CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Jagno]

Dean's mere potential has every single Gulf Coast resident waiting to exhale.

[sunnyday]

Phil Ferro's not the only met saying a northern turn. I read about that possiblility several days ago.

[colbroe]

I live in Barbados and i have been tracking this storm and it looks like it is consolidating thge eye further south and have also gone to the left by .1 of a degree it is now at 13 .49.3 does not look good for the islands , good thing it the pressure has not dropped any further , but i guess as soon as the eye consolidates it will strengthen

[hial2]

Will someone please explain to me why the models moved the forecasted path of Dean so far South since yesterday? What changed? Why didn't the models see it before today? My questions is if everyone is so sure the storm is going to move west toward the Yucatan, can't that idea change by tomorrow, also?

The chances that a 5 day forecast is right on the nose is zero...however,look at the tendencies from run to run to give you an idea of the path

[Steve]

>>Will someone please explain to me why the models moved the forecasted path of Dean so far South since yesterday?

That question is answered in the 5:00pm discussion. They really latched onto the expanding subtropical ridge and ride Dean along its southern periphery.

>>Why didn't the models see it before today?

Some of them did. Some of them didn't.

>>My questions is if everyone is so sure the storm is going to move west toward the Yucatan, can't that idea change by tomorrow, also?

I'm not so sure of anything this far out and no one but the seasoned pros should be. Anything can change. We've all seen storms that whose solutions were slam dunks - or so we thought, only to do something nobody thought of. The tropics are full of surprises, so the best advice I can give on it is whenever you think you've seen it all and got it figured out, a system is going to come along and do something you never expected, the models never expected and the NHC didn't expect either.



Steve

[btangy]

Will someone please explain to me why the models moved the forecasted path of Dean so far South since yesterday? What changed? Why didn't the models see it before today? My questions is if everyone is so sure the storm is going to move west toward the Yucatan, can't that idea change by tomorrow, also?

Had to do with the handling of the East Coast trough. Whereas the models were showing a more amplified (deeper) trough in previous runs (esp. the GFS), the pattern is more progressive (zonal) and the westerlies are confined much further N. This could obviously change in subsequent runs, but the consensus is for a more progressive solution right now keeping more ridging in the subtropics and steering Dean more toward the W than N.

[colbroe]

I live in Barbados and i have been tracking this storm and it looks like it is consolidating thge eye further south and have also gone to the left by .1 of a degree it is now at 13 .49.3 does not look good for the islands , good thing it the pressure has not dropped any further , but i guess as soon as the eye consolidates it will strengthen

[sunnyday]

Thank you, but the path changed so much it's sort of scary to see the variance in the models in 24 hours.

[deltadog03]

outflow is REALLY improving now. Dean is getting ready to hit that upper anti-cyclone!!

[HURAKAN]

[bvigal]

Thanks for all the well-wishes!!
{edited by bvigal} Yes, it has been pointed out to me that I was rude, so my apologies. And before I replied to the PM, he deleted the rude part on my behalf. Thank-you. {end}
Now, I live in the islands, and daily advise many in the marine industry. So here's my somewhat informed, somewhat experienced opinion, for my neighbors and friends:

00z Shear map, I don't see the mid-upper anticyclone that was there earlier. Maybe that is good news for less intensification than earlier predicted. Still amazed at amount of SAL, but looks like Dean is strong enough now it will not have much effect, and it is organizing nicely. This is no surprise, it was forecast to be a hurricane by 2am local time. Floater loop shows storm still on forecast track from 5pm. 0z model values of 13.0N 49.2W are 612 nautical miles from Bridgetown, 694 from Castries, 704 from Fort-de-France.

From emergency management impact planner. Just to give some perspective, if current track holds, projected impacts from 0z models and last advisory:
Antigua west to Puerto Rico will have sustained winds below 30kts, wave heights of 7-9 feet, bordering on 10-12ft, with south coast of PR having 1-3ft storm surge on top of that, with rains 1-3inches. Of course, this is all inexact, but is based upon the number of miles away from the storm track as it goes by, storm size, speed, etc.

Now lets talk about our friends further south, Martinique and Dominica - 3-6 inches rain, locally heavier, 4-6ft storm surge on top of 21-25ft seas, sustained winds 50-75mph, 75-85mph or higher (on this track) as storm will follow the passage between the two islands, which would be really nice, sparing both islands the brunt of the storm.

[Acral]

Will someone please explain to me why the models moved the forecasted path of Dean so far South since yesterday? What changed? Why didn't the models see it before today? My questions is if everyone is so sure the storm is going to move west toward the Yucatan, can't that idea change by tomorrow, also?

Bingo. I expect to see one or two more radical shifts in the models. As i understand it, the change was reflected by a change in the estimated location of the center of circulation and estimates that the ridge would not be as strong as it is now thought to become.

Dennis is a good example, as was Katrina. (I still remember that talking head on the news ..not a met.. saying "Gulf Shores will cease to exist"...and Dennis ended up hitting the relatively low populated area at Navarre Beach, Florida. And remember when Katrina was marching around? Many, including pros, were suggesting an Ivan like strike, but credit to the NHC on that one, they jived up on a LA/MS almost as soon as she got done killing that poor lady in Florida.

[weatherguru18]

I'm almost willing to bet we will have Hurricane Dean at 11pm. If not, winds will increase to 70mph.

[canegrl04]

The models are in surprisingly good agreement on Dean's path. This does not mean that it won't change, but it does appear that it will continue in the general direction of Cozumel, Mexico or south of there.

I think its still too early to be saying its going to Mexico.By the weekend,the forecasted path will be more reliable.Especially after a recon is done.

[cedwards]

The chances that a 5 day forecast is right on the nose is zero...however,look at the tendencies from run to run to give you an idea of the path

Exactly. I like to plot out the track trends and interpolate the next forecast track.

A few days ago most models had it turning northward quite a bit. they have been shifting southward ever since.

Can that change? -- Sure, but chances are, it will stay south of Florida. (In my opinion).

[btangy]

Thank you, but the path changed so much it's sort of scary to see the variance in the models in 24 hours.

It's the nature of the atmosphere. Small perturbations initially can grow very quickly and lead to wildly different solutions. Although it seems like a huge variance for Dean, it actually isn't that severe. Jeanne was one storm with some huge uncertainty, for example. I remember the tracks from model to model and run to run were absolutely like a toddler's crayola drawing.

[wiggles]

He looks like he is getting his act together

[Acral]

Recon is the key to tightening up the model runs, but even then as I outlined in an earlier post, the models can swing wildly. I personally do not have as much faith in a ridge eliminating a particular area from a strike, but that could be my amatuer status (i.e. lack of knowledge).

[SaveNola]

I'm almost willing to bet we will have Hurricane Dean at 11pm. If not, winds will increase to 70mph.

The last few hours have been pretty impressive havent they? Doubt they'll upgrade now, but if this continues through the night, no doubt by 11am tomorrow.

[RL3AO]

60 kts at 11 with 65 or 70 at 5am. But we have to be wary of rapid intensification now because conditions have ripened.