CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Bgator]

WHen the next GFS come out?

[Aquawind]

I'm thinking a new track here yall, Looping images over 24 hours show almost a sudden right turn in the last couple of hours. How long do "wobbles" usually last? This long?

If it is a real turn, you likely won't see a large track adjustment at 5PM. HOWEVER, they will mention it, and if it continues..it is possible to see a change later tonight or tomorrow morning.

Yep.. no possible large adjustments unless it continues of track after the next advisory..even then they will simply read the data they have.

[BUD]

Definite information over load. Something is just not right, this WNW movement now with the strong ridge aloft with an almost due west projected track across the Caribbean. I'll bet this extreme model flop is not over.

Yep, all models are on crack right now.Wait until we get the info from the Gulf stream jet.

[robbielyn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html If you look at this wide screen view of the atlantic, what looks like a northerly jog is just an expansion of the convection, the storm is growing. It's still wnw.

[storms in NC]

NHC will not change map tracks they take it over a avg and go by that. I think it is a 24 hour avg I can't remember.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM AST WED AUG 15 2007

...DEAN INTENSIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST OR ABOUT 910
MILES...1465 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR...
AND A MOTION BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DEAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...13.1 N...47.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[jhamps10]

New advisory out.

[Comanche]

from a local guru, (Jeff Lindner). I track his forecast and he is very accurate.

"Very worrying model guidance out from 12Z showing remains of Erin becoming a weakness in the sub-tropical ridge over TX. Dean comes roaring through the Caribbean and break in sub-tropical high over TX allows the start of a poleward turn in the Gulf of Mexico. No need to sound any alarms just yet as we are still talking over 7 days out, however this hurricane is going to come very quickly and likely to be very strong by late this weekend. Guidance and NHC continue to indicate the potential for a very dangerous hurricane to be aimed at the SE Gulf of Mexico early next week. "

[windstorm99]

.

[jhamps10]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM AST WED AUG 15 2007

...DEAN INTENSIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST OR ABOUT 910
MILES...1465 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR...
AND A MOTION BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DEAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...13.1 N...47.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[SouthFloridawx]

[list=]AL, 04, 2007081318, , BEST, 0, 120N, 324W, 30, 1005, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 40, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOUR, D,
AL, 04, 2007081400, , BEST, 0, 120N, 342W, 30, 1005, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 40, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOUR, D,
AL, 04, 2007081406, , BEST, 0, 118N, 365W, 30, 1005, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 40, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOUR, D,
AL, 04, 2007081412, , BEST, 0, 118N, 386W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1010, 180, 40, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOUR, D,
AL, 04, 2007081418, , BEST, 0, 118N, 401W, 40, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 45, 30, 0, 45, 1010, 180, 30, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DEAN, D,
AL, 04, 2007081500, , BEST, 0, 119N, 415W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 45, 45, 30, 45, 1010, 180, 30, 55, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DEAN, D,
AL, 04, 2007081506, , BEST, 0, 121N, 434W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 45, 45, 30, 45, 1010, 180, 30, 55, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DEAN, D,
AL, 04, 2007081512, , BEST, 0, 123N, 451W, 50, 997, TS, 34, NEQ, 45, 45, 30, 45, 1012, 180, 20, 60, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DEAN, D,
AL, 04, 2007081512, , BEST, 0, 123N, 451W, 50, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1012, 180, 20, 60, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DEAN, D,
AL, 04, 2007081518, , BEST, 0, 128N, 470W, 55, 994, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 45, 30, 45, 1011, 140, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DEAN, D,
AL, 04, 2007081518, , BEST, 0, 128N, 470W, 55, 994, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1011, 140, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DEAN, D, [/list]

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Turn on latlon and forecast track then stare at the bump which may be the center. Yea, the northern field has expanded but that bump is moving WNW and will be across 13 by 48. Not a great distance off the forecast track but if the direction continues it's going to go a lot further north than currently forecast.

And yes, my slant is to wish cast a fish, so my observations may be tainted.

[ALhurricane]

Everybody needs to take a deep breath, step back, take a look at the synoptic pattern, and realize that there is no major crisis in the forecast.

[Evil Jeremy]

FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DEAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

[EyELeSs1]

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST OR ABOUT 910
MILES...1465 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR...
AND A MOTION BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

not good news @ all!!!!!

[MWatkins]

If anything...they will adjust the track southward slightly. This WNW motion is probably not going to continue.

MW

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

DEAN CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS
HAVE WARMED RECENTLY...THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES
INDICATE A TIGHTLY CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. AMSU AND
TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE ALSO SUGGESTED THE FORMATION OF A
PARTIAL EYEWALL. MOST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE INCREASING...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS RAISED TO
55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SHIFTED MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE
PAST SIX HOURS...AROUND 285/19. THIS MOVEMENT TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AS DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING TO
THE NORTH OF DEAN STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT...FORCING THE STORM ON MORE
OF A WESTWARD COURSE TOMORROW. THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT
ANY INTERACTION WITH A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
BAHAMAS WILL BE LIMITED AS THAT FEATURE IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE
WESTWARD AS AN INVERTED TROUGH WELL AHEAD OF DEAN. NUMERICAL TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...SHOWING THE
STORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ABOUT 5
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH DURING
THE FIRST 36 HOURS...BUT IS MUCH FASTER AND TO THE WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE NUMERICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

BASED ON WHAT WE THINK WE KNOW ABOUT INTENSITY CHANGE...THERE DO NOT
SEEM TO BE TOO MANY INHIBITING FACTORS TO A FUTURE INTENSIFICATION
OF DEAN. GLOBAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE AS THE SYSTEM TRAVELS
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN COMBINATION WITH VERY DEEP WARM
WATERS...THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POWERFUL
HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF
THE SHIPS...GFDL...HWRF...AND LGEM MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 13.1N 47.9W 55 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 13.5N 50.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 14.1N 54.7W 70 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 14.6N 58.6W 75 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 15.1N 62.3W 85 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 16.0N 69.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 19/1800Z 17.0N 76.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 20/1800Z 18.5N 83.0W 115 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[windstorm99]

[Brent]

120HR VT 20/1800Z 18.5N 83.0W 115 KT

Cat 4 predicted, track faster but otherwise the same it appears.

[SouthFloridawx]

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST OR ABOUT 910
MILES...1465 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR...
AND A MOTION BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

not good news @ all!!!!!

Faster and farther north and the last forecast, definitely.

This faster speed is going to have an effect on the forecast, whether it wants to be believed or not.

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 46.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 45.1W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 12.7N 48.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.