CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[jhamps10]

DEAN CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS
HAVE WARMED RECENTLY...THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES
INDICATE A TIGHTLY CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. AMSU AND
TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE ALSO SUGGESTED THE FORMATION OF A
PARTIAL EYEWALL. MOST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE INCREASING...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS RAISED TO
55 KT.

[Normandy]

Everybody needs to take a deep breath, step back, take a look at the synoptic pattern, and realize that there is no major crisis in the forecast.

Amen.
I don't see why people are calling others wish-casters because they are only stating fact.

[shortwave]

"EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY"

At this point without the noaa jet to collect data, it should be taken into consideration, the lack of available and needed data to accurately project the storm. perhaps in the future there will be a better sampling net for storms and their surrounding envirenments.

[ALhurricane]

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST OR ABOUT 910
MILES...1465 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR...
AND A MOTION BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

not good news @ all!!!!!

Faster and farther north and the last forecast, definitely.

This faster speed is going to have an effect on the forecast, whether it wants to be believed or not.

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 46.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 45.1W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 12.7N 48.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

Synoptic meteorology should tell you that this WNW is temporary and a west motion will resume.

[hial2]

If anything...they will adjust the track southward slightly. This WNW motion is probably not going to continue.

MW

Mr Watkins,why? What caused it and why won't it continue? Thank you..trying to learn..

[JtSmarts]

I hope the areas affected by Wilma and Emily don't get hit by another monster, looking at that forecast.

[deltadog03]

I was just looking at the steering currents and that trof/weakness is not too far from dean. Its not very close by anymeans, but something to think about for sure!

[storms in NC]

IMO I think it will stay going WNW few the rest of the day. Did you see they didn't put what degs it was going.

[cycloneye]

[MSRobi911]

Even though we talk about the US and write a lot about it, we all pray for the safety of the people on all of the islands. I even stated this in Chat last night and was told that some thought we didn't care about them, but WE DO!!!

My prayers are certainly with you and hope that Dean stays south of ya'll enough to protect you all!

Mary

[Normandy]

To go further into what ALHurricane was saying:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024l.gif

There is just no way it can go anywhere but on a Westward to slightly WNW track.....hard sound data just does not suggest a track of that nature. There is a ridge RIGHT on top of it.

[MWatkins]

If anything...they will adjust the track southward slightly. This WNW motion is probably not going to continue.

MW

Mr Watkins,why? What caused it and why won't it continue? Thank you..trying to learn..

Huge ridge is going to build in starting tomorrow...next chance at poleward movement after that will be around Saturday when the next trough makes it's closest approach to Dean.

I mentioned in the analysis forum I think for the next trough to have any chance at all to pick up Dean...Dean will need to be up near 17 or 18 north by Saturday...

MW

[Steve]

Alot of Texans are getting worried (seeing Jeff's e-mails here and in my own inbox in Louisiana). Apparently a setup from June (floods in SE TX) could be repeated if Erin punches a hole and leaves a weakness. Bastardi on his video also mentioned Erin setting the table for trouble if Dean was to follow (lots of rain there this year). No call from me regardlessly on Dean's future path. He further noted that he thought the next storm to come off Africa in this pattern pulse would be a little further north which makes sense.

Steve

[Steve]

>>Did you see they didn't put what degs it was going.

Yeah, usually that's in the Discussion. I haven't read that yet or seen it posted.

*edit* Nevermind 285/19
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2036.shtml

Steve

[kozzieman]

I received an email newsletter which was forwarded to me by someone who lives along the MS Gulf Coast and the newsletter briefly mentioned the tropical system heading towards Texas. The email also said it's time to check and make sure you have your hurricane supplies ready should a storm come our way. The newsletter also said that we should all be prepared because another tropical storm will be entering the "Gulf" later this week. The newsletter came from the City Of Biloxi. I wonder where they're getting their information from.

[storms in NC]

Okay they did here

WTNT44 KNHC 152036
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

DEAN CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS
HAVE WARMED RECENTLY...THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES
INDICATE A TIGHTLY CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. AMSU AND
TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE ALSO SUGGESTED THE FORMATION OF A
PARTIAL EYEWALL. MOST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE INCREASING...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS RAISED TO
55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SHIFTED MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE
PAST SIX HOURS...AROUND 285/19. THIS MOVEMENT TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AS DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING TO
THE NORTH OF DEAN STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT...FORCING THE STORM ON MORE
OF A WESTWARD COURSE TOMORROW. THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT
ANY INTERACTION WITH A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
BAHAMAS WILL BE LIMITED AS THAT FEATURE IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE
WESTWARD AS AN INVERTED TROUGH WELL AHEAD OF DEAN. NUMERICAL TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...SHOWING THE
STORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ABOUT 5
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH DURING
THE FIRST 36 HOURS...BUT IS MUCH FASTER AND TO THE WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE NUMERICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

BASED ON WHAT WE THINK WE KNOW ABOUT INTENSITY CHANGE...THERE DO NOT
SEEM TO BE TOO MANY INHIBITING FACTORS TO A FUTURE INTENSIFICATION
OF DEAN. GLOBAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE AS THE SYSTEM TRAVELS
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN COMBINATION WITH VERY DEEP WARM
WATERS...THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POWERFUL
HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF
THE SHIPS...GFDL...HWRF...AND LGEM MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/2100Z 13.1N 47.9W 55 KT
12HR VT 16/0600Z 13.5N 50.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 16/1800Z 14.1N 54.7W 70 KT
36HR VT 17/0600Z 14.6N 58.6W 75 KT
48HR VT 17/1800Z 15.1N 62.3W 85 KT
72HR VT 18/1800Z 16.0N 69.5W 95 KT
96HR VT 19/1800Z 17.0N 76.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 20/1800Z 18.5N 83.0W 115 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[KWT]

Synoptic meteorology should tell you that this WNW is temporary and a west motion will resume.

The same way Katrina was not going to move WSW for about 30hrs longer then expected?
Simple fact is your right though, its not going to last probably that long but given 285 motion and the fact its been to the north of every single NHC forecast for the last 36hrs now does at least make you wonder whether or not its going to be a touch further north then expected. Also the 285 track does make a fairly major difference to the Lesser Antilles.

I think your right though the synoptic set-up favors nothing more then a possible S.Texas landfall,which IMO is most likely given the track and the likelyhood of the models slightly overoding the high tothe north as they so often do at such ranges.

Worth noting if it takes the NHC track, we are looking at a good chance of cat-5...just think how many have beocme cat-5's in the W.Caribbean, its probably the best place for such development, the only thing that may limit it is its foward speed.

[jasons2k]

One thing to remember folks is that the sampling done by the NOAA jet will only help for so far out. It will definitely help the models initialize better and help tell us where Dean will go for the next 48, 72, or 96 hours. But it won't tell us what the environment will be like next week. Flying the jet tomorrow will NOT tell us if Dean's going to make a run for Nicaragua, Belize, Mexico, Texas, or whereever.

In this case I don't believe NOAA jet sampling will do much good until at least few more days. The forecast for the next few days is pretty straightforward. We'll see some slight shifts to the left/right but nothing major. The big questions come early next week - what happens to the Atlantic Ridge, is the 500mb ridge being depicted on the latest EURO over Texas for real, etc.?? I believe this later timeframe is when we will need to rely more on the jet's data to see where Dean will end-up.

Yes, the flight tomorrow will help, but let's not get overly excited that it's going to solve all of our forecasting problems with Dean.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Based on the building ridge, for now, Dean should
stay well south of Florida, and be a Yucatan system
that may enter the Bay of Campeche. Dean seems
very similar to Emily.

Of course a lot can change so everyone watch.

[HURAKAN]

Latest and probably, last visible!!