Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Thunder44]

The recon fixed a center over Andros Island, about 65 miles SSW of Nassau. It appears to be reforming or moving NNE now.

[HURAKAN]

Bahamas Radar:

[Evil Jeremy]

I would take down the SFL warnings and hurricane watches at 11AM.

[HURAKAN]

Looks pretty good this morning.

[Evil Jeremy]

Also, is it me, or does it look like Noel is going on another westward jog?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-vis.html

[HURAKAN]

Also, is it me, or does it look like Noel is going on another westward jog?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-vis.html

What you're seeing is the cloud mass expanding westward, not the center.

Close-ups are better:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-vis.html

[StormTracker]

Well, 5 down, 1 month to go and so far we've burned 14 letters(names)!!! Anyone think we'll see another SYSTEM develop before Nov. 31st? By the way I wonder who's on cue right now to win the contest of named storms/hurr & majors...ST

[Frank2]

New England and Canada really must monitor this. Even if it goes ET, it would still produce near hurricane force winds whereever it makes landfall

Yes, they seem to be at risk for certain, though they are so used to those 975 mb lows crossing their area at this time of year, that this wouldn't be much different for them...

[cycloneye]

Well, 5 down, 1 month to go and so far we've burned 14 letters(names)!!! Anyone think we'll see another SYSTEM develop before Nov. 31st? By the way I wonder who's on cue right now to win the contest of named storms/hurr & majors...ST

I will bring the poll back to Talking Tropics Forum on November 30th,and the wninner(s) will be known by then.

[cycloneye]

New England and Canada really must monitor this. Even if it goes ET, it would still produce near hurricane force winds whereever it makes landfall

Yes, they seem to be at risk for certain, though they are so used to those 975 mb lows crossing their area at this time of year, that this wouldn't be much different for them...

That is why they are issuing advisories on Noel.

[Frank2]

I'll just guess and say that this was the end of the season...

The troughs are quickly getting deeper and stronger, so, much less likely for anything else to form...

[StormTracker]

Also, is it me, or does it look like Noel is going on another westward jog?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-vis.html

Hey EJ!!! Give it up maan! We're not gettin' any!!! Now we'll have to deal with grass erosion for the next 6 mnths...

[StormTracker]

Well, 5 down, 1 month to go and so far we've burned 14 letters(names)!!! Anyone think we'll see another SYSTEM develop before Nov. 31st? By the way I wonder who's on cue right now to win the contest of named storms/hurr & majors...ST

I will bring the poll back to Talking Tropics Furum on November 30th,and the wninner(s) will be known by then.

Thanks CE!!! I was looking for it earlier but I couldn't find it. Now, back to NOEL...

[HURAKAN]

[storm4u]

New England and Canada really must monitor this. Even if it goes ET, it would still produce near hurricane force winds whereever it makes landfall

i really hope it doesnt come up this way thats all we would need up here

[Bgator]

I think they will discontinue the TS warnings soon. The storm is moving NNE now.

[storm4u]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _060.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _066.shtml


wow this is getting way to close for me now up here!!

[Evil Jeremy]

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 AM EDT THU NOV 01 2007

...NOEL TURNS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH NORTH OF
DEERFIELD BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO DEERFIELD BEACH. THIS
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 45
MILES... 70 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 175 MILES...280 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/HR...AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY AND SLOWLY INCREASING ITS
DISTANCE FROM THE FLORIDA COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES IN THE BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 18 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...24.5 N...77.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

NNNN

[HURAKAN]

834
WTNT31 KNHC 011447
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 AM EDT THU NOV 01 2007

...NOEL TURNS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH NORTH OF
DEERFIELD BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO DEERFIELD BEACH. THIS
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 45
MILES... 70 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 175 MILES...280 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FLORIDA.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/HR...AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY AND SLOWLY INCREASING ITS
DISTANCE FROM THE FLORIDA COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES IN THE BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 18 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...24.5 N...77.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

729
WTNT21 KNHC 011447
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1500 UTC THU NOV 01 2007

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH NORTH OF
DEERFIELD BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO DEERFIELD BEACH. THIS
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON.


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 77.8W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 100SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 77.8W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 78.1W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 25.8N 76.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 28.4N 74.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 30SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 32.0N 72.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 180SE 120SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 36.0N 69.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...120NE 150SE 0SW 180NW.
34 KT...360NE 420SE 180SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 46.0N 61.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT...420NE 300SE 300SW 120NW.
34 KT...480NE 480SE 420SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 56.5N 50.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 67.0N 25.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 77.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

000
WTNT41 KNHC 011500
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1100 AM EDT THU NOV 01 2007

DATA PHONED IN FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING NOEL INCLUDE PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT AND
SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 51 KT. THESE DATA SUPPORT THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT. THE CENTER FIXES HAVE BEEN BOUNCING
ABOUT IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS...BUT OVERALL INDICATE THAT
THE TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST HAS BEGUN. THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 020/8.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ADVANCING TOWARD NOEL FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NOEL
NORTHNORTHEASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
HEADING BUT LESS SO ON THE SPEED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS
A GFS/GFDL/HWRF BLEND.

WITH THE RECENT JUMP OF THE CENTER CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION...THERE
IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS...BEFORE THE WIND SHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVE. HOWEVER...
BAROCLINIC ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

AS NOEL IS EXPECTED TO EDGE AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON...IT SHOULD SOON BE POSSIBLE TO LOWER THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 24.5N 77.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 25.8N 76.9W 60 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 28.4N 74.9W 55 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 32.0N 72.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 03/1200Z 36.0N 69.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 04/1200Z 46.0N 61.0W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 05/1200Z 56.5N 50.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 06/1200Z 67.0N 25.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[gatorcane]

well folks Florida gets lucky again............