Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[HURAKAN]

796
URNT15 KNHC 012059
AF306 1216A NOEL HDOB 08 20071101
204730 2817N 08635W 3926 07675 0360 -210 -474 294028 029 020 000 00
204800 2816N 08632W 3926 07677 0361 -210 -472 294028 028 019 000 00
204830 2815N 08629W 3924 07678 0362 -210 -471 294027 027 021 000 00
204900 2814N 08626W 3926 07677 0362 -210 -471 295027 027 022 000 00
204930 2813N 08623W 3926 07678 0362 -210 -471 296026 026 020 000 00
205000 2812N 08620W 3926 07677 0362 -210 -470 297026 027 014 000 00
205030 2812N 08617W 3926 07677 0362 -210 -471 298026 026 018 000 00
205100 2811N 08614W 3926 07677 0362 -210 -470 298025 026 016 000 00
205130 2810N 08611W 3926 07679 0363 -210 -470 300026 026 015 000 00
205200 2809N 08608W 3926 07677 0362 -210 -470 301026 026 014 000 00
205230 2808N 08605W 3926 07677 0362 -210 -470 302026 026 015 000 00
205300 2807N 08603W 3926 07676 0363 -210 -471 302026 026 012 000 00
205330 2806N 08600W 3928 07678 0368 -210 -470 302026 026 015 000 00
205400 2805N 08557W 3928 07679 0368 -213 -470 301026 026 017 000 00
205430 2805N 08554W 3926 07677 0364 -211 -472 301025 025 015 000 00
205500 2804N 08551W 3926 07678 0362 -210 -472 302024 025 018 000 00
205530 2803N 08548W 3926 07678 0362 -210 -471 301023 024 019 000 00
205600 2802N 08545W 3926 07678 0363 -210 -469 302023 023 016 000 00
205630 2801N 08542W 3926 07680 0365 -210 -468 301022 022 014 000 00
205700 2800N 08540W 3926 07682 0366 -210 -468 304021 022 015 000 00
$$

[Brent]

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...BUT THEN STRENGTHEN AND INCREASE IN SIZE AS
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. INTERESTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM
NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD SHOULD CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THEIR
LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE.

NOEL IS ACCELERATING IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/12. A SECOND
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CYCLONE AND CUT OFF
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN 36 HOURS. THIS FORECAST PATTERN
RESULTS IN A TRACK FOR NOEL A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE U.S. EAST
COAST...AND WITH THE FORECAST EXPANSION OF THE WIND RADII...IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL WIND EVENT FROM
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS NORTHWARD. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS
FROM YOUR NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL TO THE
RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ADDITIONAL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY
BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.

[cpdaman]

perhaps that was the remnant llC before the reformation last nite around 11pm, i just don't understand how the low pressures would decide to drop again early this afternoon, either way it looks like it is kicking out of there in the latest frame as well

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Looks like my area of SW NB/SE Maine could get nailed. I can't remember a hurricane related storm directly affecting the region this late in the year; meaning the center actually making landfall and not staying out to sea south of Nova Scotia. Could get nasty.

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 012119
AF306 1216A NOEL HDOB 10 20071101
210730 2747N 08439W 3926 07678 0363 -210 -469 319019 019 023 000 00
210800 2746N 08436W 3926 07679 0363 -210 -468 318019 020 024 000 00
210830 2746N 08433W 3926 07678 0363 -210 -467 321019 020 022 000 00
210900 2745N 08430W 3927 07678 0364 -207 -461 324019 019 013 001 00
210930 2745N 08428W 3926 07677 0362 -205 -454 327019 019 015 000 00
211000 2744N 08425W 3924 07678 0361 -205 -453 328019 019 017 000 00
211030 2744N 08422W 3927 07674 0361 -205 -455 330018 019 015 000 00
211100 2743N 08419W 3924 07680 0362 -205 -455 330019 019 016 000 00
211130 2743N 08417W 3927 07674 0362 -205 -453 328019 020 017 000 00
211200 2742N 08414W 3924 07680 0361 -205 -453 329020 020 017 000 00
211230 2742N 08411W 3927 07675 0363 -205 -453 331020 020 018 000 00
211300 2741N 08408W 3926 07678 0364 -205 -454 332020 020 017 000 00
211330 2741N 08405W 3926 07681 0365 -205 -453 334019 019 018 000 00
211400 2740N 08403W 3894 07739 0366 -211 -453 337018 019 021 000 00
211430 2740N 08400W 3856 07811 0370 -218 -453 340018 018 018 000 00
211500 2739N 08357W 3807 07903 0372 -226 -454 341018 018 020 000 00
211530 2739N 08354W 3770 07977 0376 -233 -456 340018 018 018 000 00
211600 2738N 08352W 3758 08001 0379 -235 -457 342018 018 016 000 00
211630 2738N 08349W 3758 08002 0382 -235 -458 343018 018 016 000 00
211700 2737N 08346W 3759 08001 0381 -235 -458 344018 019 015 000 00

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 012129
AF306 1216A NOEL HDOB 11 20071101
211730 2737N 08343W 3758 08002 0381 -235 -459 345019 019 015 000 00
211800 2736N 08341W 3759 08000 0381 -235 -460 346019 019 014 000 00
211830 2736N 08338W 3758 08002 0381 -235 -461 347019 019 020 000 00
211900 2735N 08335W 3758 08001 0381 -235 -460 347020 020 014 000 00
211930 2735N 08333W 3759 08000 0380 -235 -460 347021 021 013 001 00
212000 2734N 08330W 3756 08005 0380 -235 -458 348021 021 016 000 00
212030 2734N 08327W 3759 08000 0380 -235 -455 351020 020 020 000 00
212100 2733N 08324W 3759 07999 0380 -235 -454 353019 019 014 001 00
212130 2733N 08322W 3758 08000 0379 -235 -452 354018 018 017 000 00
212200 2732N 08319W 3759 07997 0377 -235 -447 353018 019 017 000 00
212230 2732N 08316W 3758 07997 0376 -236 -444 353019 019 023 000 00
212300 2731N 08314W 3762 07991 0377 -235 -444 355019 019 021 000 00
212330 2731N 08311W 3758 08000 0377 -239 -441 356019 019 022 000 00
212400 2730N 08308W 3758 07998 0377 -239 -438 355019 019 019 000 00
212430 2730N 08305W 3760 07995 0377 -239 -435 358018 019 018 000 00
212500 2729N 08303W 3762 07992 0376 -240 -433 358019 019 017 001 00
212530 2729N 08300W 3759 07996 0375 -240 -430 358020 020 016 001 00
212600 2728N 08257W 3759 07995 0375 -240 -430 001021 021 017 000 00
212630 2728N 08255W 3759 07995 0374 -239 -433 003021 021 013 001 00
212700 2727N 08252W 3759 07992 0373 -239 -443 000021 021 013 001 00

[wxman57]

Looks like my area of SW NB/SE Maine could get nailed. I can't remember a hurricane related storm directly affecting the region this late in the year; meaning the center actually making landfall and not staying out to sea south of Nova Scotia. Could get nasty.

It won't be tropical in any stretch of the imagination by the time it reaches you. Just a purely extratropical storm like any other that forms from this time of year until late spring. And I think it will get nasty, not "could".

[Air Force Met]

Looks like my area of SW NB/SE Maine could get nailed. I can't remember a hurricane related storm directly affecting the region this late in the year; meaning the center actually making landfall and not staying out to sea south of Nova Scotia. Could get nasty.

It won't be tropical in any stretch of the imagination by the time it reaches you. Just a purely extratropical storm like any other that forms from this time of year until late spring. And I think it will get nasty, not "could".

Exactly. It won't be any different than any other sub 980mb ET storm you guys get up there...exactly the same...except a little warmer maybe since you guys usually get them a little later in the year.

[HenkL]

URNT15 KNHC 012139
AF306 1216A NOEL HDOB 12 20071101
212730 2727N 08249W 3759 07992 0372 -239 -440 000021 022 010 001 00
212800 2726N 08247W 3759 07991 0371 -239 -444 001021 022 002 000 00
212830 2726N 08244W 3759 07989 0370 -239 -450 001022 022 027 000 00
212900 2725N 08241W 3758 07990 0369 -238 -455 002022 022 062 004 03
212930 2725N 08239W 3759 07990 0369 -239 -464 002022 022 070 000 00
213000 2724N 08236W 3759 07989 0369 -239 -470 001023 023 123 000 03
213030 2724N 08233W 3759 07989 0368 -240 -472 000023 023 999 999 03
213100 2722N 08231W 3759 07987 0369 -240 -467 000024 024 999 999 03
213130 2721N 08229W 3758 07990 0368 -240 -464 000024 025 999 999 03
213200 2719N 08226W 3759 07989 0369 -240 -466 000025 025 999 999 03
213230 2718N 08224W 3759 07989 0369 -240 -468 001025 025 999 999 03
213300 2716N 08222W 3759 07987 0368 -240 -462 001026 026 999 999 03
213330 2714N 08220W 3759 07986 0367 -240 -459 358026 026 999 999 03
213400 2712N 08218W 3758 07989 0365 -236 -474 356025 026 999 999 03
213430 2710N 08217W 3758 07980 0359 -235 -501 358027 027 999 999 03
213500 2707N 08216W 3759 07978 0357 -235 -522 358027 027 999 999 03
213530 2705N 08215W 3759 07974 0356 -235 -533 358025 026 999 999 03
213600 2703N 08214W 3759 07975 0355 -234 -539 355023 024 999 999 03
213630 2700N 08213W 3758 07975 0355 -231 -543 350020 021 999 999 03
213700 2658N 08212W 3759 07976 0356 -230 -544 348017 018 133 000 03

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 012149
AF306 1216A NOEL HDOB 13 20071101
213730 2655N 08211W 3758 07979 0358 -230 -541 341016 016 152 000 03
213800 2653N 08210W 3759 07979 0358 -230 -538 335017 018 131 000 00
213830 2651N 08209W 3757 07981 0359 -231 -535 331018 019 105 000 00
213900 2648N 08207W 3760 07977 0360 -230 -532 322017 018 070 000 00
213930 2646N 08206W 3757 07981 0358 -230 -530 318016 017 038 000 00
214000 2643N 08205W 3758 07977 0357 -230 -528 319017 017 050 000 03
214030 2642N 08203W 3759 07976 0357 -227 -526 307017 017 999 999 03
214100 2640N 08200W 3758 07977 0357 -224 -525 298017 018 999 999 03
214130 2639N 08158W 3759 07975 0357 -220 -524 295018 018 999 999 03
214200 2638N 08156W 3760 07974 0356 -218 -523 290019 019 999 999 03
214230 2637N 08153W 3759 07975 0356 -215 -523 286019 019 160 000 03
214300 2635N 08151W 3759 07977 0356 -212 -523 284019 020 999 999 03
214330 2634N 08148W 3759 07976 0357 -210 -523 280020 020 999 999 03
214400 2633N 08146W 3758 07978 0357 -210 -523 279021 021 999 999 03
214430 2631N 08143W 3759 07977 0359 -207 -523 277021 021 999 999 03
214500 2630N 08141W 3759 07977 0357 -205 -523 274022 022 999 999 03
214530 2629N 08138W 3759 07977 0357 -205 -523 274023 023 999 999 03
214600 2628N 08136W 3759 07976 0356 -205 -524 273024 024 999 999 03
214630 2626N 08133W 3759 07975 0356 -201 -524 271025 025 999 999 03
214700 2625N 08130W 3758 07976 0354 -199 -524 271026 027 999 999 03
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 012159
AF306 1216A NOEL HDOB 14 20071101
214730 2624N 08128W 3760 07971 0354 -194 -525 267027 027 999 999 03
214800 2622N 08125W 3759 07975 0354 -191 -525 264026 027 999 999 03
214830 2621N 08123W 3758 07974 0353 -190 -524 262027 027 999 999 03
214900 2620N 08120W 3759 07972 0353 -190 -524 262028 028 999 999 03
214930 2618N 08118W 3759 07975 0354 -187 -523 260028 028 999 999 03
215000 2617N 08115W 3758 07977 0356 -185 -523 259028 029 999 999 03
215030 2616N 08113W 3758 07976 0356 -184 -522 259029 030 999 999 03
215100 2614N 08110W 3759 07973 0355 -184 -522 259031 031 999 999 03
215130 2613N 08108W 3758 07977 0356 -180 -521 262031 031 999 999 03
215200 2612N 08105W 3758 07977 0355 -179 -520 261032 032 999 999 03
215230 2610N 08103W 3758 07977 0356 -175 -519 262033 033 999 999 03
215300 2609N 08100W 3759 07975 0356 -175 -518 261034 034 999 999 03
215330 2608N 08058W 3758 07977 0356 -175 -517 261034 035 999 999 03
215400 2606N 08055W 3759 07975 0356 -175 -517 262035 036 999 999 03
215430 2605N 08052W 3760 07975 0356 -175 -516 259035 036 999 999 03
215500 2604N 08050W 3758 07978 0356 -175 -515 261035 036 999 999 03
215530 2602N 08047W 3759 07978 0358 -175 -514 260036 036 999 999 03
215600 2601N 08045W 3759 07978 0358 -174 -514 261037 037 999 999 03
215630 2559N 08042W 3759 07978 0358 -170 -513 263038 039 999 999 03
215700 2558N 08040W 3758 07981 0359 -170 -513 264040 040 999 999 03
$$
;

[Squarethecircle]

The visible now looks like a circle, wow. CDO is in place as well. I don't think any eye features are forming though. The convection is still sub eighty near the center, and the different layers almost look like concentric circles. Hurricane at eight, maybe?

[HURAKAN]

[MiamiensisWx]

The plane will be flying over Miami en route to Noel (next several minutes), so you could probably spot the reconnaissance flight if conditions were clear across the area.

[Air Force Met]

The visible now looks like a circle, wow. CDO is in place as well. I don't think any eye features are forming though. The convection is still sub eighty near the center, and the different layers almost look like concentric circles. Hurricane at eight, maybe?

Actually the visible looks like an elongated mess....and the center is located on the far SW side of that pretty ball of convection. Chances of a hurricane at 8? I would say 0% given the structure. Its possible that some baroclinic processes could occur to lower the pressure enough for them to find the winds (maybe) to support it...but then it would be very close to being an extratropical cyclone and I do not think the NHC would pull the trigger on a hurricane.

[Praxus]

Wow a hurricane force storm forecast for eastern canada... hopefully won't be another Juan.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 012209
AF306 1216A NOEL HDOB 15 20071101
215730 2557N 08037W 3759 07979 0359 -166 -512 262042 042 999 999 03
215800 2555N 08034W 3758 07981 0359 -165 -511 261042 043 999 999 03
215830 2554N 08032W 3759 07978 0359 -165 -510 260043 043 999 999 03
215900 2552N 08029W 3758 07982 0360 -164 -510 261042 042 999 999 03
215930 2551N 08027W 3759 07978 0359 -162 -509 261042 043 999 999 03
220000 2550N 08024W 3759 07982 0361 -160 -508 260040 041 999 999 03
220030 2548N 08022W 3759 07979 0361 -160 -508 260040 040 999 999 03
220100 2547N 08019W 3758 07985 0363 -160 -507 260040 040 999 999 03
220130 2545N 08017W 3758 07985 0364 -160 -506 260040 040 999 999 03
220200 2544N 08014W 3759 07984 0364 -160 -505 261040 041 999 999 03
220230 2542N 08012W 3759 07984 0364 -158 -505 260040 041 080 000 03
220300 2541N 08009W 3759 07984 0365 -155 -504 260041 041 060 002 03
220330 2539N 08007W 3758 07988 0365 -155 -503 261042 042 049 000 00
220400 2537N 08005W 3759 07984 0365 -155 -503 262042 042 037 000 00
220430 2536N 08002W 3759 07985 0365 -155 -502 262043 043 033 000 00
220500 2534N 08000W 3759 07984 0365 -155 -502 262043 043 033 000 00
220530 2533N 07957W 3759 07984 0364 -155 -501 263043 043 036 000 00
220600 2531N 07955W 3759 07984 0365 -155 -500 264043 044 028 001 00
220630 2529N 07952W 3758 07986 0365 -155 -500 265043 043 036 000 00
220700 2528N 07950W 3759 07985 0366 -155 -500 266043 043 031 000 00
$$
;

[Derek Ortt]

I'm seeing rotation near 26.2N and 76.8W. A litle NE of the 5 p.m. position.

I do expect there to be hurricane force winds shortly. This looks like a classic case of a trough advecting PV over the storm allowing for intensification (see Hanley et al., 2001 for more information on this process)

[Cyclenall]

Wow a hurricane force storm forecast for eastern canada... hopefully won't be another Juan.

I wonder how much it will deepen before reaching eastern Canada.

[JonathanBelles]

I think either the 8pm or the 11pm it will be close to Hurricane Status.