Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[CrazyC83]

Bahamas Radar:

Hurricane Noel at 5 pm?

[CrazyC83]

01/1745 UTC 24.8N 77.6W T3.5/3.5 NOEL -- Atlantic Ocean

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[CrazyC83]

With the improved structure, I'd say the current intensity is 60 kt and the pressure is 991mb.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[HURAKAN]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011949
AF306 1216A NOEL HDOB 01 20071101
193730 3025N 08855W 0158 00000 0147 +284 +147 360000 000 087 000 20
193800 3025N 08855W 0159 00000 0147 +279 +142 360000 000 087 000 20
193830 3025N 08855W 0159 00000 0147 +275 +142 360000 000 087 000 20
193900 3025N 08855W 0157 00000 0147 +277 +143 360000 000 087 000 20
193930 3025N 08855W 0157 00000 0146 +289 +144 360000 000 087 000 20
194000 3025N 08855W 0157 00000 0146 +293 +145 360000 000 087 000 20
194030 3025N 08855W 0157 00000 0146 +301 +145 360000 000 087 000 20
194100 3025N 08855W 0157 00000 0146 +312 +146 360000 000 087 000 20
194130 3025N 08855W 0159 00000 0147 +300 +145 360000 000 087 000 20
194200 3025N 08855W 0157 00000 0147 +292 +146 360000 000 087 000 20
194230 3025N 08855W 0158 00000 0147 +298 +147 360000 000 087 000 20
194300 3025N 08855W 0157 00000 0146 +299 +148 360000 000 087 000 20
194330 3025N 08855W 0157 00000 0146 +307 +149 360000 000 087 000 20
194400 3025N 08855W 0157 00000 0146 +306 +149 360000 000 087 000 20
194430 3025N 08855W 0157 00000 0146 +314 +148 360000 000 087 000 20
194500 3025N 08855W 0157 00000 0146 +313 +147 360000 000 087 000 20
194530 3025N 08855W 0157 00000 0146 +312 +146 360000 000 087 000 20
194600 3025N 08855W 0157 00000 0146 +313 +148 360000 000 087 000 20
194630 3025N 08855W 0157 00000 0146 +320 +150 360000 000 087 000 20
194700 3025N 08855W 0157 00000 0146 +324 +151 360000 000 087 000 20
$$
;

[Bgator]

Miami got very lucky this storm wasny sheared, and there was a trof...if it wasnt sheared convectionm would be to west as well...i hope the bahamas were ready for a cane.

[cycloneye]

000
URNT15 KNHC 012009
AF306 1216A NOEL HDOB 03 20071101
195730 3024N 08856W 0152 00000 0139 +291 +148 360000 000 999 999 23
195800 3024N 08856W 0148 00000 0138 +295 +146 360000 000 999 999 23
195830 3024N 08856W 0153 00000 0142 +254 +144 014006 009 087 000 23
195900 3025N 08855W 0027 00106 0146 +235 +132 016012 013 087 000 03
195930 3026N 08854W 9897 00216 0147 +222 +129 013012 013 999 999 03
200000 3028N 08853W 9800 00306 0151 +215 +132 018011 012 999 999 03
200030 3028N 08851W 9814 00291 0149 +215 +130 013011 012 999 999 03
200100 3026N 08850W 9816 00293 0151 +215 +131 014013 015 999 999 03
200130 3025N 08849W 9823 00286 0153 +215 +136 011012 014 999 999 03
200200 3023N 08848W 9819 00292 0157 +215 +137 004012 014 124 000 03
200230 3021N 08847W 9826 00291 0159 +216 +132 010012 013 032 000 00
200300 3020N 08846W 9666 00433 0157 +203 +127 011012 013 025 000 03
200330 3018N 08845W 9358 00710 0164 +177 +125 014012 013 013 000 03
200400 3016N 08845W 9252 00808 0165 +167 +121 006014 016 012 000 00
200430 3014N 08845W 9247 00813 0165 +166 +117 011014 015 112 004 00
200500 3012N 08845W 9248 00816 0172 +162 +121 009016 016 008 000 03
200530 3010N 08845W 8851 01184 0173 +136 +099 010015 016 999 999 03
200600 3008N 08845W 8573 01455 0166 +135 -021 008015 016 021 000 00
200630 3007N 08845W 8503 01527 0161 +141 -125 007016 017 020 000 00
200700 3004N 08845W 8497 01530 0157 +140 -143 004017 017 027 000 03

Plane is on route towards NOEL.

[BigA]

I would say that there is a fair chance that Noel's extratropical self could give a strong brush to southeastsern New England.and Maine Most of the models have trended somewhat west this morning, and the GFS and HWRF forecast hurricane force winds over Nantucket, while the NAM takes it quite close to Cape Cod as well.

[cpdaman]

what's going on 24.9 / 78.5 just west of andros does anyone see a swirling there

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html (HINT turn the speed up and look at the low clouds banding in the area mentioned above

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1 pressure dropping a bit faster now 29.59

something FISHY is going on!

[Bgator]

what's going on 24.9 / 78.5 just west of andros does anyone see a swirling there

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1 pressure dropping a bit faster now 29.59

something FISHY is going on!

Yeah it must be a little vortex just spinnin off...

[cpdaman]

that looks like a LLC it has banding around it, not like a litte eddy , ya know doesn't make sense. i will take a deep breath and just watch things for a while.

was down at lantana beach for high tide and there were some serious squalls coming thru not to mention 3 news crews, they are going to need to get a lot more sand for that beach, and hopefully the storm surf is gone.

[HURAKAN]

400
URNT15 KNHC 012029
AF306 1216A NOEL HDOB 05 20071101
201730 2925N 08843W 5022 05795 0254 -068 -319 286032 032 030 000 00
201800 2923N 08843W 4995 05841 0263 -072 -328 287033 033 028 000 00
201830 2921N 08843W 4977 05869 0264 -079 -327 288033 033 028 000 03
201900 2919N 08843W 4862 06055 0274 -091 -329 291034 034 029 000 03
201930 2917N 08843W 4785 06179 0284 -098 -327 289036 036 999 999 03
202000 2915N 08843W 4694 06327 0292 -110 -294 288034 035 999 999 03
202030 2913N 08843W 4626 06439 0298 -121 -290 286032 033 999 999 03
202100 2911N 08843W 4558 06553 0304 -131 -293 287032 032 027 000 03
202130 2909N 08843W 4500 06651 0307 -140 -293 288031 031 026 000 03
202200 2907N 08843W 4444 06741 0310 -148 -294 291032 033 031 000 03
202230 2905N 08843W 4392 06829 0313 -156 -295 293034 034 026 000 00
202300 2903N 08842W 4339 06921 0318 -162 -301 289037 037 027 000 03
202330 2901N 08842W 4280 07024 0323 -170 -306 287037 037 028 000 03
202400 2859N 08842W 4224 07124 0328 -179 -304 287036 036 028 000 00
202430 2857N 08842W 4178 07207 0333 -187 -304 288036 036 029 000 00
202500 2855N 08842W 4121 07309 0337 -196 -303 289036 036 029 000 03
202530 2853N 08842W 4075 07394 0342 -201 -301 290035 036 999 999 03
202600 2852N 08840W 4064 07416 0346 -205 -303 287035 036 999 999 03
202630 2851N 08838W 4031 07479 0353 -207 -307 282034 034 029 000 03
202700 2851N 08835W 3997 07541 0353 -210 -309 281036 036 030 000 00
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

069
WTNT21 KNHC 012033
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
2100 UTC THU NOV 01 2007

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 77.1W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 77.1W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 77.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 27.6N 75.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 30.7N 73.8W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 240SE 90SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 34.5N 71.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...180NE 0SE 0SW 180NW.
34 KT...300NE 360SE 180SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 39.0N 68.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT...240NE 240SE 180SW 180NW.
34 KT...420NE 420SE 240SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 50.5N 60.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...300NE 300SE 180SW 0NW.
34 KT...480NE 540SE 420SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 60.0N 52.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 77.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

200
WTNT31 KNHC 012033
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 PM EDT THU NOV 01 2007

...NOEL ACCELERATING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES... 65 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 205 MILES...330
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...BUT THEN STRENGTHEN AND INCREASE IN SIZE AS
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. INTERESTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM
NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD SHOULD CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THEIR
LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES IN THE BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 18 INCHES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN CUBA...WHERE THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR SO ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...25.5 N...77.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cpdaman]

also lake worth pier/bouy also falling http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1

it may be doing it's last little loop b4 getting out?

[Bgator]

My pressure has fallen 1mb throughout the day, but nothing big. The thing next to andros seems to be moving NE too now anyway.

[tolakram]

Derek,

in relation to your post in the other thread, I've noticed on the shear maps that shear is subsiding north of the storm. I'm not thinking intensification but rather that Noel will maintain TS or minor hurricane status further north than predicted. Is this related to what you are saying?

mid level shear map:

[fci]

29.59 at Lake Worth for the past 2 hours.(since 2:39 PM). Latest reading is at 4:48

Observed at: Florida Gardens, Lake Worth, Florida
Humidity: 61%
Dew Point: 66 °F / 19 °C
Wind: 8.0 mph / 12.9 km/h / 3.6 m/s from the NNE
Wind Gust: 15.4 mph / 24.8 km/h
Pressure: 29.59 in / 1001.9 hPa (Falling)

Actually readings at personal stations in area are all low:
Suburban Lake Worth-Lantana-29.63
Wellington- 29.61
W. Boynton Beach-29.64
Boynton Beach-29.61

[JonathanBelles]

A Few Clouds and Breezy
81°F
(27°C)
Humidity: 67 %
Wind Speed: N 21 G 26 MPH
Barometer: 29.76" (1007.6 mb)
Dewpoint: 69°F (21°C)
Heat Index: 84°F (29°C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.

Lowest pressure so far, winds back up.