Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[BobHarlem]

What's the deal with the ridiculously cold cloud tops? Most all the satellite enhanced views are peaking out somewhere near the middle of the convection. Yet the center is exposed, and shear is really high northwest of it.

For me this makes Noel one of the weirdest systems I've ever looked at, if not the weirdest.

[Patrick99]

Is it just me, or does shear seem to be lowering over this? Does it seem much of a stretch that this will soon be upgraded to a hurricane? I see a lot of deep reds on the infrared loop; very impressive.

[CDO]

From Miami AFD 9:30 PM

"WILL ALSO LIKELY BE UPGRADING GALE WARNING/TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AMZ650-651-670-671...BUT WILL AWAIT
INGESTION OF 01/03Z NHC ADVISORY WIND GRIDS BEFORE MAKING THE
FINAL DECISION ON THIS."

['CaneFreak]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Tell me if I'm looking at this wrong or not. I read posts that say that the LLC is chasing after the convection. It looks to me as if the convection is expending westward through that "brick wall" some wrote about and covering the LLC. I do not see the LLC chashing after it but the reverse. I think the wind field will be expending westward out to the 175 mile like it was earlier before the Cuba connection and more to the west than before especiall if this storm is a cat 1 by 5am.

Could I be wrong?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Also, here is another view from the Gulf of Mexico. Seems to me like the old front in Northern Florida is dying, what ever was advancing from the plains has stopped advancing and now a west to east flow has resumed across the southern part of the country.
I really do not see the ridge falling apart but holding strong and may be pulling Noel on a more WNW jog over time. Don't forget, a 50-100 mile jog to the west before that recurve we all been hearing about will bring Tropical Storm condictions across S Florida. Can we chance "not" being in a Tropical Storm Warning especially if Noel grows to a Cat 1 and the windfind field expends?

Then again, maybe I don't know what I'm talking about because I'm still learning.

No problem or anything, but you are incorrect in your thinking. I am here to correct you so you and others can learn. Ridges erode away when they are being forced by an incoming trough. This is why the NHC has said in every discussion that the Mid Atlantic Ridge was eroding away slowly but surely on every single discussion. This is why the storm WILL move NE and there is nothing there to stop it from going NE. NOTHING. Winds in S FL are on a downward trend because the PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE is working AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE. THAT IS THE ONLY REASON THE WINDS ARE DECREASING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE IS THE ONLY REASON FOR THE STRONG WINDS TODAY. Now, the cyclone is moving in a N and NE trajectory, AWAY FROM FL. Therefore, the pressure gradient is moving AWAY from FL. I hope this helps.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 010207
AF304 1016A NOEL HDOB 18 20071101
015530 2315N 07916W 8422 01487 9991 +172 +172 035032 034 026 010 00
015600 2314N 07915W 8420 01488 9989 +174 +174 030031 032 023 010 00
015630 2313N 07914W 8420 01488 9990 +174 +174 032029 030 022 010 00
015700 2312N 07912W 8422 01487 9990 +173 +173 032027 028 024 010 00
015730 2311N 07911W 8419 01489 9989 +173 +172 032024 025 021 010 00
015800 2310N 07909W 8420 01487 9988 +175 +174 035022 023 020 009 00
015830 2309N 07908W 8419 01489 9989 +174 +174 033019 020 018 010 00
015900 2309N 07906W 8420 01487 9988 +171 +171 036019 019 018 010 00
015930 2308N 07905W 8422 01486 9988 +172 +172 037018 018 015 009 00
020000 2307N 07903W 8420 01486 9983 +179 +178 031016 017 012 010 00
020030 2306N 07902W 8420 01487 9982 +179 +178 027013 014 010 009 00
020100 2305N 07900W 8421 01484 9984 +177 +177 034012 013 009 009 00
020130 2304N 07859W 8420 01486 9983 +176 +176 032012 012 006 009 00
020200 2303N 07857W 8422 01484 9983 +177 +177 031011 012 004 009 00
020230 2302N 07856W 8419 01486 9982 +179 +179 026012 012 001 009 00
020300 2301N 07854W 8419 01484 9981 +179 +179 020010 012 000 009 00
020330 2301N 07853W 8422 01482 9975 +183 +183 008009 009 007 022 03
020400 2300N 07851W 8420 01482 9974 +185 +183 357009 010 021 054 03
020430 2300N 07849W 8422 01480 9973 +188 +183 352009 009 000 009 00
020500 2300N 07847W 8420 01482 9971 +190 +180 354010 010 030 047 03
$$
;

Pressure 997mb, and still falling...

['CaneFreak]

From Miami AFD 9:30 PM

"WILL ALSO LIKELY BE UPGRADING GALE WARNING/TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AMZ650-651-670-671...BUT WILL AWAIT
INGESTION OF 01/03Z NHC ADVISORY WIND GRIDS BEFORE MAKING THE
FINAL DECISION ON THIS."

In my humble opinion, you will not be upgrading those watches to warnings there fellows. Just a little note, winds are very slack on the western side of this cyclone and the cyclone is not making ANY progress towards FL any longer so FORGET ABOUT IT.

[destruction92]

What a CDO! Every color on every floater is there.

That's not a "Central Dense Overcast", though. It's detached from the center. Could see a center re-form under it tomorrow, maybe.

I notice the 00Z models have shifted east a bit, to the east side of Andros Island. May be the start of a trend.

East of Andros Island??? Being already well west of Andros Island's longitude, Noel would have to move EAST NORTHEAST.
I thought you don't rely that much on the 00Z models....but then again, anything showing an east bias I guess wins your vote.
Hey, at this point, I don't understand all the hype....Noel is clearly not a threat to Florida...its western half is dry and it is already moving NORTH according to the 8PM advisory...if tropical storm warnings get posted, I will really be surprised.

[boca]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

You can see on the water vapor it just about time for Noel to move NE the trough or shortwave is still digging south by the orange on this loop and pushing east as well. Noel will bomb but not here to affect Florida.

[MiamiensisWx]

From Miami AFD 9:30 PM

"WILL ALSO LIKELY BE UPGRADING GALE WARNING/TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AMZ650-651-670-671...BUT WILL AWAIT
INGESTION OF 01/03Z NHC ADVISORY WIND GRIDS BEFORE MAKING THE
FINAL DECISION ON THIS."

I think they are referring to the offshore coastal waters (~20-60+ miles off SE FL).

MZ = Marine Zone

Someone can correct me...

[Bgator]

From Miami AFD 9:30 PM

"WILL ALSO LIKELY BE UPGRADING GALE WARNING/TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AMZ650-651-670-671...BUT WILL AWAIT
INGESTION OF 01/03Z NHC ADVISORY WIND GRIDS BEFORE MAKING THE
FINAL DECISION ON THIS."

In my humble opinion, you will not be upgrading those watches to warnings there fellows. Just a little note, winds are very slack on the western side of this cyclone and the cyclone is not making ANY progress towards FL any longer so FORGET ABOUT IT.

The winds on the west side are expanding some, the rain isnt, but winds are, or they wouldnt say this. they are pro mets too, so they must have some logic to it. I still see a slow drift to the NNW or N. At least for now.

[deltadog03]

Based on SFC obs...looks like the LLC is moving under VERY deep convection

[destruction92]

From Miami AFD 9:30 PM

"WILL ALSO LIKELY BE UPGRADING GALE WARNING/TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AMZ650-651-670-671...BUT WILL AWAIT
INGESTION OF 01/03Z NHC ADVISORY WIND GRIDS BEFORE MAKING THE
FINAL DECISION ON THIS."

In my humble opinion, you will not be upgrading those watches to warnings there fellows. Just a little note, winds are very slack on the western side of this cyclone and the cyclone is not making ANY progress towards FL any longer so FORGET ABOUT IT.

Correction: After reading historical records, climatological norms, and knowing that Florida has like 4 times as much coastline as North Carolina, I can confidently affirm that Florida is the hurricane capital of the mainland U.S. and has more hurricanes than any other state, including North Carolina.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I know this ain't the model thread, but anyone ('specially professionals) think GFDL depiction of hurricane force winds on Eastern Cape Cod might verify from hybrid/post-tropical (I like the Canadian Hurricane centre's term better than extratropical) Noel?

[Windtalker2]

Based on SFC obs...looks like the LLC is moving under VERY deep convection

In moving only 3-4mph I think the convection is moving over the LLC not the other way around. The convection is expending to the west.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 010217
AF304 1016A NOEL HDOB 19 20071101
020530 2300N 07845W 8420 01481 9970 +193 +174 351009 010 030 047 03
020600 2301N 07844W 8422 01478 9966 +197 +179 349008 008 000 009 00
020630 2301N 07842W 8419 01482 9966 +197 +183 351007 008 000 009 03
020700 2300N 07840W 8413 01487 9968 +190 +185 349009 010 000 010 03
020730 2259N 07839W 8422 01477 9968 +190 +184 352011 011 000 010 00
020800 2258N 07837W 8420 01481 9968 +191 +184 358012 013 000 009 00
020830 2257N 07836W 8420 01478 9966 +194 +182 349014 015 000 009 00
020900 2256N 07834W 8420 01480 9965 +196 +182 344014 015 001 009 00
020930 2255N 07833W 8420 01480 9963 +200 +181 340013 015 000 009 00
021000 2254N 07831W 8420 01480 9967 +195 +186 316011 012 006 009 00
021030 2253N 07829W 8420 01478 9965 +195 +187 319014 014 007 009 00
021100 2252N 07828W 8423 01476 9963 +198 +187 300013 015 004 009 00
021130 2251N 07826W 8424 01475 9965 +195 +191 286016 017 010 009 00
021200 2250N 07825W 8420 01478 9965 +191 +191 276019 020 008 009 00
021230 2249N 07823W 8418 01481 9963 +197 +188 264021 021 006 009 00
021300 2248N 07822W 8423 01475 9968 +190 +190 251024 026 011 010 00
021330 2247N 07820W 8419 01482 9971 +186 +186 245026 026 025 009 00
021400 2246N 07818W 8422 01481 9973 +186 +186 241028 029 029 009 00
021430 2245N 07817W 8418 01484 9974 +185 +185 236028 028 030 009 00
021500 2244N 07815W 8420 01482 9975 +185 +185 230033 034 028 010 00
$$
;

Large center with 996mb pressure.

[deltadog03]

That might be..wxman....question since I see you on here.....How much do you think this could ramp up? I think the biggest thing helping (besides warm water) is the much improved outflow on the west quad...agree?

[cycloneye]

The lowest pressure at the pass thru center was 996 mbs.VDM shortly.

[MiamiensisWx]

Outflow and inflow is becoming RESTRICTED on the western quadrant.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[Bgator]

Anyone have a map of where and what the winds are where the plane is flying.

['CaneFreak]

Based on SFC obs...looks like the LLC is moving under VERY deep convection

In moving only 3-4mph I think the convection is moving over the LLC not the other way around. The convection is expending to the west.

THE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPANDING WESTWARD. IT IS A MIRAGE OF THE SATELLITE image. Trust me. The convection does not move over the LLC. That is also a myth. It is the other way around. The LLC positions itself under the convection and it is not doing that tonight yet. Also, pressures from the FL coast are all now steady or even slightly rising now which shoots down the windfield expanding west theorists out there. WIND IS A FUNCTION OF PRESSURE GRADIENT, not ANYTHING ELSE. Look it up in the meteorological dictionary. If it werent for pressure change, there would be no wind PERIOD.