Tropical Depression GABRIELLE:Discussions and Images

[emeraldislencguy]

it is it west of the forecast track what is the implication about landfall??

[BigA]

In a sense, whether this is the low level center or a decoupled midlevel center is probably not going to be particlularly important, given the rather feeble winds of this system. However, it does look like the general rain shield (and whatever spin we see on radar) is moving west, which should bring more good rain to eastern NC.

[UpTheCreek]

I think it's going to come in around the same spot as Isabel. Maybe a bit further south than that, perhaps AB or Emerald Isle or thereabouts during which it'll make it's swing north and northeast. That would help dump some rain here in New Bern!

[gotoman38]

I'm guessing (!) somewhere in the Core Banks S of Ocracoke Is. (probably on Portsmouth Is.) - that will put Hatteras Village and the Isabel Inlet area in a strong storm area given the windfield size.

[seahawkjd]

I know this has to be an illusion, but look at the swirl pattern of the darker orange

[canetracker]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
If you notice on the WV loop the ridge is in the shape of an upside down "U" and the trough is slowly approaching from the west. This is not allowing for much north movement at this time. IMO, it may move closer to land before being picked up by the approaching trough then moving north and east. Very possible it could come in a little south of what the forecasted track has now.

[brunota2003]

[img]avn image[/img]

I know this has to be an illusion, but look at the swirl pattern of the darker orange

Indeed I noticed that as well. Seems to be right around where the swirl on radar is, no?

[AJC3]

it is it west of the forecast track what is the implication about landfall??

I think if you look at the whole extent of Gabrielle's circulation, you'll come to the conclusion that the vortex being shown on radar is most likely a mesoscale feature rotating westward around the north side of the circulation.

Another point... looking at IR, the NW flank of the CDO is not making much progress toward the northwest and seems to be flattening some. I think there are two reasons for this: 1) The ridge, which was narrow to begin with, is eroding and retreating eastward. Hence, the system is slowing...which most likely is in advance of the forecast sharp turn toward the north and northeast. 2) Have a look-see at the dew points over NC...mostly lower to middle 60s with a smattering of mid-upper 50s. Dew points AOA 70F are pretty much confined to the OBX. So...there's some pretty dry air over the state (those who are living through the ongoing drought don't really need to be told this), and any rainfall being advected into this air mass, be it convective or stratiform debris, at least initially, is probably going to "sacrifice" itself moistening up the air mass. The most pronounced effects of Gabrielle look like they will be confined to eastern NC...pretty much what is being forecast.

[UpTheCreek]

Looks like an Isabel track to me, I am feeling more confident that it'll give us a good rain and stiff breeze here in New Bern tomorrow.

[gotoman38]

This is where I track the current direction - dead on for Pine Knoll Shores (Emerald Isle - Atlantic Beach - Morehead City)

[brunota2003]

Almost perfectly round:

[UpTheCreek]

I like your track, gotoman38, but it does have quite a bit of time to make it's turn before landfall. I'm with you on that one though, makes a dead run to New Bern or maybe Havelock during it's turn to points north.

[Wthrman13]

it is it west of the forecast track what is the implication about landfall??

I think if you look at the whole extent of Gabrielle's circulation, you'll come to the conclusion that the vortex being shown on radar is most likely a mesoscale feature rotating westward around the north side of the circulation.

Another point... looking at IR, the NW flank of the CDO is not making much progress toward the northwest and seems to be flattening some. I think there are two reasons for this: 1) The ridge, which was narrow to begin with, is eroding and retreating eastward. Hence, the system is slowing...which most likely is in advance of the forecast sharp turn toward the north and northeast. 2) Have a look-see at the dew points over NC...mostly lower to middle 60s with a smattering of mid-upper 50s. Dew points AOA 70F are pretty much confined to the OBX. So...there's some pretty dry air over the state (those who are living through the ongoing drought don't really need to be told this), and any rainfall being advected into this air mass, be it convective or stratiform debris, at least initially, is probably going to "sacrifice" itself moistening up the air mass. The most pronounced effects of Gabrielle look like they will be confined to eastern NC...pretty much what is being forecast.

I think you are right about the mesoscale vortex, especially given that it appears to be tracking due west at the moment. What will be interesting is to see how this continues to evolve tonight, as the circulation is pretty vigorous.

[brunota2003]

I'm surprised no one has made an obs thread for NC...

EDIT: How much of the LLC (NHC one) is still exposed? Looks like 3/4 of it is covered in the image below...

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[UpTheCreek]

I'm surprised no one has made an obs thread for NC...

Go for it!

Still quite warm here tonight, 77 degrees right now.

[chadtm80]

Almost perfectly round:

First one to say it has gone annular gets banned

[gotoman38]

I'm surprised no one has made an obs thread for NC...

Go for it!

Still quite warm here tonight, 77 degrees right now.

I'd say go for it - but there are only a few of us posting on here - good thing this isn't a FL-TX game! LOL

79 calm and DRY up here.

[srainhoutx]

Almost perfectly round:

First one to say it has gone annular gets banned

[Tstormwatcher]

Pressure's still pretty high at 1014mb here too.