007 - 12Z WED AUG 22 2007

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING INCREASING SPREAD WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND AND THE SUBSEQUENT INLAND TRACK OF ASSOCIATED/DEVELOPING SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND RAINFALL FOCUS ACROSS THE US MID-LATITUDES. THIS ALSO ULTIMATELY IMPACTS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OUT THRU THE SERN/SRN US THAT IS EXPECTED TO STEER TROPICAL STORM DEAN OUT FROM THE CARIBBEAN NEXT WEEK.