CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Acral]

I have been saying tommorrow, and someone pointed out that 2am would be tommorrow, hehe, but seriously, I think a possible upgrade at 11am... could be wrong.

[weatherguru18]

At the very least I'm expecting Hurricane Watches to be hoisted with this advisory for the Lessar Antillies.

[stormhorn]

I think we are going to wake up and say, Holy Crap!!


Janet

[Jagno]

When is recon scheduled? I know it's probably here somewhere but 97 pages is alot to go through.

[cpdaman]

yup dean seems to be obviously organizing and expanding his core

and yes the blob shifted south to consolidate with the other blob earlier (basically wiping out any slight northward component earlier)

Dean be a good boy and stay the heck away from FL

i like hurricane's , heck i get excited when one is head my way, but NOT ONE LIKE THIS

[Brent]

When is recon scheduled? I know it's probably here somewhere but 97 pages is alot to go through.

2pm ET tomorrow.

[ConvergenceZone]

Will someone please explain to me why the models moved the forecasted path of Dean so far South since yesterday? What changed? Why didn't the models see it before today? My questions is if everyone is so sure the storm is going to move west toward the Yucatan, can't that idea change by tomorrow, also?

While this isn't an official forecast, basically, there's forecast to be a ridge building in the gulf which will protect the northern and eastern gulf from the hurricane(this happens alot), which will direct the storm towards Mexico, although it's hard to say if it will be on the northern/central or southern part of Mexico....We've seen this happen with many many storms. It really doesn't matter though as it's still going to do alot of damage no matter where it hits if it's cat 3 or greater....It does however seen like the models are coming into more of an ageement of it going towards Mexico than anytime before. I'd be more skeptical if they were all over there place, but they are really starting to consolidate, so they are seeing that ridge as well ....

[SouthFloridawx]

When is recon scheduled? I know it's probably here somewhere but 97 pages is alot to go through.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=97108

[wzrgirl1]

yup dean seems to be obviously organizing and expanding his core

and yes the blob shifted south to consolidate with the other blob earlier (basically wiping out any slight northward component earlier)

Dean be a good boy and stay the heck away from FL

i like hurricane's , heck i get excited when one is head my way, but NOT ONE LIKE THIS

florida is safe on this one......it's the next few that i am worried about

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
0300 UTC THU AUG 16 2007

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS...ST. LUCIA...
MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...AND ST.
EUSTATIUS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 50.2W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 50.2W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 49.2W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.6N 53.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.2N 57.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.8N 61.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.3N 64.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.3N 71.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 17.8N 78.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N 85.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 50.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cpdaman]

P.S you gotta love this satellite view

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... verlay=off

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM AST WED AUG 15 2007

...DEAN STRENGTHENS...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES...

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS...ST. LUCIA...
MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...AND ST.
EUSTATIUS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TOMORROW
MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST OR ABOUT 625
MILES...1005 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE DEAN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...13.1 N...50.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[ajaxw]

Can anyone give me any information / statistics on the CLP5 model? A link would do fine as well. Thanks.

CLIPER stands for climatology and persistence. As the name implies, it incorporates persistence (the current storm motion) and climatology (the average movement of storms at the current location with a given strength at a certain time of year). The HRD FAQ describes it as:

The basic model that is used as a "no-skill" forecast to compare other models against is CLIPER (CLImatology and PERsistence), which is a multiple regression statistical model that best utilizes the persistence of the current motion and also incorporates climatological track information (Aberson 1998). Surprisingly, CLIPER was difficult to beat with numerical model forecasts until the 1980s.

In Dean's case, part of the reason for the relatively north track is the current WNW motion. That is combined with the mean location of the Bermuda high. It does not take into account the actual current atmospheric conditions, which favor a more westerly movement.

For a technical description, see http://ams.allenpress.com/archive/1520-0434/13/4/pdf/i1520-0434-13-4-1005.pdf, which describes how the old version of CLIPER was extended to produce 5 day forecasts.

[weatherguru18]

P.S you gotta love this satellite view

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... verlay=off

I'm sorry to say, but I can't help but think that this is identical to how Katrina looked as it was crossing Florida. Look what it grew into!!

[Brent]

Hurricane is imminent, probably by 5am at the latest.

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS...ST. LUCIA...
MARTINIQUE...GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...AND ST.
EUSTATIUS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

[PTPatrick]

So...I find it amazing that such autumn like air will be coming through the NE and MW...and yet not cause a weakness strong enough to pull Dean up. i guess the autumn air is really bottled up there but still...

[SouthFloridawx]

Man your fast...

[cpdaman]

So...I find it amazing that such autumn like air will be coming through the NE and MW...and yet not cause a weakness strong enough to pull Dean up. i guess the autumn air is really bottled up there but still...

and that's why i am still a bit "antsy" in FL

[Steve]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

I missed a few pages having some stuff to do, but the 18z GFDL was the first model that gave me any concern. I know some of the pro guys like that model. I definitely don't like any run clipping the NE coast of the Yuctan while bending a little from WNW to NW.

Steve

[CrazyC83]

I agree with 60 kt at this point. Almost, but not quite, a hurricane.