CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[swimaway19]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
That should have it.

[Cape Verde]

The only reassurance I get out of that is that the models are rarely good long term.

Still, some of these systems seem to self-destruct for unforseen reasons. We shall see.

[CrazyC83]

It appears imminent we will have Hurricane Dean. My thinking is Category 4 by the islands...perhaps up to 130 kt, then weakening with land interaction.

[SouthFloridawx]

Ok you guys might get mad at me, but I don't care.

Dean is currently moving @ 22 MPH and looking at the waver vapor loop, the trough off the East Coast is about to get another shot of energy. It's dug down pretty far and it doesn't look like its going anywhere, anytime soon. I know you think I'm not right, but if you live in Florida or the GOM, I really wouldn't put my guard down.


http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html

Just look at the water vapor loop and you'll see what I'm talking about.

[wzrgirl1]

what's up with that nogaps model.....what does it see that the others don't

[CronkPSU]

what's up with that nogaps model.....what does it see that the others don't

it's from 8AM this morning

[SWFLA_CANE]

Ok you guys might get mad at me, but I don't care.

Dean is currently moving @ 22 MPH and looking at the waver vapor loop, the trough off the East Coast is about to get another shot of energy. It's dug down pretty far and it doesn't look like its going anywhere, anytime soon. I know you think I'm not right, but if you live in Florida or the GOM, I really wouldn't put my guard down.


http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html

Just look at the water vapor loop and you'll see what I'm talking about.

The main thing I see is a lot of dry air. If the air doesn't moisten up the storm will have a hard time.

['CaneFreak]

Ok you guys might get mad at me, but I don't care.

Dean is currently moving @ 22 MPH and looking at the waver vapor loop, the trough off the East Coast is about to get another shot of energy. It's dug down pretty far and it doesn't look like its going anywhere, anytime soon. I know you think I'm not right, but if you live in Florida or the GOM, I really wouldn't put my guard down.


http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html

Just look at the water vapor loop and you'll see what I'm talking about.

I agree....currently moving at 290 and 20 knots and that I believe is enough of a northerly component to possibly cause their to be enough of a weakness when this thing gets to Haiti/Jamaica to cause it to turn to the northwest...so EC and Florida...dont let your guard down yet...and personally...i think the data from the recon tomorrow will verify this...so STAY TUNED!!!!!

[Bgator]

I no longer think it is moving 285...It looks like the past hour or so it has gone back to 270..or due west.

['CaneFreak]

Ok you guys might get mad at me, but I don't care.

Dean is currently moving @ 22 MPH and looking at the waver vapor loop, the trough off the East Coast is about to get another shot of energy. It's dug down pretty far and it doesn't look like its going anywhere, anytime soon. I know you think I'm not right, but if you live in Florida or the GOM, I really wouldn't put my guard down.


http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html

Just look at the water vapor loop and you'll see what I'm talking about.

The main thing I see is a lot of dry air. If the air doesn't moisten up the storm will have a hard time.

This thing is making its own environment at this point so I would not be too concerned with dry air...it has nice inflow from the ITCZ right now in the SHORT TERM..in the long term though...you could be right...just before it gets to the islands...when it gets in the carribean..it will no longer be an issue IMHO...

[wzrgirl1]

what's up with that nogaps model.....what does it see that the others don't

it's from 8AM this morning

sure is....should have seen that thanks

['CaneFreak]

I no longer think it is moving 285...It looks like the past hour or so it has gone back to 270..or due west.

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... verlay=off

do this loop and you will beg to differ with yourself...

[hial2]

Ok you guys might get mad at me, but I don't care.

Dean is currently moving @ 22 MPH and looking at the waver vapor loop, the trough off the East Coast is about to get another shot of energy. It's dug down pretty far and it doesn't look like its going anywhere, anytime soon. I know you think I'm not right, but if you live in Florida or the GOM, I really wouldn't put my guard down.


http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html

Just look at the water vapor loop and you'll see what I'm talking about.

I was looking at the same thing..Isn't it supposed to move west ahead of Dean??..And also, in order for a hurricane to make his own environment has to be much stronger than Dean is right now

[Ed Mahmoud]

Anybody notice newest HWRF and GFDL weaken Dean to a minimal tropical storm in the Caribbean, and that is before they both hit Jamaica with it.


I wonder what both models are seeing that they want to weaken Dean so much.

[Derek Ortt]

dynamical models are not initialized with an artificial forward speed.

They merely solve the equations of the atmosphere and move the storm accordingly. Does not matter if the storm is moving north or west initially

[jrod]

With all that dry air I think it is unlikely it will be a hurricane for the next 24hrs. 270 is the heading I'd give it.

[wxwatcher91]

I figure based on the 18z models, in 24hrs, if it is north/east of 15/55, then a more WNW (rather than W) thereafter.

[Bgator]

Even looking at the loop, towards the end part of it it does look more like a westerly track..to my eye...I may be wrong.

['CaneFreak]

dynamical models are not initialized with an artificial forward speed.

They merely solve the equations of the atmosphere and move the storm accordingly. Does not matter if the storm is moving north or west initially

Good point

[Derek Ortt]

and 1008 is a very good initialization of a storm of this intensity by a global model

The GFS has its problems, but this initialization is not one of them