CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[windstorm99]

As far as the long term track goes, here is HPC's text from this morning. There is quite a bit of uncertainty beyond 2-3 days.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1006 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

VALID 12Z SUN AUG 19 2007 - 12Z WED AUG 22 2007

MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING INCREASING SPREAD WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND AND THE SUBSEQUENT INLAND TRACK OF ASSOCIATED/DEVELOPING SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND RAINFALL FOCUS ACROSS THE US MID-LATITUDES. THIS ALSO ULTIMATELY IMPACTS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OUT THRU THE SERN/SRN US THAT IS EXPECTED TO STEER TROPICAL STORM DEAN OUT FROM THE CARIBBEAN NEXT WEEK.

Into the GOM?

[Derek Ortt]

if it moves much farther north of the forecast points, it will move smack into the SAL and it will have a period of struggle like yesterday afternoon. Just something to consider

[Steve]

>>There is a distinct break/breaking down of the ridge on the NW side.

That would be correct (due to the TUTT). 12Z GFS Upper Data still progs it to cut off and move west ahead of Dean, but not all that much (5-7 degrees). So we'll have to watch the evolution of the TUTT to ULL for any hints. Looks like it's going to be sometime Saturday (didn't freeze frame it based on hours).

Okay, went back:

Looks like +/- 72 hours the trough split is in effect as Dean hits the islands:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072s.gif

It then cuts off between 78-82 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084s.gif

Here's the full upper loop (1000/500mb) as to what its thinking is on that trough. This will be something to follow the next day or two because timing will be critical to what follows:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Steve

[Scorpion]

So far the ECMWF has it near the coast of Haiti at 96 hours

[Cyclenall]

Could Dean look like this soon??:


The image is of Hurricane Bud from the 2006 eastern Pacific hurricane season.

[SWFLA_CANE]

Its been moving north of the NHC track for the last 36hrs, its not like its just started doing so!
Also the GFDL has been showing this to a certain extent over the last 3-4 runs. I think in the long run that ridge is gonig to re-build as the upper trough moves out of the way but the question is how much latitude will Dean gain before it re-builds. The GFDL has been generally taking it upto about 15N before flattening it to just north of west.
I think the general set-up is going to be like forecasted but the whole track will have to be adjusted northwards. Thats what i think anyway!

I think you are correct. If you look at the 12Z GFDL it shows Dean at 13 N by 18Z. GFDL continues WNW until the storm hits around 15N and then it flattens out to due west and sometimes south of west. This happens in around 36 hours.

[HURAKAN]

As good as ever!!

[jrod]

I guarantee most of the models will shift to the right(further north) on their next run based on the WNW path Dean is on now. Like i've said a few times on here and so have many others, wait for the gulfstream to do it's sampling and feed that data to the models before putting too much faith in the models. The islands are obviously the immediate concern and the US has most if not all of next week to prepare for a potential hit. Plenty of time for this system to evolve and it is still way too early to make calls on a possible conUS landfall.

[miamicanes177]

Code: Select all

651
WHXX01 KWBC 151835
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1835 UTC WED AUG 15 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEAN (AL042007) 20070815 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        070815  1800   070816  0600   070816  1800   070817  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.8N  47.0W   13.9N  51.9W   15.2N  57.2W   15.9N  62.3W
BAMD    12.8N  47.0W   13.7N  50.6W   14.7N  54.0W   15.5N  57.0W
BAMM    12.8N  47.0W   13.6N  51.7W   14.5N  56.3W   14.9N  60.5W
LBAR    12.8N  47.0W   13.5N  50.8W   14.3N  54.9W   14.8N  59.1W
SHIP        55KTS          62KTS          68KTS          76KTS
DSHP        55KTS          62KTS          68KTS          76KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        070817  1800   070818  1800   070819  1800   070820  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.4N  66.9W   16.1N  75.3W   15.6N  81.3W   15.4N  85.3W
BAMD    16.2N  59.9W   17.9N  65.7W   19.5N  72.3W   21.6N  79.9W
BAMM    15.2N  64.5W   15.6N  71.8W   16.0N  78.6W   16.8N  84.6W
LBAR    15.1N  63.2W   15.7N  70.1W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        84KTS          92KTS          97KTS         103KTS
DSHP        84KTS          92KTS          97KTS          98KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.8N LONCUR =  47.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  19KT
LATM12 =  12.1N LONM12 =  43.4W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 =  18KT
LATM24 =  11.8N LONM24 =  40.1W
WNDCUR =   55KT RMAXWD =   20NM WNDM12 =   45KT
CENPRS =  994MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  140NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =   60NM RD34SE =   45NM RD34SW =   30NM RD34NW =  45NM
 
$$
NNNN


[ronjon]

Interesting NOGAPs run - takes it into western Cuba. It obviously doesn't show the intensity of what the storm is likely to be but yet it still has a more northern track compared to the rest of the globals.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.cgi?time=2007081512&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Steve]

>>I think you are correct. If you look at the 12Z GFDL it shows Dean at 13 N by 18Z.

It is 18z, it's actually 18:38

Steve

[Canelaw99]

I guarantee most of the models will shift to the right(further north) on their next run based on the WNW path Dean is on now. Like i've said a few times on here and so have many others, wait for the gulfstream to do it's sampling and feed that data to the models before putting too much faith in the models. The islands are obviously the immediate concern and the US has most if not all of next week to prepare for a potential hit. Plenty of time for this system to evolve and it is still way too early to make calls on a possible conUS landfall.

I totally agree with you on this. I, for one, haven't put much faith in any of these runs because there's no hardcore data in there. I will feel much better relying on the runs after the planes have had a chance to get in the area and check it out. However, I wish more people would understand that, because there will be many who see that the NHC track shifted way south over the last 24 hrs., and they'll think they're in the clear, while that may not be the case. All of us in the southern part of the US should keep an eye on the storm, but not get too anxious/antzy/worried/etc. until the models have real data. In the meantime, the Islanders should be prepping, and we wish them all the best.

[SWFLA_CANE]

>>I think you are correct. If you look at the 12Z GFDL it shows Dean at 13 N by 18Z.

It is 18z, it's actually 18:38

Steve

I knew that...I was just giving a time reference and showing that DEAN is close to GFDL's points from earlier (12Z).

[Derek Ortt]

noticing a slight dry air intrusion just south of the center and it is quickly warming the cloud top temps. I suspect that this will stall the intensifiction trend from this morning for about 6-12 hours, before it resumes in ernest overnight tonight

[jasons2k]

I don't want to incite any "state" wars, but this is the lastest email from Jeff, a pro-met who occasionally posts in the analysis forum:

Dean:

Dean starting to intensify over the Atlantic. Satellite estimates show Dean is now a 60mph TS and will likely be a hurricane within the next 24 hours as it continues to race westward.

Track guidance this morning suggest a faster and deeper westward track through Day 5 of a potentially very dangerous hurricane. Latest NHC forecast as Dean as a major hurricane over Jamaica early Monday morning. Most guidance is then clustered on a general WNW to NW track into the Gulf of Mexico as a major hurricane. NHC has planned a high altitude sampling mission ahead of Dean which should help calm down the model flip flopping of late.

Intensity is fairy easy as all conditions seem favorable for intensification…some rapid. Expect we could see a cat 2/3 before the Windward Islands and then cat 4 through the Caribbean Sea.

Based on the latest NHC forecast track a very dangerous hurricane may be approaching or entering the Gulf of Mexico early next week.

Based on the latest NHC advisory package adverse conditions from Dean could arrive on the TX coast 120 hour out from 900am Monday (middle to end of next week). The state EOC will start the 120 hour count down to the arrival of adverse conditions at 900 am Monday morning. This will begin activation of the state fuel dispersion plan to coastal evacuation areas Monday. TXDOT will also be sweeping contraflow/evac routes Monday to check for road hazards should a mass evacuation be called for.

Residents along the TX coast should review hurricane preparation procedures and be prepared to enact these plans and procedures next week if needed.

[windstorm99]

Its about to get to 13n which if iam correct was not suppose to happen till morning tommorow.

[Beach0612]

That last NOGAPS run is a little too close for comfort

[OURAGAN]

It's already near 13N

[Brent]

Interesting NOGAPs run - takes it into western Cuba. It obviously doesn't show the intensity of what the storm is likely to be but yet it still has a more northern track compared to the rest of the globals.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.cgi?time=2007081512&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

The NOGAPS is finally developing it, eh?

[Wx_Warrior]

I'll remember those exact words from Jeff.....