Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[JonathanBelles]

Noel's circulation should drag cooler fall like weather into Florida..unfortunately no rain,though

It is supposed to bring in cool weather to the entire EC along with High pressure and cyclone.

[CrazyC83]

Declared extratropical by Environment Canada. The 5 pm NHC advisory should be the last...

[HURAKAN]

[cpdaman]

lets hope this thing stays away from north carolina and the long island cape and maine.

atlantic canada you guys are used to this kind of thing, right ...maybe....close

[CrazyC83]

lets hope this thing stays away from north carolina and the long island cape and maine.

atlantic canada you guys are used to this kind of thing, right ...maybe....close

Well, kinda, but they really did get surprised by Hurricane Juan in 2003...

[Thunder44]

000
WTNT21 KNHC 022049
TCMAT1
HURRICANE NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
2100 UTC FRI NOV 02 2007

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

INTERESTS ALONG THE U. S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD
SHOULD CONSULT STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NWS
FORECAST OFFICE. INTERESTS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER OF
ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 72.4W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT.......210NE 300SE 90SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..540NE 420SE 300SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 72.4W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 73.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 34.5N 71.4W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 240SE 180SW 180NW.
34 KT...300NE 420SE 240SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 39.4N 69.3W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT...240NE 360SE 180SW 180NW.
34 KT...420NE 480SE 300SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 44.7N 65.7W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT...300NE 300SE 240SW 180NW.
34 KT...480NE 540SE 420SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 50.6N 61.1W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...300NE 240SE 240SW 0NW.
34 KT...480NE 540SE 480SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 61.0N 52.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 240SE 180SW 240NW.
34 KT...240NE 360SE 300SW 360NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 68.0N 46.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 72.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN

This is not the last advisory.

[JonathanBelles]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 022051
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 PM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007

...NOEL BECOMING A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.

INTERESTS ALONG THE U. S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD
SHOULD CONSULT STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NWS
FORECAST OFFICE. INTERESTS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD
CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER OF
ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST OR ABOUT 450 MILES...
725 KM...WEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 320 MILES...510 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND
IT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NOEL IS TRANSITIONING TO A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345
MILES...555 KM. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN SIZE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE DATA WAS
980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS TO 6 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...31.4 N...72.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN

000
WTNT41 KNHC 022052
TCDAT1
HURRICANE NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 PM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007

NOEL IS MAKING THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THIS
AFTERNOON. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AROUND 17Z SHOWED PEAK
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 90 KT...THOUGH SFMR OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT
THE INTENSITY IS STILL NEAR 70 KT. THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO
INDICATED THAT NOEL STILL DISPLAYED A WARM CORE AND A FAIRLY TIGHT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS. SINCE THEN...THE INNER CORE CONVECTION
HAS SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISHED AND IS NOW INSUFFICIENT TO QUALIFY
NOEL AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE
SPACE DIAGRAM SUGGESTS THAT NOEL'S THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE IS
BEGINNING TO BECOME ASYMMETRIC AND FRONTAL. THUS THIS WILL BE THE
LAST NOEL ADVISORY.

CURRENT MOTION IS 040/17. THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE
SMALL SPREAD...THOUGH THE 12Z SUITE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MORE WEIGHT ON THE LATTER.

BAROCLINIC FORCING SHOULD FURTHER INTENSIFY NOEL AS AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE AS IT ACCELERATES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. ALL OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS BOTH DEEPEN THE CYCLONE AND EXPAND THE HIGH WIND
AREAS. THE INTENSITY AND SIZE FORECASTS ARE BASED UPON THE
CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 31.4N 72.4W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 03/0600Z 34.5N 71.4W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 03/1800Z 39.4N 69.3W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 04/0600Z 44.7N 65.7W 80 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 04/1800Z 50.6N 61.1W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 05/1800Z 61.0N 52.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 06/1800Z 68.0N 46.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...31.4 N...72.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

[Thunder44]

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...31.4 N...72.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

I'm little confused. The Marine Advisory say there will be another one issued at 3z. Are they just going stop issuing public advisory or the whole package all together?

[JonathanBelles]

I'm little confused. The Marine Advisory say there will be another one issued at 3z. Are they just going stop issuing public advisory or the whole package all together?

looks like just the public adv.

[Cyclenall]

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 72.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

For the forecast advisories they are continuing.

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 022052
TCDAT1
HURRICANE NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 PM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007

NOEL IS MAKING THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THIS
AFTERNOON. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AROUND 17Z SHOWED PEAK
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 90 KT...THOUGH SFMR OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT
THE INTENSITY IS STILL NEAR 70 KT. THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO
INDICATED THAT NOEL STILL DISPLAYED A WARM CORE AND A FAIRLY TIGHT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS. SINCE THEN...THE INNER CORE CONVECTION
HAS SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISHED AND IS NOW INSUFFICIENT TO QUALIFY
NOEL AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE
SPACE DIAGRAM SUGGESTS THAT NOEL'S THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE IS
BEGINNING TO BECOME ASYMMETRIC AND FRONTAL. THUS THIS WILL BE THE
LAST NOEL ADVISORY.

The discussion says the same about this being the last advisory.

[CrazyC83]

They corrected it and this is the last advisory indeed.

Responsibility now lies in the Ocean Prediction Center?

[crownweather]

The whole package....in which I disagree with, considering the impact this storm will have on Eastern New England and the Canadian Maritimes tomorrow and tomorrow night. Yes, this system is now extratropical....but they should still be issuing advisories/warnings/etc on it.....it would make a bigger impact on the public psyche. The NHC issues advisories on Sub-Tropical storms....why not extra-tropical systems that have a significant impact on the public.

[Thunder44]

They corrected it and this is the last advisory indeed.

I suspected that as well.

[CrazyC83]

What will it be for Noel - the until 2013? or the forever?

Has Haiti or the Dominican Republic ever retired a hurricane name?

[wxman57]

The whole package....in which I disagree with, considering the impact this storm will have on Eastern New England and the Canadian Maritimes tomorrow and tomorrow night. Yes, this system is now extratropical....but they should still be issuing advisories/warnings/etc on it.....it would make a bigger impact on the public psyche. The NHC issues advisories on Sub-Tropical storms....why not extra-tropical systems that have a significant impact on the public.

Should the NHC issue advisories through the winter on any cold-core low that develops in the Atlantic? Are gale warnings insufficient for residents along the east U.S. Coast with this low center or any other low during the rest of the winter? Is it the track graphic that's most important? Does it make a difference what the origin of a winter storm is?

I'm just trying to figure out what you (any of you here) think is most valuable in the NHC forecasts. I'm not saying a track forecast should not be issued for this storm or for any strong winter storm (we issue track forecasts for winter storms).

[HURAKAN]

I think crownweather is alluding to the fact that we don't get as much detailed information on extratropical cyclone as we do with tropical cyclones.

[btangy]

12Z GFS ensembles show 6 members tracking over Nantucket or Cape Cod, but otherwise a tight clustering with the mean close to the 40N/70W benchmark.



Mutli-model consensus also showing a further W track than the NHC, particularly through 30 hours as Noel interacts with the southern stream trough.

[cycloneye]

NOEL was a very interesting system even before it started as the low pressure that spawned it moved from the NE to SW thru the Virgin Islands and passed just South of Puerto Rico.From there it moved slowly while it became better organized near Haiti and the rest is history.I think that the ace for 2007 season went up a lot.Who have those updated stats?

NOEL is out of the picture but a new system may be brewing in the Caribbean.Go to Talking Tropics forum and see the 5:30 PM TWO.